Quote:But if we can draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd and have him pull a Russel Wilson or a Kaepernick then I'd be overly ecstatic, especially because that meant we likely took a top tier defensive player.
If you think a guy can be Wilson or Kaep they don't last until day 2. They are extreme outliers, and gambling on outliers is a fools errand that leads to job loss. Even those two teams gave big money to Alex Smith and Matt Flynn to be their starters, then forcefully had their minds changed afterwards.
Drafting QBs outside of the first round and expecting them to come in and start (much less be good) soon is literally a one in a hundred. If it happens great you have the makings of a perennial contender, but you can't go in with those expectations.
Quote:If you draft a guy at #3 he better start day 1. If he needs to sit behind a vet he aint worth the 3rd first round
pick.
There. I fixed it for you.
Kaepernick and Wilson do not happen every year simply because for every two of them, there were at least 15-20 other late round QBs who just didn't have what it took to be a long term starter. It's not wise for GMs and coaches to bet their jobs on getting those type of value pick at later rounds.
Most QBs after the first round don't have a real chance, don't go to a good team or a system that fits.
I definitely feel there are QBs worth taking at the 3rd pick. I think Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles could all be worthy (although my personal preference is Manziel or Bridgewater).
However, I only feel they are worth it if Clowney and Watkins aren't available. To me those 2 guys are by far the best players in the draft, and honestly the only real "top 5" worthy talents.
Eh, Watkins is a luxury pick, and isn't WR pretty deep?
I think at 3 it has to be Clowney, Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles. MAYBE Watkins if Clowney and Bridgewater are both off the board. It'd be great to have another weapon, but right now our weapon user is Ghandi.
Quote:Eh, Watkins is a luxury pick, and isn't WR pretty deep?
Yes, this is shaping up to be one of the very best and deepest WR classes ever. I like Watkins as much as everyone else, but getting a franchise QB prospect or Clowney/Mack at positions that will dry up much faster would be wiser.
I am still waiting till after next month to have my assessments set in stone. I want to see combine and what happens in FA.
I mean what happens if we sign Orakpo and/or sign/trade for a QB already in the NFL i.e. (Vick or Cousins).....that could reveal a lot about where we go with first pick.
Right now I think it goes like this in top three:
Texans - QB
Rams - Watkins
Jags - Clowney
Quote:I am still waiting till after next month to have my assessments set in stone. I want to see combine and what happens in FA.
I mean what happens if we sign Orakpo and/or sign/trade for a QB already in the NFL i.e. (Vick or Cousins).....that could reveal a lot about where we go with first pick.
Right now I think it goes like this in top three:
Texans - QB
Rams - Watkins
Jags - Clowney
I really hope we don't trade for Vick or Cousins. Vick is past his prime, and injury-prone. Cousins just isn't that good, and giving up more than a 5th for him would be a mistake.
Quote:I really hope we don't trade for Vick or Cousins. Vick is past his prime, and injury-prone. Cousins just isn't that good, and giving up more than a 5th for him would be a mistake.
I hope not either as Vick is a FA.....As far as Cousins goes, I have no idea how our FO feels about him, but its not out of the realm of possibility they might be looking for someone who is already in the NFL.
Just thought I'd put this here. FWIW
At this early date a look at the 18 most visible mocking draftniks shows:
6 of them mocking us Bridgewater
4 of them mocking us Clowney
3 of them mocking us Bortles
3 mocking Barr
2 mocking Manziel
Quote:Kaepernick and Wilson do not happen every year simply because for every two of them, there were at least 15-20 other late round QBs who just didn't have what it took to be a long term starter. It's not wise for GMs and coaches to bet their jobs on getting those type of value pick at later rounds.
Even more common are the first round flops, because teams drafted a guy who wasn't worth the first round pick they were so desperate to spend for them.
We should know. x2... I don't know about you but I'd rather not make this a trifecta by making yet another bad choice.
I am not saying QB isn't important and I will trust the judgement of the FO, but I just don't see any of these QBs as legit top 5 and probably not even top 10 talents.
Bridgewater is starting to remind me of Chad Pennington when he came out. Manziel too much of a wild card although I think he is the most talented of the group from a potential standpoint, but I don't know if he will ever reach that potential as a starter. And I have never been a fan of Bortles in the first round.
I guess the problem for me (at least IMHO), is that we don't have the talent to surround these QBs with to make them successful 1st rounders. I think people forget how talented the teams Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, Ben Rothlisberger, etc were on when they got drafted and how many years it took for them to become the passers they are known as today. Honestly Russell Wilson really didn't put on a passing display the 2nd half of the season. He got drafted exactly where he should have gotten drafted.
Quote:Even more common are the first round flops, because teams drafted a guy who wasn't worth the first round pick they were so desperate to spend for them.
We should know. x2... I don't know about you but I'd rather not make this a trifecta by making yet another bad choice.
But what about the proven fact that the bust rate for top 10 DE is higher than top 10 QB?
Quote:I think people forget how talented the teams Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, Ben Rothlisberger, etc were on when they got drafted and how many years it took for them to become the passers they are known as today.
I think Garrapolo's ceiling is somewhere between these two guys. I could see him playing on that level by late in his second season. Might be a steal in the third or late second for a team that has other pieces in place.
Quote:But what about the proven fact that the bust rate for top 10 DE is higher than top 10 QB?
You got that backwards. Bust rates for QBs are higher than for linemen.
Quote:Besides maybe Teddy is there anyone else who plays like a QB worth the 3rd overall pick?
Personally I still prefer Bortles first, then Teddy...come away with either one and I would be happy as a pig in slop.
Quote:I really hope we don't trade for Vick or Cousins. Vick is past his prime, and injury-prone. Cousins just isn't that good, and giving up more than a 5th for him would be a mistake.
Giving up anything for Cousins at this point is a mistake. Vick will be cut cause of his contract. At just the cost to sign him he would be worth it, if things didn't go our way, or we just wanted someone good enough for our guy to sit behind for a season or 2.
Quote:You got that backwards. Bust rates for QBs are higher than for linemen.
Nope, it's a 48% bust rate for top 10 QBs, and a 53% bust rate for top 10 DE. There was some kind of cut off I'm sure but it went back like 30 years. I think it was since the combine started in 1982.
Quote:I don't think teddy is worth the third pick, strictly because the amount of QB's that are in this draft and the fact that the talent level between the first 3 qbs (teddy bortles manzeil) is supposedly close, but after that all the qbs after them are pretty even and they aren't too far off from being on the level of Manzeil and Bortles. If it were those three QBs then nothing but 5th or 6th round talent after them then i'd say yeah, it'd probably be worth to take a qb at 3. But if we can draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd and have him pull a Russel Wilson or a Kaepernick then I'd be overly ecstatic, especially because that meant we likely took a top tier defensive player.
That would be great if that happened. Get a Barr or Clowney at 3, and pickup someone who may turn out to be Russell Wilson or Kaepernick, I'd be ecstatic. The issue with that thought process though is the fact that the odds aren't in favor of the later picks turning out to be franchise quarterbacks. Now it's possible the Jags or any other team for that matter do not think any QB in the draft is worth the 3rd pick, but if they do, and this is just my opinion, I say go with the QB.