Either way, the "2nd round comp" narrative is a bit of a stretch. Even if you assign all picks current year values, you have to assign them mid-round value at best. The middle of round 3 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 187.5 points. The middle of round 4 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 61 points. So, combined that's 248.5 points, plus pick 167 in this draft which is worth another 24.6 points which gets the total to 273.1 points which is the equivalent value of between pick 63 or 64 which are the last two picks in round 2. I'm of the mind that future picks should be devalued a bit for the time value aspect, but even if you don't do that, saying "2nd round comp" is a bit misleading for me because if it were instead an actual future 2nd round pick, that pick number could wind up as high as pick number 33 depending on the Viking's fortunes this upcoming season. With the picks as they are, the highest point total this could climb to if the Vikings wind up with the worst record is the equivalent of pick 52. But if you're accounting for what the point total could rise to using current values, you have to keep in mind it could also conversely wind up at less than 2nd round value if the Vikings make the playoffs next year.

I'm not upset with the comp. If you traded back 6 spots and still got your guy or one of your guys which it feels like we did and also picked up a 3 and 4 next year, I'm happy about that. I just don't need the sunshine and rainbows narrative sold to me about how valuable the comp was when any level of scrutiny applied to it has you walking away disagreeing with that narrative. At the end of the day, it will be what we do with those picks that matters, not the point values. It'll be something else to watch for next draft assuming we don't involve them in another trade for future picks further down the line.

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Either way, the "2nd round comp" narrative is a bit of a stretch.  Even if you assign all picks current year values, you have to assign them mid-round value at best.  The middle of round 3 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 187.5 points.  The middle of round 4 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 61 points.  So, combined that's 248.5 points, plus pick 167 in this draft which is worth another 24.6 points which gets the total to 273.1 points which is the equivalent value of between pick 63 or 64 which are the last two picks in round 2.  I'm of the mind that future picks should be devalued a bit for the time value aspect, but even if you don't do that, saying "2nd round comp" is a bit misleading for me because if it were instead an actual future 2nd round pick, that pick number could wind up as high as pick number 33 depending on the Viking's fortunes this upcoming season.  With the picks as they are, the highest point total this could climb to if the Vikings wind up with the worst record is the equivalent of pick 52.  But if you're accounting for what the point total could rise to using current values, you have to keep in mind it could also conversely wind up at less than 2nd round value if the Vikings make the playoffs next year.

I'm not upset with the comp.  If you traded back 6 spots and still got your guy or one of your guys which it feels like we did and also picked up a 3 and 4 next year, I'm happy about that.  I just don't need the sunshine and rainbows narrative sold to me about how valuable the comp was when any level of scrutiny applied to it has you walking away disagreeing with that narrative.  At the end of the day, it will be what we do with those picks that matters, not the point values.  It'll be something else to watch for next draft assuming we don't involve them in another trade for future picks further down the line.

Trade them for a centre after Morse does his pcl game 7

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Either way, the "2nd round comp" narrative is a bit of a stretch.  Even if you assign all picks current year values, you have to assign them mid-round value at best.  The middle of round 3 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 187.5 points.  The middle of round 4 (without including compensatory picks) is worth 61 points.  So, combined that's 248.5 points, plus pick 167 in this draft which is worth another 24.6 points which gets the total to 273.1 points which is the equivalent value of between pick 63 or 64 which are the last two picks in round 2.  I'm of the mind that future picks should be devalued a bit for the time value aspect, but even if you don't do that, saying "2nd round comp" is a bit misleading for me because if it were instead an actual future 2nd round pick, that pick number could wind up as high as pick number 33 depending on the Viking's fortunes this upcoming season.  With the picks as they are, the highest point total this could climb to if the Vikings wind up with the worst record is the equivalent of pick 52.  But if you're accounting for what the point total could rise to using current values, you have to keep in mind it could also conversely wind up at less than 2nd round value if the Vikings make the playoffs next year.

I'm not upset with the comp.  If you traded back 6 spots and still got your guy or one of your guys which it feels like we did and also picked up a 3 and 4 next year, I'm happy about that.  I just don't need the sunshine and rainbows narrative sold to me about how valuable the comp was when any level of scrutiny applied to it has you walking away disagreeing with that narrative.  At the end of the day, it will be what we do with those picks that matters, not the point values.  It'll be something else to watch for next draft assuming we don't involve them in another trade for future picks further down the line.

Trade them for a centre after Morse does his pcl game 7

Morse has missed 3.5 games over the past 2 years. 

He's fine. Not sure why folks want to make a big deal out of him missing time.

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Trade them for a centre after Morse does his pcl game 7

Morse has missed 3.5 games over the past 2 years. 

He's fine. Not sure why folks want to make a big deal out of him missing time.

It’s the prospect if he does. Drafting a good center would have really rounded out this draft well for not only a sub, but for development of his eventual replacement.

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Morse has missed 3.5 games over the past 2 years. 

He's fine. Not sure why folks want to make a big deal out of him missing time.

It’s the prospect if he does. Drafting a good center would have really rounded out this draft well for not only a sub, but for development of his eventual replacement.

I wanted to see a Center taken too, but I don't see how that has anything to do with so many people acting like Morse is somehow destined to miss time this season.

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On Topic:

Here's an LSU beat writer talking about our 1st round receiver's strengths and weaknesses. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/draft/lsu...hxfe3k5qcd

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A 2nd rounder has a %33 chance of becoming a starter (so it's way less than guaranteed), a 3rd rounder has a %16 chance.  (1st rounder has a %50 chance.)  If you tally a team with their allotted picks (1 pick in each round) they have a %117 of finding a starter throughout the draft, a %58 chance of having 2 starters, etc. These numbers are based off finding a run-of-the-mill starting player.  As expected the numbers change based on your slot in each round, so I would assume these numbers are based on a team in the middle slot (exactly where the Jaguars were.)

My feeling is that the best GMs can increase that number by %10 or so, but I don't have any numbers to back up that opinion.

source?

I smell some skewed stats. Maybe day one starter percentages above?

Here's a link to the numbers I've used (they show up on the google search results for whatever that's worth): 20 year analysis as it had the longest time period and had the most clear data.  I came up with 117% by adding all of the percentages from round 1 - round 7.  This link shows that 44% of first rounders sign a 2nd contract with the teams that have drafted them from (since 2011).  More analysis here.

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source?

I smell some skewed stats. Maybe day one starter percentages above?

Here's a link to the numbers I've used (they show up on the google search results for whatever that's worth): 20 year analysis as it had the longest time period and had the most clear data.  I came up with 117% by adding all of the percentages from round 1 - round 7.  This link shows that 44% of first rounders sign a 2nd contract with the teams that have drafted them from (since 2011).  More analysis here.

Yeah - it is this kind of perspective that fuels the hyperbolic bashing of GMs and their draft choices. 
(well, it's one of the things that fuels it)

Folks by and large don't see that the odds are against even the first-third rounders. 

As I've said at least 8 times since February here:
"The draft is a crapshoot." 

All these FO's are making educated guesses and hoping they get lucky. 
Tons of prospects that look good on paper fail to make it to their third year or even earn a roster spot at all.

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It’s the prospect if he does. Drafting a good center would have really rounded out this draft well for not only a sub, but for development of his eventual replacement.

I wanted to see a Center taken too, but I don't see how that has anything to do with so many people acting like Morse is somehow destined to miss time this season.

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On Topic:

Here's an LSU beat writer talking about our 1st round receiver's strengths and weaknesses. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/draft/lsu...hxfe3k5qcd

Even 1 game with Fortner out there is too much.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I can't see any downside with this pick. The guy is 6-3, ran a 4.33 40 at the Combine, and scored 17 touchdowns last year. Jesus.

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Randy Moss 2.0

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Randy Moss 2.0

He may be. I think he may End up the top pick  out of LSU this year. Trevor likes a tall receiver. He thrived on that in college. Hasn’t had that type of weapon yet.

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Randy Moss 2.0

Hehe, this type of prediction always makes me chuckle (nothing personal.)  There is a whole lot of productivity between the best deep-ball receiver ever and bust.  Just don't want to set the expectations too high.

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can we bubble wrap BTJ,and have hm play in bubble wrap.  season hasn't even started,and we already have to WR hurt with serious injury ,and unknowen return tables,or if they will be the same before injury.  Gabe Davis is hurt,and theres no tametable for his return according to my dad. lets not forget kirk also got a serious injury near end of season last year.   we need to bubble wrap our whole team.

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snowwolf titans owner in madden.

note titans owner means im undeafted againest them. 

can we bubble wrap BTJ,and have hm play in bubble wrap.  season hasn't even started,and we already have to WR hurt with serious injury ,and unknowen return tables,or if they will be the same before injury.  Gabe Davis is hurt,and theres no tametable for his return according to my dad. lets not forget kirk also got a serious injury near end of season last year.   we need to bubble wrap our whole team.

Gabe Davis has a knee sprain that he suffered in week 18 last year; it does not require surgery and they are being careful with it during the offseason meetings. He's not seriously injured and the time table for his return is training camp in July, along with everyone else. Let your dad know that he's fine.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

can we bubble wrap BTJ,and have hm play in bubble wrap.  season hasn't even started,and we already have to WR hurt with serious injury ,and unknowen return tables,or if they will be the same before injury.  Gabe Davis is hurt,and theres no tametable for his return according to my dad. lets not forget kirk also got a serious injury near end of season last year.   we need to bubble wrap our whole team.

My man, he’s a rookie and needs to learn the pro game. Can’t do that in bubble wrap.

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Today's question on the 1010XL radio show was about his rookie season stat predictions. I went with 70 receptions for 1,025 yards and 11 TD's. I think he'll be utilized a lot inside the redzone personally. His size and footwork are great in my opinion for a guy coming out of college. Expect a lot of 50/50 contests coming his way and going his way with Lawrence slinging it.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Today's question on the 1010XL radio show was about his rookie season stat predictions. I went with 70 receptions for 1,025 yards and 11 TD's. I think he'll be utilized a lot inside the redzone personally. His size and footwork are great in my opinion for a guy coming out of college. Expect a lot of 50/50 contests coming his way and going his way with Lawrence slinging it.

I'll go with 60 catches for 800 yards and 9 TDs.  It will take time to adjust to the pro game, and other teams will figure him out a little since he's a rookie.  But I think the 9 TDs will be because of his speed.

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Today's question on the 1010XL radio show was about his rookie season stat predictions. I went with 70 receptions for 1,025 yards and 11 TD's. I think he'll be utilized a lot inside the redzone personally. His size and footwork are great in my opinion for a guy coming out of college. Expect a lot of 50/50 contests coming his way and going his way with Lawrence slinging it.

Woo buddy. If he hits these numbers in year 1?! That would be nuts.

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Today's question on the 1010XL radio show was about his rookie season stat predictions. I went with 70 receptions for 1,025 yards and 11 TD's. I think he'll be utilized a lot inside the redzone personally. His size and footwork are great in my opinion for a guy coming out of college. Expect a lot of 50/50 contests coming his way and going his way with Lawrence slinging it.

Woo buddy. If he hits these numbers in year 1?! That would be nuts.

I have high expectations for him right off the bat. Especially inside the redzone. It averages out to 4 - 5 catches per game and 60 yards per game over a 17 game season. I am factoring in some high's and low's with him as a rookie. 

He'll probably be the type that goes 2 - 29, 3 - 43, 1 - 35 and 1 TD and then explodes and gets red hot in one game for 8 - 130 and 2 TD's. Which is perfectly fine, normal and par for the course for most rookie WR's that have high expectations. 

Genuinely excited about this kid though. Been on this bandwagon since November or December of last year. Should be one of the more athletically gifted receivers since we had Justin Blackmon and Matt Jones here. With him having better character than those two and more of a natural at it than Jones. 

Just watch his highlight reels. I cannot get over how good his footwork is coming out of LSU.

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Today's question on the 1010XL radio show was about his rookie season stat predictions. I went with 70 receptions for 1,025 yards and 11 TD's. I think he'll be utilized a lot inside the redzone personally. His size and footwork are great in my opinion for a guy coming out of college. Expect a lot of 50/50 contests coming his way and going his way with Lawrence slinging it.

I'll go with 60 catches for 800 yards and 9 TDs.  It will take time to adjust to the pro game, and other teams will figure him out a little since he's a rookie.  But I think the 9 TDs will be because of his speed.

I think his speed will be a factor for sure with the TD's earlier on, but, as teams catch on they'll start covering the deep portion of the field on his side which should open up the underneath game for Kirk and Co. 

I think where he's going to shine early though, is, along the boundary, working the sideline tight and using his feet and size to box defenders out of his catching radius. He really has a good understanding of his footwork and his ability to actually track the football is underrated to his game.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Woo buddy. If he hits these numbers in year 1?! That would be nuts.

I have high expectations for him right off the bat. Especially inside the redzone. It averages out to 4 - 5 catches per game and 60 yards per game over a 17 game season. I am factoring in some high's and low's with him as a rookie. 

He'll probably be the type that goes 2 - 29, 3 - 43, 1 - 35 and 1 TD and then explodes and gets red hot in one game for 8 - 130 and 2 TD's. Which is perfectly fine, normal and par for the course for most rookie WR's that have high expectations. 

Genuinely excited about this kid though. Been on this bandwagon since November or December of last year. Should be one of the more athletically gifted receivers since we had Justin Blackmon and Matt Jones here. With him having better character than those two and more of a natural at it than Jones. 

Just watch his highlight reels. I cannot get over how good his footwork is coming out of LSU.

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I'll go with 60 catches for 800 yards and 9 TDs.  It will take time to adjust to the pro game, and other teams will figure him out a little since he's a rookie.  But I think the 9 TDs will be because of his speed.

I think his speed will be a factor for sure with the TD's earlier on, but, as teams catch on they'll start covering the deep portion of the field on his side which should open up the underneath game for Kirk and Co. 

I think where he's going to shine early though, is, along the boundary, working the sideline tight and using his feet and size to box defenders out of his catching radius. He really has a good understanding of his footwork and his ability to actually track the football is underrated to his game.

I always think that red-zone WRs have to have not only height, but strength and a large catch radius to out duel opposing coverage.  How do your rate his ability there?

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