(05-12-2023, 02:46 PM)Caldrac Wrote:

(05-12-2023, 02:34 PM)Bullseye Wrote: As it stands now, the main concern i have is that the relatively easy schedule may end up masking defensive shortcomings.

Last year, our pass rush was iffy.

I'm not sure we got any better, and it's possible we took a step back in the secondary.

That said, it's the NFL.  Can't take anything for granted.

From initial appearances, it looks as though the Jaguars are poised to have a very good season.  But a lot still has to go right for us to have the kind of season we want.  We have to be on point in our divisional games and games against the NFC South.  We have to be at the top of our games to beat teams like K.C., Buffahole, Cincinnati, Baltimore, San Francisco and and Pittsburgh.  Good health must be our ally.

If we beat the teams we "should" beat, we should have about 11 or so wins.

2 vs Indy, Houston, and Trashville=6 wins
1 each vs the NFC South (NO, Tampa, Atlanta, and Carolina=4 wins,
1 vs Cleveland (though a very tough game, especially if Watson is back to his pre holdout/suspension form)

If we win these "winnable" games that's 11 wins off the bat.

If we can evenly split the games against KC, Buffahole, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pukesburgh and San Francisco, that would leave us with a 14-3 record.

How did we take a step back in the secondary? Just curious. We only lost three players in the off season. Jawaan Taylor at RT, Arden Key at DE (rotational basis) and Shaq Griffin at CB (good riddance, his last play as a Jaguar will forever be Alec Pierce roasting him for the go ahead TD in a game that would have potentially eliminated the stress and need to win the home finale)

I don't think we have lost anything if I am being completely honest. I think with the majority of this roster returning in year two with a coaching staff that pulled some pretty impressive feats with a team that had just come off from back-to-back number one overall selections in these last two drafts? 

The sky's the limit in my opinion. I think we did get better. We added Ridley last year which should stagger down the stress for Kirk and Jones. We added a legitimate H-Back in Strange to allow more flexibility in the ground game and misdirection aspect of Pederson's offense which should only enable Engram to continue adding onto his abilities as a pass catcher in other capacities. 

We added Harrison at RT. We added Bigsby who SHOULD be a competent #2 behind Etienne and that's with Hasty and Johnson onboard already to keep the rotation interesting and competent. I think Parish, who was the 240th pick and last pick of our draft class? I am willing to be he flashes his speed, strength and hands in addition to special teams ability and he ultimately ends up being our FB. 

I just see a lot of power offense being added to this team this offseason to counterbalance the aerial attack that Pederson coveted last year with Lawrence. I think we'll be able to set the terms with any opponent now and we should be able to bleed clocks dry and be even more effective in the play action game against these bigger opponents with bigger names at the QB position. 

I think 11 wins should be the minimum expectation and most fans would be content with that. If they get anything close to 13, 14? We'll be talking Superbowl here leading up to week 18. Either outcome is possible. I just don't see how this team took a step back though at all this off season. The depth should be better. The starters should be more competent and comfortable in year two. 

Just have to stay healthy. I agree with that.

I would feel better about the secondary if we did more at CB/Nickel.

We're set with Tyson Campbell at one CB.  However, I am NOT sold on Darius Williams as the other starter, and the thought of Tre Herndon as the starting nickel at this point makes me queasy.  I wasn't comfortable with him years back when we traded Ramsey.  We got some good play out of him then, and he was a bit of a pleasant surprise to me then.  Now? Not sold on him at all.  To me, he got exploited a bit in coverage last year.  If we get away with him getting the majority of snaps at nickel, it's because of all of the inexperience and general ineptitude we'll likely  face at QB this year.  I shudder at the idea of him matched up against KC or Cincinnati's WRs.  Williams played well last year, but he's on the small side and he's getting up in age.  

The drafting of Antonio Johnson gives me some hope in that area.  If he is able to be utilized aggressively underneath like Polamalu and LeRoy Butler were back in the day, we'll have a playmaking element to the secondary-nickel back specifically-we haven't had in years.  But at this point, I'm not sure:

a.  Johnson has the physical skill to pull off such a role.  I like his selection in the draft, but until he does it, I'll have some doubt/question.

b.  Even assuming Johnson has the acumen to play a role similar to Butler/Polamalu, will the Jaguars' scheme play him simiarly or otherwise utilize him properly?

This becomes more important if the pass rush was as inconsistent as it was last year. At this stage, I don't know enough about the rookies to make any pronouncements either way. At this stage, though it's doubtful it'll happens, I'd rather re-sign Ngakoue or one of the other vets to add to our edge rushers. As long as this combination of weaknesses exist, or until I see this offense operate on all 8 cylinders with more experience and the additional talent in the offense, these areas of the defense are of concern in my mind.

Having said all of this, I believe whatever decline we may see in pass defense will be more than offset by the improvement in the offense.  Having this scheme entrenched here for a full year alone should mean overall improvement for the offense.  Add to that Calvin Ridley (who, at minimum, should be able to moderately improve over Marvin Jones), Tank Bigsby, who should give us better depth than we had last year, and I think our offense is in better shape than last year if Harrison transitions to RT as well as I think he can.

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