01-15-2017, 01:21 AM
I think right now, basically, our 4th overall pick will come down to the two safeties and two running backs. You can come to this conclusion based off of a few details concerning this draft
1. Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen will both be gone in the top 3 picks.
Allen and Garrett will more than likely be seen as the two superstar prospects in this draft and both will be drafted in the top 2-3 picks, given the state of the quarterback situation in this draft. Which leads me to my next point...
2. While multiple QBs won't go in the top 3, at least one will.
While I don't think multiple QBs are likely to go in the first 3 picks in this draft, I do think a team in the top 3 will talk themselves into drafting one. While none of the top QB prospects are sure things, I can see a team being able to convince themselves to draft one of Trubisky, Kizer, or Watson top 3. I think the QB situation may end up being similar to 2014, where we took Bortles at 3 when no one was expecting it. All 3 of the teams picking in the top 3 need QBs and it's just too thirsty of a QB league for at least one to not take one of them.
So, moving with the assumption that Garrett and Allen will likely be gone but no other players outside of a QB, we have to narrow down the top needs for this team. I think those are clearly pass rush, OL, RB, and S. Now, by process of elimination we can rule out some of these:
OL: No prospect is worth a top 4 pick in this draft
EDGE: Unfortunately, it doesn't seem Barnett will grade out as a top 5 player and the only other edge rusher in this class who could is Tim Williams, and he may have some drug problems. So, assuming Barnett and Williams are both late first-early second round picks, that rules out a pass rusher worth taking in the top 4 (in comparison to talent at other positions)
Now that those two positions are ruled out, we are left at RB and S. The main prospects for these two positions are Fournette, Cook, Adams, and Hooker. Now, the strongest indicator against us drafting a safety top 4 is the past draft history. Looking at NFL draft history overall, no DB has been selected in the top 4 in nearly 20 year. Meanwhile, we have precedent for RBs being selected top 4 this decade with Trent Richardson in 2012 and Ezekiel Elliott just last year. Now, looking at Coughlin's drafting history, he's only taken a DB in the first round of the draft 4 times, and none of those times were in the top 10. Furthermore, all of those DBs were CBs. So Coughlin has essentially never drafted a safety in the first round. And of course we already know first hand Coughlin spent a top 10 pick on a running back before. Given this track record, it doesn't seem likely a safety is to be drafted by us with a top 4 pick. The only thing that could compromise this line of thinking is the fact we will have a gaping hole at safety once Cyp walks, but given the value of the position, they may wait to draft one in the second round if we don't sign a starter in FA.
So, that leaves us at running back. The reason I believe it will be Fournette over Cook is because Tom has shown he like bigger backs, and at 6'1'' 230lbs Fournette is clearly the bigger back to Cook's reported 5'10'' 210-215lbs frame. Furthermore, Matt Miller reported hearing concerns about Cook's shoulder surgeries, which were a concern of my own, and fumbles. These factors could have Cook dropping. Furthermore, Fournette is still seen as a special prospect at his position and will likely grade out ahead of Cook for most FOs, including our's.
Therefore, by process of elimination, Fournette is the most likely pick for us as things stand. I think we will try fortify the OL in FA and sign JPP to boost pass edge pass rush and will either sign a starting safety or draft one in the second round.
1. Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen will both be gone in the top 3 picks.
Allen and Garrett will more than likely be seen as the two superstar prospects in this draft and both will be drafted in the top 2-3 picks, given the state of the quarterback situation in this draft. Which leads me to my next point...
2. While multiple QBs won't go in the top 3, at least one will.
While I don't think multiple QBs are likely to go in the first 3 picks in this draft, I do think a team in the top 3 will talk themselves into drafting one. While none of the top QB prospects are sure things, I can see a team being able to convince themselves to draft one of Trubisky, Kizer, or Watson top 3. I think the QB situation may end up being similar to 2014, where we took Bortles at 3 when no one was expecting it. All 3 of the teams picking in the top 3 need QBs and it's just too thirsty of a QB league for at least one to not take one of them.
So, moving with the assumption that Garrett and Allen will likely be gone but no other players outside of a QB, we have to narrow down the top needs for this team. I think those are clearly pass rush, OL, RB, and S. Now, by process of elimination we can rule out some of these:
OL: No prospect is worth a top 4 pick in this draft
EDGE: Unfortunately, it doesn't seem Barnett will grade out as a top 5 player and the only other edge rusher in this class who could is Tim Williams, and he may have some drug problems. So, assuming Barnett and Williams are both late first-early second round picks, that rules out a pass rusher worth taking in the top 4 (in comparison to talent at other positions)
Now that those two positions are ruled out, we are left at RB and S. The main prospects for these two positions are Fournette, Cook, Adams, and Hooker. Now, the strongest indicator against us drafting a safety top 4 is the past draft history. Looking at NFL draft history overall, no DB has been selected in the top 4 in nearly 20 year. Meanwhile, we have precedent for RBs being selected top 4 this decade with Trent Richardson in 2012 and Ezekiel Elliott just last year. Now, looking at Coughlin's drafting history, he's only taken a DB in the first round of the draft 4 times, and none of those times were in the top 10. Furthermore, all of those DBs were CBs. So Coughlin has essentially never drafted a safety in the first round. And of course we already know first hand Coughlin spent a top 10 pick on a running back before. Given this track record, it doesn't seem likely a safety is to be drafted by us with a top 4 pick. The only thing that could compromise this line of thinking is the fact we will have a gaping hole at safety once Cyp walks, but given the value of the position, they may wait to draft one in the second round if we don't sign a starter in FA.
So, that leaves us at running back. The reason I believe it will be Fournette over Cook is because Tom has shown he like bigger backs, and at 6'1'' 230lbs Fournette is clearly the bigger back to Cook's reported 5'10'' 210-215lbs frame. Furthermore, Matt Miller reported hearing concerns about Cook's shoulder surgeries, which were a concern of my own, and fumbles. These factors could have Cook dropping. Furthermore, Fournette is still seen as a special prospect at his position and will likely grade out ahead of Cook for most FOs, including our's.
Therefore, by process of elimination, Fournette is the most likely pick for us as things stand. I think we will try fortify the OL in FA and sign JPP to boost pass edge pass rush and will either sign a starting safety or draft one in the second round.