So far, I'd have to give Baalke a slightly above average grade  for the players (free agents and draft choices) he has acquired. The 2021 free agent class was amazing and the current team would not be talked about as a Super Bowl contender if not for that group. Not sure how much input had in the 2021 draft with Meyer as coach, but have to give him a lot of credit for that draft class. Etienne, Campbell, Little and Cisco couldn't have been topped after the obvious choice of Trevor. His grade drops due to last year's draft, which I believe will be considered very poor once the players have been in the league a few years from now. Harrison and possibly Antonio Johnson are the only two players who can have good NFL careers, while the Jaguars passed on several other players who are likely to be very good. I am still withholding judgement on the Walker pick, since he has improved and still has the potential to be a very good player.

---

I'm treating the Baalke era in Jacksonville separately from whatever he did before he got here.
He wasn't collaborating with Doug Pederson before, and I think that is making a difference. 

In that regard - I'm not going to lump him in with one group or category just yet until we see what comes of the 22 and 23 draft classes and how well he manages the cap with the pending big contracts looming. 

Also worth pointing out that Roseman, like every GM, has had some swings and misses.

Here are some first round duds going back to 2014 from Roseman:
Marcus Smith
Carson Wentz (~)
Andre Dillard
Jalen Reagor

2nd round duds:
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Sydney Jones
(there are 4 years with no 2nd round pick between 2014 and now)

3rd:
Davion Taylor ( 7 starts in 3 years - a lot like the Baalke/Muma scenario) 
Rasul Douglas (fizzled in Philly - journeyman hot and cold player now)
Josh Huff
Isaac Seumolu


Roseman has his share of wasted capital.

Nice breakdown, but imagine you're Khan. How do you respond to this offer?


Jeff Lurie: "Shad, fans are attributing our team's success over the years to Howie, not me. From one big ego exec to another, I think you can understand that simply can't fly."

Shad: "Well, cry me a river. The fans blamed me for the Urban Meyer debacle. I'll gladly clap in the background while Dougie P. hoists the Lombardi and then does a victory lap in the media bashing his time in Philly."

Lurie: "OK, Mr. Wise Guy. Let's cut to the chase: How about you send me a Firehouse sub with all the fixings and Baalke in exchange for a Philly cheese steak and Howie? I'm getting ready to promote Dave Caldwell. I think he's learned from his mistakes down there. He raved about Trent's coffee fetching skills. Whaddya say buddy?"

I don't know what to say to that. 
I wasn't trying to say Baalke is going to have the same success as Roseman. 
And teams don't trade GMs of course. 

I just think that we fans tend to put lots of weight on GM's bad moves (that we judge prematurely) and place very little weight on their successful moves, unless they happen to be making those successful ones for someone else. It's a classic "grass is always greener" dynamic in my opinion. 

GMs and OCs are our easiest scapegoats to rail against as modern NFL fans.

I'll feel more comfortable passing judgement on Baalke's overall work in Jax when the dust has settled on more of his acquisitions.

---

So far, I'd have to give Baalke a slightly above average grade  for the players (free agents and draft choices) he has acquired. The 2021 free agent class was amazing and the current team would not be talked about as a Super Bowl contender if not for that group. Not sure how much input had in the 2021 draft with Meyer as coach, but have to give him a lot of credit for that draft class. Etienne, Campbell, Little and Cisco couldn't have been topped after the obvious choice of Trevor. His grade drops due to last year's draft, which I believe will be considered very poor once the players have been in the league a few years from now. Harrison and possibly Antonio Johnson are the only two players who can have good NFL careers, while the Jaguars passed on several other players who are likely to be very good. I am still withholding judgement on the Walker pick, since he has improved and still has the potential to be a very good player.

Why do say this?  I didn't like some of the picks but why are they the only 2 that can have good careers?  These players aren't even half way through their rookie year yet. Lol

---

Nice breakdown, but imagine you're Khan. How do you respond to this offer?


Jeff Lurie: "Shad, fans are attributing our team's success over the years to Howie, not me. From one big ego exec to another, I think you can understand that simply can't fly."

Shad: "Well, cry me a river. The fans blamed me for the Urban Meyer debacle. I'll gladly clap in the background while Dougie P. hoists the Lombardi and then does a victory lap in the media bashing his time in Philly."

Lurie: "OK, Mr. Wise Guy. Let's cut to the chase: How about you send me a Firehouse sub with all the fixings and Baalke in exchange for a Philly cheese steak and Howie? I'm getting ready to promote Dave Caldwell. I think he's learned from his mistakes down there. He raved about Trent's coffee fetching skills. Whaddya say buddy?"

I don't know what to say to that. 
I wasn't trying to say Baalke is going to have the same success as Roseman. 
And teams don't trade GMs of course. 

I just think that we fans tend to put lots of weight on GM's bad moves (that we judge prematurely) and place very little weight on their successful moves, unless they happen to be making those successful ones for someone else. It's a classic "grass is always greener" dynamic in my opinion. 

GMs and OCs are our easiest scapegoats to rail against as modern NFL fans.

I'll feel more comfortable passing judgement on Baalke's overall work in Jax when the dust has settled on more of his acquisitions.

Agreed. 

As a reference let's first look at historical success.
1st Round -  OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%)  DB (64%)  QB (63%)  WR (58%)  DL (58%)  RB (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%)  DB (46%)  QB (27%)  WR (49%)  DL (26%)  RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%)  LB (34%) TE (39%)  DB (24%)  QB (17%)  WR (25%)  DL (27%)  RB (16%)
4th Round - OL (29%)  LB (16%) TE (33%)  DB (11%)  QB (8%)    WR(12%)    DL (37%)    RB (11%)
5th Round - OL (16%)  LB (4%)  TE (32%)  DB (17%)  QB (0%)    WR (16%)    DL (13%)  RB (9%) 
6th Round - OL (16%)  LB (5%)  TE (26%)  DB (8%)    QB (0%)    WR (9%)      DL (13%)    RB (6%)
7th Round - OL (9%)    LB (2%)  TE (0%)    DB (11%)  QB (6%)    WR (5%)      DL (3%)      RB (0%)

The odds are very long past the 4th round for most position groups. (except TE)  So all the peeps griping about not hitting a lot in the later rounds, I suspect you are relying heavily on your vast powers of Monday morning Qb'ing.

FOR FUN (if I can use that phase)  I compared Howie to Baalkies draft classes the last 3 years.  I compared are the picks on the 2023 53 man roster as a determining factor.

2021 - both are the same 6 of 9 or 67%
2022 - Howie was 3 for 5 or 60% (note only rounds 1,2 and 3 are on the roster the 2 6ths are not)
        - Baalkie was 5 for 6 (rounds 1,2, 3 are on the roster and one 6, one 7)

This gives Howie  a hit rate of 64% for those 2 years while Baalkie had a hit rate of 73%

2023 - Howie was 6 for 7 or 86%
        - Baalkie was 9 for 13 or 69%

For 3 years - Howie 71%
                 - Baalkie 71%
     
Bottom line the Jaguar drafting TEAM is doing a decent job of providing Doug with players. (opinion)

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

So far, I'd have to give Baalke a slightly above average grade  for the players (free agents and draft choices) he has acquired. The 2021 free agent class was amazing and the current team would not be talked about as a Super Bowl contender if not for that group. Not sure how much input had in the 2021 draft with Meyer as coach, but have to give him a lot of credit for that draft class. Etienne, Campbell, Little and Cisco couldn't have been topped after the obvious choice of Trevor. His grade drops due to last year's draft, which I believe will be considered very poor once the players have been in the league a few years from now. Harrison and possibly Antonio Johnson are the only two players who can have good NFL careers, while the Jaguars passed on several other players who are likely to be very good. I am still withholding judgement on the Walker pick, since he has improved and still has the potential to be a very good player.

Why do say this?  I didn't like some of the picks but why are they the only 2 that can have good careers?  These players aren't even half way through their rookie year yet.  Lol

Just my opinion based on what I have seen thus far from the draft class. Rounds 2-4 are an opportunity to select players who can immediately improve the team as well as become important parts of the team's nucleus moving forward. Despite being a Penn State fan, I felt that taking him in round 2 was a big reach. He will likely be a very good blocker who can be utilized in the short passing game; he'll never be a difference maker like Engram or the rookies taken before him like LaPorta, Musgrave and Mayer. The Bigsby pick didn't make sense since the running back room was already strong and Bigsby is nothing special. Miller is likely to never be more than a special teams player who fills in at linebacker due to injuries. 

It's certainly easy for fans to use 20-20 hindsight to criticize certain draft picks. I hope that several players taken in the 2021 draft eventually prove me wrong. Passing on O'Cyrus Torrence in round 2 and waiting until round 5 to take a pass rusher (an undersized one, at that) were the biggest mistakes, in my opinion. Tyler Lacy has shown some promise as did Cooper Hodges prior to his injury. If these two continue to improve and eventually become starters, I'll gladly admit that I underestimated this draft class.

---

Why do say this?  I didn't like some of the picks but why are they the only 2 that can have good careers?  These players aren't even half way through their rookie year yet.  Lol

Just my opinion based on what I have seen thus far from the draft class. Rounds 2-4 are an opportunity to select players who can immediately improve the team as well as become important parts of the team's nucleus moving forward. Despite being a Penn State fan, I felt that taking him in round 2 was a big reach. He will likely be a very good blocker who can be utilized in the short passing game; he'll never be a difference maker like Engram or the rookies taken before him like LaPorta, Musgrave and Mayer. The Bigsby pick didn't make sense since the running back room was already strong and Bigsby is nothing special. Miller is likely to never be more than a special teams player who fills in at linebacker due to injuries. 

It's certainly easy for fans to use 20-20 hindsight to criticize certain draft picks. I hope that several players taken in the 2021 draft eventually prove me wrong. Passing on O'Cyrus Torrence in round 2 and waiting until round 5 to take a pass rusher (an undersized one, at that) were the biggest mistakes, in my opinion. Tyler Lacy has shown some promise as did Cooper Hodges prior to his injury. If these two continue to improve and eventually become starters, I'll gladly admit that I underestimated this draft class.

I wasn't a fan of the picks either but they could absolutely help the team right now if they improved their play and be part of the nucleus, jmthey just have to be good players.  It's way to early to say they can't be good pros.  I wanted Dawand Jones who we could have gotten in the 3rd and he's been better than Harrison.  I wanted Porter, Torrence, Jones

---

Why do say this?  I didn't like some of the picks but why are they the only 2 that can have good careers?  These players aren't even half way through their rookie year yet.  Lol

Just my opinion based on what I have seen thus far from the draft class. Rounds 2-4 are an opportunity to select players who can immediately improve the team as well as become important parts of the team's nucleus moving forward. Despite being a Penn State fan, I felt that taking him in round 2 was a big reach. He will likely be a very good blocker who can be utilized in the short passing game; he'll never be a difference maker like Engram or the rookies taken before him like LaPorta, Musgrave and Mayer. The Bigsby pick didn't make sense since the running back room was already strong and Bigsby is nothing special. Miller is likely to never be more than a special teams player who fills in at linebacker due to injuries. 

It's certainly easy for fans to use 20-20 hindsight to criticize certain draft picks. I hope that several players taken in the 2021 draft eventually prove me wrong. Passing on O'Cyrus Torrence in round 2 and waiting until round 5 to take a pass rusher (an undersized one, at that) were the biggest mistakes, in my opinion. Tyler Lacy has shown some promise as did Cooper Hodges prior to his injury. If these two continue to improve and eventually become starters, I'll gladly admit that I underestimated this draft class.

Very fair assessment and this is where most fans stand in my opinion. With 13 selections overall at this team's disposal back in April? It sure feels underwhelming thus far. Now, I know it's easy to say that maybe they did try and trade up, etc. We'll never know the exact extent on how much effort or emphasis was put into those attempts if indeed true, but, again, pretty underwhelming at best so far at the midway point of the season. 

I think they did get it right with Harrison. I think Strange will eventually find his place in the passing game but it does appear he's been an adequate blocker and asset in the running game. Bigsby is still overwhelmingly concerning as he was the day we took him with the ball security issues. Which has carried over immediately into his early NFL career. The hidden gem of this class could very well end up being maybe Antonio Johnson in the long run. 

Time will tell as always. Baalke has shown an eye for free agency at the minimum so I'll give him that. It's hard to be overly critical when the team is on a winning streak and showing competency now for two years in a row. Something we haven't seen here in over a decade. Well, in truth, probably since the 1990's right? I know Jack Del Rio had, what? Maybe two or three play-off runs here during his career but I don't think it was ever back-to-back right off the top of my head without looking it up.

Pretty wild. This could be the first time our team has had a back-to-back play off run since 1998 and 1999. WOW.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I don't particularly like the term "screwed up".  I do think there's a number of picks where a different GM would have gone in a different direction which likely would have generated more benefit to the team.

I don't think Baalke has done a good job on Day Three of the draft.  In 2021, he had 4 draft picks on Day Three.  3 of the 4 are no longer on the team and the one exception is a tight end with 131 career receiving yards over the course of 2.5 seasons.  In 2022, 1 of the 3 picks is no longer on the 53 man roster.  Another one was cut from the 53 man roster during his rookie year.  Although he made the team this year, it still meant that after his rookie preseason, 31 other teams could have obtained his services for the league minimum salary and didn't want him.  It also means we could have likely had him for free if we didn't draft him.  As for 2023, again, I admit it's early, but if we're giving early grades, it's not particularly good.  We took 7 defensive players.  If I've done my math correctly, they've combined on defense for 4 combined tackles, 2 QB pressures, 1 pass defensed and 1 interception with the interception being a hail mary as time expired in garbage time with the game already won by the Jags.  Again, that's combined for 7 players through 8 games.   We also took a wide receiver with only a 5 yard punt return to his credit, an offensive lineman who hasn't played and a fullback/tight end who is no longer in the league.  I know there's been some injuries, but that's a lot of picks to generate virtually no production.  

As for recent early picks that have been questionable:

Travon Walker (#1 Overall Pick) - He's not bad, but has he played at the level of a #1 overall pick?

Luke Fortner (Top Pick in the Third Round) - He's starting but has a PFF grade this year of 47.2.

Chad Muma (Very Early in Third Round) - He only played 26% of defensive snaps in his rookie season and only 24% this year.  He has a PFF grade this year of 35.7.  

Brenton Strange (Second Round) - He has only played 34% of the offensive snaps.  His PFF grade is 46.5.

Tank Bigsby (Third Round) - He has only played 16% of the offensive snaps.  His PFF grade is 46.2.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not advocating cutting any of this players.  Hopefully, they turn it around and turn into great players.  However, if given a choice right now, yes, I would exchange them for other players available at the spots they were drafted.  I do think there's big question marks on these players.

Cool. 

I don't disagree with any of that. Thanks for hashing it out for me.

I think that most of these issues (and types of picks)  are fairly common amongst GMs across the league but it is fair to be honest about how they are working out so far. 

The Muma 2023 grade is a bit misleading due to such limited play - but the number of linebackers on the roster( or IR) that don't see the field is an element of Baalke's build that I disapprove of. He has a 70th overall pick and a 121st overall pick tied up in guys to back up Lloyd and Oluokun. That's an odd use of solid draft capital. 
  
Aside from that ^ and not effectively addressing the IOL I feel like he's done well for us so far. 

If some of these picks you listed don't develop, my opinion will shift to one less favorable.

It sounds like we are largely on the same page.  

Let me state a couple of aspects of my draft philosophy.  I'm big on what a draft pick does during his first four years (five for first rounders) as that is the time that you have them under their rookie contract.  You want to get productions while they are inexpensive.  Although you might get a slight hometown discount, for the most part, when you resign a draft pick to a second contract, you are paying him free agent market value money.

I'm also big on playing time.  A team wins games when our 11 players on the field are better than their 11 players on the field.  If a player isn't on the field, he isn't contributing towards that goal.  Let me put it another way.  If Player A plays twice as much as Player B, then Player B must have twice the impact during every snap in order to generate the same benefit.  That's a really big ask for Player B and one that isn't going to work out very often.

Even if Muma, Strange and Bigsby improve, they are still unlikely to play more than 50% of the snaps until maybe their fourth year given other players on our roster at their positions.  There were other draft picks available that would have started in year 1 or at least year 2 and would have helped us win more games.

In regard to Fortner, center was a need.  However, the value was questionable.  Most mock drafters at the time saw him as a reach.  We don't know what other GM's thought.  Maybe they liked him too.  However, maybe they thought Baalke was an idiot.  Either way, Baalke takes responsibility for the bad pick if Fortner doesn't improve dramatically.

As for Walker, again, we don't know what other GM's thought, but my suspicion is that most wouldn't have gambled the first overall pick on a project.

This team won't be able to retain its high priced free agents forever.  We're going to need find quality replacements in the draft if we want to continue to be successful long term.  I'm not bashing Baalke, but I'm not exactly full of confidence either.

---

Cool. 

I don't disagree with any of that. Thanks for hashing it out for me.

I think that most of these issues (and types of picks)  are fairly common amongst GMs across the league but it is fair to be honest about how they are working out so far. 

The Muma 2023 grade is a bit misleading due to such limited play - but the number of linebackers on the roster( or IR) that don't see the field is an element of Baalke's build that I disapprove of. He has a 70th overall pick and a 121st overall pick tied up in guys to back up Lloyd and Oluokun. That's an odd use of solid draft capital. 
  
Aside from that ^ and not effectively addressing the IOL I feel like he's done well for us so far. 

If some of these picks you listed don't develop, my opinion will shift to one less favorable.

It sounds like we are largely on the same page.  

Let me state a couple of aspects of my draft philosophy.  I'm big on what a draft pick does during his first four years (five for first rounders) as that is the time that you have them under their rookie contract.  You want to get productions while they are inexpensive.  Although you might get a slight hometown discount, for the most part, when you resign a draft pick to a second contract, you are paying him free agent market value money.

I'm also big on playing time.  A team wins games when our 11 players on the field are better than their 11 players on the field.  If a player isn't on the field, he isn't contributing towards that goal.  Let me put it another way.  If Player A plays twice as much as Player B, then Player B must have twice the impact during every snap in order to generate the same benefit.  That's a really big ask for Player B and one that isn't going to work out very often.

Even if Muma, Strange and Bigsby improve, they are still unlikely to play more than 50% of the snaps until maybe their fourth year given other players on our roster at their positions.  There were other draft picks available that would have started in year 1 or at least year 2 and would have helped us win more games.

In regard to Fortner, center was a need.  However, the value was questionable.  Most mock drafters at the time saw him as a reach.  We don't know what other GM's thought.  Maybe they liked him too.  However, maybe they thought Baalke was an idiot.  Either way, Baalke takes responsibility for the bad pick if Fortner doesn't improve dramatically.

As for Walker, again, we don't know what other GM's thought, but my suspicion is that most wouldn't have gambled the first overall pick on a project.

This team won't be able to retain its high priced free agents forever.  We're going to need find quality replacements in the draft if we want to continue to be successful long term.  I'm not bashing Baalke, but I'm not exactly full of confidence either.

Yessir

We are indeed on the same page. I guess my bar for GMs is just a shade lower than yours but I feel very much the same way about what has happened, how those players are working out, and what needs to happen for sustainability down the road.

---

So why did we trade for one of the leagues better guards if we aren’t going to use him? Interior line got manhandled today

---

So why did we trade for one of the leagues better guards if we aren’t going to use him? Interior line got manhandled today

Gotta watch tape of Little from today to be more certain - but I think they want him to play LG sooner than later. 
I imagine they wanted more than 2 weeks for him to learn the scheme/calls/lingo and with Little already planned to cover LG - they had the luxury of time.

---

This one will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Couldn't rewatch the game but Little stood out a few times for playing very poorly. On the 4th&15 Trevor INT, Little is super slow off his stance and the rusher goes right past him resulting in either Trevor throwing it badly to Fred Warner like he did or he gets sacked right away.

If Cleveland is healthy, you play him at his natural spot. Then you can have the debate on who the starting OTs should be but let's play players at their position if healthywise they are fine and playbook/scheme understanding is at a good enough level.

---