I'm not sure that's true.  Even so, why would a player on the cusp of free agency forfeit that opportunity to test it with less than 2 months to go and no risk of injury?  The overwhelming majority would not.  He's gonna get tagged.  There's no reason for him to sign a deal prior to free agency unless he is compelled to exclusively negotiate by the tag.

If the Jags offer him a deal he likes before the Tag window opens he can sign it. 

There's no unwritten law that he must wait and entertain other offers.  It would mean a blockbuster deal, but that is what is expected in this scenario anyway.

I've heard some NFL beat writers floating this posiibility - or I may not have even thought of it. I can't tell you the likelihood, but it makes sense on paper.

Perhaps no law, but common sense should inform him and professional advisement will reinforce to him that the largest deal comes when there are multiple bids for his services.  If largest deal isn't his priority, perhaps he rolls over and signs ahead of those dates which would be nice and should be relatively unexpected given the scenario. He might piss Ridley off as well.

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The Jags can create enough cap space by cutting Robinson and Scherff to sign Allen to a long-term contract and place the franchise tag on Ridley.

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It's already been reported several times that the franchise tag does NOT trigger the 2nd rounder, even if Ridley signs it.

Josh is getting tagged.  The Jags can no longer exclusively negotiate with either now that the regular season is over with and both are slated to hit free agency as UFA's.  You can only keep one from hitting free agency with the tag and you have to make the decision on whom to tag between February 20th and March 5th.  Free agency technically starts on the 13th at which point free agents can negotiate with any team, though, the legal tampering period begins two days earlier which is now effectively the beginning of free agency.  So, there's no way to tag Ridley and guarantee you re-sign Allen.  One or the other will be hitting free agency and it should be pretty obvious which one that will be.

The July 17th deadline is for when franchise tagged players must have signed their multi-year extension by or they will be playing the year out on the tag.  The deadline creates pressure for the player to sign as most would not want to take on the risk of injury.

This should answer the trade compensation on Ridley as well.  We didn't sign him during the season so it will be a 3rd rounder based on the other qualifiers in the deal and he'll hit free agency.  Maybe we sign him, maybe we don't.  The chance he gets tagged given Allen's pending free agency is miniscule though.

This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

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Josh is getting tagged.  The Jags can no longer exclusively negotiate with either now that the regular season is over with and both are slated to hit free agency as UFA's.  You can only keep one from hitting free agency with the tag and you have to make the decision on whom to tag between February 20th and March 5th.  Free agency technically starts on the 13th at which point free agents can negotiate with any team, though, the legal tampering period begins two days earlier which is now effectively the beginning of free agency.  So, there's no way to tag Ridley and guarantee you re-sign Allen.  One or the other will be hitting free agency and it should be pretty obvious which one that will be.

The July 17th deadline is for when franchise tagged players must have signed their multi-year extension by or they will be playing the year out on the tag.  The deadline creates pressure for the player to sign as most would not want to take on the risk of injury.

This should answer the trade compensation on Ridley as well.  We didn't sign him during the season so it will be a 3rd rounder based on the other qualifiers in the deal and he'll hit free agency.  Maybe we sign him, maybe we don't.  The chance he gets tagged given Allen's pending free agency is miniscule though.

This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

If they do, will they retain the 2nd pick?

I'm of the mindset that if Washington can be productive, using a 1st or a 2nd on a WR that doesn't have to do PR/KR duty can be just a fruitful, and much cheaper than retaining Ridley.    What's he going to cost if he's tagged?  20 million per?    I'd rather most of that money go towards an offensive lineman or a top defensive nose tackle. ( Fletcher Cox)

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Black Jaguar: Yeah, it's a thing.

It was always the Jags!!!!

This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

If they do, will they retain the 2nd pick?

I'm of the mindset that if Washington can be productive, using a 1st or a 2nd on a WR that doesn't have to do PR/KR duty can be just a fruitful, and much cheaper than retaining Ridley.    What's he going to cost if he's tagged?  20 million per?    I'd rather most of that money go towards an offensive lineman or a top defensive nose tackle. ( Fletcher Cox)

17m for the tag which he won't play on, it will just hold him so they can negotiate without the risk of losing him without compensation and they keep the 2.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Keep Ridley for the 3rd.

Draft Brian Thomas JR in round 1.

Go heavy Oline in FA and rounds 2-4 in the draft.

Ridley Kirk BTJ Engram

Little FA FA Rookie Anton

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Keep Ridley for the 3rd.

Draft Brian Thomas JR in round 1.

Go heavy Oline in FA and rounds 2-4 in the draft.

Ridley Kirk BTJ Engram

Little FA FA Rookie Anton

Do we make a try for Tee Higgins?

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DTs DJ Reader or Christian Wilkins make too much sense

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Keep Ridley for the 3rd.

Draft Brian Thomas JR in round 1.

Go heavy Oline in FA and rounds 2-4 in the draft.

Ridley Kirk BTJ Engram

Little FA FA Rookie Anton

Do we make a try for Tee Higgins?

That would be great.

If they do keep Ridley and somehow get Higgins, then round 1 would be an Olineman.

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This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

If they do, will they retain the 2nd pick?

I'm of the mindset that if Washington can be productive, using a 1st or a 2nd on a WR that doesn't have to do PR/KR duty can be just a fruitful, and much cheaper than retaining Ridley.    What's he going to cost if he's tagged?  20 million per?    I'd rather most of that money go towards an offensive lineman or a top defensive nose tackle. ( Fletcher Cox)

Yes, it's been reported numerous times that using the tag does NOT trigger the 2nd round pick clause in the trade.  It essentially keeps the Jags from signing Ridley before the start of the league season.

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Josh is getting tagged.  The Jags can no longer exclusively negotiate with either now that the regular season is over with and both are slated to hit free agency as UFA's.  You can only keep one from hitting free agency with the tag and you have to make the decision on whom to tag between February 20th and March 5th.  Free agency technically starts on the 13th at which point free agents can negotiate with any team, though, the legal tampering period begins two days earlier which is now effectively the beginning of free agency.  So, there's no way to tag Ridley and guarantee you re-sign Allen.  One or the other will be hitting free agency and it should be pretty obvious which one that will be.

The July 17th deadline is for when franchise tagged players must have signed their multi-year extension by or they will be playing the year out on the tag.  The deadline creates pressure for the player to sign as most would not want to take on the risk of injury.

This should answer the trade compensation on Ridley as well.  We didn't sign him during the season so it will be a 3rd rounder based on the other qualifiers in the deal and he'll hit free agency.  Maybe we sign him, maybe we don't.  The chance he gets tagged given Allen's pending free agency is miniscule though.

This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

Yes, the assertion that they couldn't deal with him now was incorrect, but that doesn't really change the likelihood that they get a deal done with him prior so that the tag gets freed up for Ridley.  Allen is weeks away from free agency with no games left to play to potentially get injured in and by extension potentially reduce his value.  He's at the highest value he's ever been with 6-7 weeks until free agency.  There is no business reason for him to sign anything.  Why on Earth would he?  The highest offer comes when multiple bidders are present.  He'll play it as such and it will force them to tag him. To expect otherwise is to expect non-business reasons to be his predominant factors in his decision making.  Yes, it could happen and I’d happily take that outcome for the flexibility it provides the FO, but I don’t see it happening.

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This is incorrect.  Only the Jags can negotiate with Josh Allen until the legal tampering period starts before free agency.  So, the Jags absolutely can sign Josh Allen to a deal while still using the tag on Ridley.

Yes, the assertion that they couldn't deal with him now was incorrect, but that doesn't really change the likelihood that they get a deal done with him prior so that the tag gets freed up for Ridley.  Allen is weeks away from free agency with no games left to play to potentially get injured in and by extension potentially reduce his value.  He's at the highest value he's ever been with 6-7 weeks until free agency.  There is no business reason for him to sign anything.  Why on Earth would he?  The highest offer comes when multiple bidders are present.  He'll play it as such and it will force them to tag him. To expect otherwise is to expect non-business reasons to be his predominant factors in his decision making.  Yes, it could happen and I’d happily take that outcome for the flexibility it provides the FO, but I don’t see it happening.

If you look at past deals, most of the potential free agents end up re-signing with the current team before they ever hit the market.  That's what I would expect to happen with Josh Allen.  The Jags know what his value is on the free market and they will make an offer that is equal to what he would receive in free agency anyway.  It's a win-win situation for both parties.

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So looking at our upcoming coming FA'S. We currently have $12.9m in cap to spend but none of these players are included with that cap figure so would need to be resigned using the $12.9m and/or more cuts/restructure of other contracts.

Our upcoming FA'S are 

Josh Allen 
Agnew
Smoot
Chaisson
Ridley
Herndon
Shatley
McManus
Ezra Cleveland 
D'Ernest Johnson

Then we have those bottom of the roster players

Hence
Shaq Quarterman
Van Lanen
Daniel Thomas
Tim Jones 
Claybrooke
Gregory Junior.

There's some very tough decisions on that list. Josh is a must sign and would be nice not to have to franchise tag him. I'd like to keep Agnew but it would need to be a team friendly deal. Smoot is a tough competitor and a good depth option, I'd like to keep Cleveland but not sure what he'd be after money wise.

Herndon is a tough one. I'm not his biggest fan but could be good to have as a 4th/5th CB on the depth chart but it would need to be a team friendly deal and I think we can find an improvement in the draft. McManus was doing well until his late season collapse.

Ridley is the big question mark. You'd need to cut or restructure a few probably to keep him and I have no idea what kind of money he would expect. I'd be interested to hear the coaches and Trevors opinions from working with him everyday as on gameday he's been very up and down.

So who you keeping and who you showing the door?

See below though to answer the original question:

Josh Allen - Keep
Agnew - Gone
Smoot - Keep
Chaisson - Gone
Ridley - Keep 
Herndon - Keep 
Shatley - Gone
McManus - Keep 
Ezra Cleveland- Keep 
D'Ernest Johnson - Keep 

Hance - Keep 
Shaq Quarterman - Gone
Van Lanen - Gone
Daniel Thomas - Keep 
Tim Jones - Keep 
Claybrooke - Gone 
Gregory Junior - Keep 

Then you can get into the potential cuts like Jenkins and Robinson. Save a good chunk of money by moving on from Jenkins who can probably be replaced by Antonion Johnson and then Robinson is interesting but you would have to think maybe Walker Little saves us money there but the injuries and performances are a question mark. Might have to consider a top tier RT in RD1 with Harrison flipping to LT in year or maybe taking a chance on a rookie LT in RD2. 

Not sure yet. We'll see soon enough I guess in about six to eight weeks.

Essentially my thoughts exactly. Add Scherff in as a potential cut as well

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IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS