We've discussed at length that eventually (probably 2019), we're gonna have to start cutting key players on defense in order to stay under the cap. I got to looking on Spot Trac and after doing some figuring, the future may not be as gloomy as I once thought. According to their site, with an adjusted cap we'd be approximately $4-5 million over. With that said, we already invested in replacements for Malik Jackson, Barry Church and Jeremy Parnell in the last draft with the selections of Taven Bryan, Ronnie Harrison and Will Richardson. This season, most of those players are getting some spot playing time, to groom them for possibly starting next year, so they won't come in totally inexperienced. Looking at the savings for those veterans, we'd save $6 million by cutting or trading Parnell, $6.250 million by cutting or trading Church and although he would count $4 million in dead money, we'd save $15 million by cutting or trading Malik Jackson, which would give us a total savings of $11 million on his contract. Add these three contracts together and we have a savings of $19.250 million. Deduct the $5 million that we'd be over the cap and we'd still have over $14 million, with which we could extend the contracts of our young stars. In addition to this, those guys we would lose still have years left on their deals and they are very highly regarded players in the league. They have real trade value. We could trade them to move up in the draft, much like Buffalo did by trading Cordy Glenn to the Bengals last year or just trade them for picks. I also expect us to get a compensatory pick in the 3-4 round range for Dante Fowler as well. The subtractions of Parnell, Church and Jackson would also allow us to keep a key player like Marcell Dareus for another season, until we were able to draft his replacement. I'd expect us to draft a NT very early in 2019 and have him starting by 2020. I also believe we will replace Fowler somewhere in the 1-3 round range, as well as adding a RG. Cann is on the final year of his contract and will demand a higher salary, so selecting an OG is a must. The key is good drafting. If we draft wisely, we can keep fielding an elite team for quite a while. I feel much better and can fully focus on this season. If I am wrong or didn't do the math correctly, break it to me gently. This put me in a very good mood.
Draft and develop
Jars on the shelf
Maybe he had a point...
I think Dave has gone a good job planning for the future, but just because we've drafted some replacements doesn't mean we know if they're good or not. We also still have a bunch more to fill. FS, DE, DT, RG, TE at least...and that's if Bryan, Harrison, and Richardson are all hits.
The bigger worry for me is that we're just now seeing how darn expensive it's going to be to keep Yannick, Ramsey, and Jack. It's going to take ~50M+ to keep all 3 of them IMO. And that may be conservative it could push 60M.
(09-14-2018, 06:09 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I think Dave has gone a good job planning for the future, but just because we've drafted some replacements doesn't mean we know if they're good or not. We also still have a bunch more to fill. FS, DE, DT, RG, TE at least...and that's if Bryan, Harrison, and Richardson are all hits.
The bigger worry for me is that we're just now seeing how darn expensive it's going to be to keep Yannick, Ramsey, and Jack. It's going to take ~50M+ to keep all 3 of them IMO. And that may be conservative it could push 60M.
Agreed. So far, Bryan and Harrison have flashed, so I feel pretty optimistic about them. I would like to see Richard a bit more, before I make an educated opinion on him. Yes, we have a lot more holes to fill, but if we are able to find replacements for 2-3 big contract players in each draft, that would go a long way. Salaries are getting way out of hand, no matter how you look at it. Those 3 guys in particular (Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack) are players we cannot lose though. They are young and have many years of good football ahead of them. Contracts didn't used to bother me, because you could always back load them. Now, players want guaranteed money. We might have to get really creative to keep these guys.
(09-14-2018, 06:09 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I think Dave has gone a good job planning for the future, but just because we've drafted some replacements doesn't mean we know if they're good or not. We also still have a bunch more to fill. FS, DE, DT, RG, TE at least...and that's if Bryan, Harrison, and Richardson are all hits.
The bigger worry for me is that we're just now seeing how darn expensive it's going to be to keep Yannick, Ramsey, and Jack. It's going to take ~50M+ to keep all 3 of them IMO. And that may be conservative it could push 60M.
The good news is that we have don't have to fill them all in one draft AND we can HOPEFULLY get lucky and knock out at least one of those positions with either a late round/undrafted player or a cheap free agent pickup that turns into a stud.
This is why Bortles contract gave them flexibility. I sure hope he can keep improving and getting better. I sure hope the coaching staff gets more aggressive as play improves.
I understand draft and develop, but I swear people are so ready to just get rid of probowl talent as if us drafting that same position is automatically going to yield the same results..
you realize we can draft busts right? we have done so plenty of times, and even "hits" dont guarantee that high of production.
If this team can keep these expensive guys while also being able to keep our young studs, they need to do it. The only one I am comfortable letting go as early as next year is Parnell... Church in the first game played tremendously, and if he plays all year like that, I am not moving on from him.'
I am not moving on from jackson or campbell either if both have good years. I am also finding a way to keep dareus. We dont have to extend ramsey, yannick, or myles until after next year, so there is no reason we cant keep our stud lineman next year
also I have seen nothing from Bryan that tells me he is ready to take over for either of our pro bowl/all pro Dlineman
(09-14-2018, 04:39 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]We've discussed at length that eventually (probably 2019), we're gonna have to start cutting key players on defense in order to stay under the cap. I got to looking on Spot Trac and after doing some figuring, the future may not be as gloomy as I once thought. According to their site, with an adjusted cap we'd be approximately $4-5 million over. With that said, we already invested in replacements for Malik Jackson, Barry Church and Jeremy Parnell in the last draft with the selections of Taven Bryan, Ronnie Harrison and Will Richardson. This season, most of those players are getting some spot playing time, to groom them for possibly starting next year, so they won't come in totally inexperienced. Looking at the savings for those veterans, we'd save $6 million by cutting or trading Parnell, $6.250 million by cutting or trading Church and although he would count $4 million in dead money, we'd save $15 million by cutting or trading Malik Jackson, which would give us a total savings of $11 million on his contract. Add these three contracts together and we have a savings of $19.250 million. Deduct the $5 million that we'd be over the cap and we'd still have over $14 million, with which we could extend the contracts of our young stars. In addition to this, those guys we would lose still have years left on their deals and they are very highly regarded players in the league. They have real trade value. We could trade them to move up in the draft, much like Buffalo did by trading Cordy Glenn to the Bengals last year or just trade them for picks. I also expect us to get a compensatory pick in the 3-4 round range for Dante Fowler as well. The subtractions of Parnell, Church and Jackson would also allow us to keep a key player like Marcell Dareus for another season, until we were able to draft his replacement. I'd expect us to draft a NT very early in 2019 and have him starting by 2020. I also believe we will replace Fowler somewhere in the 1-3 round range, as well as adding a RG. Cann is on the final year of his contract and will demand a higher salary, so selecting an OG is a must. The key is good drafting. If we draft wisely, we can keep fielding an elite team for quite a while. I feel much better and can fully focus on this season. If I am wrong or didn't do the math correctly, break it to me gently. This put me in a very good mood.
Just trade Ramsey for two firsts or a first, a two, and a five. Parlay that into picking a QB high and drafting hopefully an above average corner. Yannick is more valuable/rare and Ramsey has the most trade value.
The future so bright, I gotta wear shades, I gotta wear shades...
(09-14-2018, 09:45 AM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ] (09-14-2018, 04:39 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]We've discussed at length that eventually (probably 2019), we're gonna have to start cutting key players on defense in order to stay under the cap. I got to looking on Spot Trac and after doing some figuring, the future may not be as gloomy as I once thought. According to their site, with an adjusted cap we'd be approximately $4-5 million over. With that said, we already invested in replacements for Malik Jackson, Barry Church and Jeremy Parnell in the last draft with the selections of Taven Bryan, Ronnie Harrison and Will Richardson. This season, most of those players are getting some spot playing time, to groom them for possibly starting next year, so they won't come in totally inexperienced. Looking at the savings for those veterans, we'd save $6 million by cutting or trading Parnell, $6.250 million by cutting or trading Church and although he would count $4 million in dead money, we'd save $15 million by cutting or trading Malik Jackson, which would give us a total savings of $11 million on his contract. Add these three contracts together and we have a savings of $19.250 million. Deduct the $5 million that we'd be over the cap and we'd still have over $14 million, with which we could extend the contracts of our young stars. In addition to this, those guys we would lose still have years left on their deals and they are very highly regarded players in the league. They have real trade value. We could trade them to move up in the draft, much like Buffalo did by trading Cordy Glenn to the Bengals last year or just trade them for picks. I also expect us to get a compensatory pick in the 3-4 round range for Dante Fowler as well. The subtractions of Parnell, Church and Jackson would also allow us to keep a key player like Marcell Dareus for another season, until we were able to draft his replacement. I'd expect us to draft a NT very early in 2019 and have him starting by 2020. I also believe we will replace Fowler somewhere in the 1-3 round range, as well as adding a RG. Cann is on the final year of his contract and will demand a higher salary, so selecting an OG is a must. The key is good drafting. If we draft wisely, we can keep fielding an elite team for quite a while. I feel much better and can fully focus on this season. If I am wrong or didn't do the math correctly, break it to me gently. This put me in a very good mood.
Just trade Ramsey for two firsts or a first, a two, and a five. Parlay that into picking a QB high and drafting hopefully an above average corner. Yannick is more valuable/rare and Ramsey has the most trade value.
Well that's dumb.
Do you want people to laugh at the Jags like they're laughing at the Raiders for trading Mack? You don't trade an elite player, at an elite position BEFORE they even get into their prime.
Spotrac is showing those numbers with 39 players
Will need another 10-15 million to fill out the roster
Restructuring contracts will be necessary.
Its going to be a rough offseason.
Looking at the numbers and roster, 2018 looks like an all in year. 2019 is very concerning.
This is solely based off spotrac. Havent even looked at the other sources
Perfect example of why landing an elite franchise QB is essential in today’s NFL. Having to spend big dollars on multiple positions on defense will eventually hamstring your salary cap and once they start leaving or getting past their prime your fortunes change rapidly. Having a franchise QB is really the only way of assuring that you can field a competitive team year after year.
I dont see us cutting Parnell unless he just fall off. The last couple years he has been our best lineman at times and he isnt that expensive. Played really good the past Sun too.
(09-14-2018, 09:27 AM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: [ -> ]I understand draft and develop, but I swear people are so ready to just get rid of probowl talent as if us drafting that same position is automatically going to yield the same results..
you realize we can draft busts right? we have done so plenty of times, and even "hits" dont guarantee that high of production.
If this team can keep these expensive guys while also being able to keep our young studs, they need to do it. The only one I am comfortable letting go as early as next year is Parnell... Church in the first game played tremendously, and if he plays all year like that, I am not moving on from him.'
I am not moving on from jackson or campbell either if both have good years. I am also finding a way to keep dareus. We dont have to extend ramsey, yannick, or myles until after next year, so there is no reason we cant keep our stud lineman next year
also I have seen nothing from Bryan that tells me he is ready to take over for either of our pro bowl/all pro Dlineman
I think
EVERYONE wants that, but it's just not realistic. You can't just magically give guys as much money as they ask for. You have to fit it in the structure of the salary cap. I certainly don't wanna lose Church, Jackson or Parnell, but some contracts are gonna have to go and at least we tried drafting for guys to replace those players. Also, if you don't extend your young stars, you end up one of two ways. The first being Khalil Mack situation in Oakland where they chose to trade him or you choose the LeVeon Bell situation in Pittsburgh, where he might sit out until the 11th game. This is just how the NFL works now.
(09-14-2018, 11:07 AM)Eye of the Storm Wrote: [ -> ]Perfect example of why landing an elite franchise QB is essential in today’s NFL. Having to spend big dollars on multiple positions on defense will eventually hamstring your salary cap and once they start leaving or getting past their prime your fortunes change rapidly. Having a franchise QB is really the only way of assuring that you can field a competitive team year after year.
Yeah cuz overpaying an "elite" QB like Stafford, Ryan, Luck, or Carr doesn't hurt a team at all.
There are only 3 elite QBs. Brees, Rodgers,and Brady
(09-14-2018, 12:30 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]There are only 3 elite QBs. Brees, Rodgers,and Brady
And Brady rarely has handicapped his team with his salary.
Brees has actually done well while not capping the team too horribly (however has never had much of a defense, save for Bountygate)
Rodgers did his team no favors, imo, with his most recent contract. (Also has no OL or D his whole career, minus 1 year)
And you're right... there isn't any real elite play beyond that. (You could argue Russ to a certain degree with the crap around him) And from watching Stafford the other night, the gap from "top tier" to "middle of the road" QBs isn't that big, save for the salary.
Pay for defenders and hope you can get by with a QB.
Or Pay a QB and hope he is actually elite enough to lift you past your terrible defense, or terrible OL, etc etc.
Personally, I choose having multiple elite defenders and a few stars on O rather than one "elite" QB and whatever else you can get every where else.
That being said... if anyone knows where to get the next Brady (the actual next Brady not some backup the Pats make look good for 2 games) we should definitely sign him.
(09-14-2018, 12:23 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ] (09-14-2018, 11:07 AM)Eye of the Storm Wrote: [ -> ]Perfect example of why landing an elite franchise QB is essential in today’s NFL. Having to spend big dollars on multiple positions on defense will eventually hamstring your salary cap and once they start leaving or getting past their prime your fortunes change rapidly. Having a franchise QB is really the only way of assuring that you can field a competitive team year after year.
Yeah cuz overpaying an "elite" QB like Stafford, Ryan, Luck, or Carr doesn't hurt a team at all.
What do Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben, and Tom Brady all have in common? They have all won Superbowls and they are also the only constant to their respective teams. I never said Stafford, Ryan, Luck, or Carr are elite, so I don’t know where you’re getting that from. You can literally replace the whole roster around them and still be in a position to win a championship. Name one single player on our defense that will be able to carry this team to a title.
(09-14-2018, 12:06 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ] (09-14-2018, 09:27 AM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: [ -> ]I understand draft and develop, but I swear people are so ready to just get rid of probowl talent as if us drafting that same position is automatically going to yield the same results..
you realize we can draft busts right? we have done so plenty of times, and even "hits" dont guarantee that high of production.
If this team can keep these expensive guys while also being able to keep our young studs, they need to do it. The only one I am comfortable letting go as early as next year is Parnell... Church in the first game played tremendously, and if he plays all year like that, I am not moving on from him.'
I am not moving on from jackson or campbell either if both have good years. I am also finding a way to keep dareus. We dont have to extend ramsey, yannick, or myles until after next year, so there is no reason we cant keep our stud lineman next year
also I have seen nothing from Bryan that tells me he is ready to take over for either of our pro bowl/all pro Dlineman
I think EVERYONE wants that, but it's just not realistic. You can't just magically give guys as much money as they ask for. You have to fit it in the structure of the salary cap. I certainly don't wanna lose Church, Jackson or Parnell, but some contracts are gonna have to go and at least we tried drafting for guys to replace those players. Also, if you don't extend your young stars, you end up one of two ways. The first being Khalil Mack situation in Oakland where they chose to trade him or you choose the LeVeon Bell situation in Pittsburgh, where he might sit out until the 11th game. This is just how the NFL works now.
I understand how the cap works, there are ways to extend those guys and keep our dlineman... 1 way as I already said is to keep our Dlineman next year and extend our 3 young studs AFTER next year, because they are still under contract next year on the cheap, so that is not an issue
also, there are plenty of guys I would cut or let walk way before those guys. Lee can go, we should have never given him that contract, the way our offense works, WR can be a draft and replace position, even RB.. Leonard isnt due for a while, and honestly unless he starts staying healthy, I wont be surprised if we are drafting for a RB in 2 years.
and even at QB, I dont have an issue finding a replacement for bortles AFTER next year as that will also save money.
Now, if some of our Dlineman are dropping off a cliff this year or next year, then obviously move on, but there are so many other positions that are not producing at elite levels that money can be saved from
Malik Jackson ain't going anywhere.