Eh... don't worry about it.  Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight.  I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default).  Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.

As far as today?  I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future.  Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW.  Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.

So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price.  I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week.  When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position.  It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43).  The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing.  They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing.  The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually.  If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.

It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom".  It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.

Not worried JIB. We may disagree often, but I know you don't take things personally and in my eyes you've always been extremely fair in adjudicating the board.

And true to form, I think we probably will see it dip down again. I don't really see how it can't, except it's not. So I'm completely confused and on the sidelines lol. 

Your MSFT is looking real nice though.

No worries.  Today was the last day of Q1 so many money managers are re-balancing.  What I would like to see is a "moderate" stock market the rest of the week meaning swings up or down being less than say 200 points on the DOW.

My prediction, and as always take it for what it's worth (my opinion), is that the market will hold in this range for this month.  I don't see a major move either up or down.  Once we do start to see an upward trend don't expect it to go up as quickly and dramatically as it came down.

What I am doing right now is taking "baby steps" back into the market by taking small positions in what I think will pay off in the long run.  In other words, I liked Micro$oft at a certain price and think the price will be worth quite a bit more a year or two from now.  I'm not really concerned about the day-to-day price.   Certain sectors will also do well over time.  The entire stock market is basically "on sale" right now as long as you do diligent research and make wise decisions.

My overall prediction (for what it's worth) is that we might see a bit of an increase until Q1 numbers come out.  I kind of think that markets right now have that "priced in", but the numbers are going to be ugly.  Basically over the month of April I think markets will be flat.  Again, this is just a feeling that I have.  I don't really see the market falling back to the low of around 18000 on the DOW.  Falling back to my target of 20000?  Perhaps, but I don't think it will happen.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board. 

C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.

Ehhhhhh....  hey look.  JIBs  cool with it so hey, but from my point of view theres a difference between going hard at someone whose going hard at you and vs. randomly going back and pulling up post history when someone's holding up their hands saying "hey just my opinion could be wrong". 

The challenge with this medium of communication is that in reality the words we use are only about 7% of the way humans communicate.  I cant read ur body language or your tone of voice.  As such sometimes slight snark can be misconstrued as being an @#$.  I'll do better next time.

LOL.  Just let it go.  Senor Fantastico had a point and proved it, and he was right.  I can't argue that point clearly without derailing this thread.  In the end it doesn't really matter.  It's certainly not the first time that I've been wrong or the first time somebody has called me on it and I'm sure it won't be the last.  The time it takes you to read my next paragraph is probably quicker than the amount of time that I am going to lose sleep over it.

Next paragraph.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board. 

C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.

Ehhhhhh....  hey look.  JIBs  cool with it so hey, but from my point of view theres a difference between going hard at someone whose going hard at you and vs. randomly going back and pulling up post history when someone's holding up their hands saying "hey just my opinion could be wrong". 

The challenge with this medium of communication is that in reality the words we use are only about 7% of the way humans communicate.  I cant read ur body language or your tone of voice.  As such sometimes slight snark can be misconstrued as being an @#$.  I'll do better next time.

I didn't "go hard" at him or randomly pull up post history. I typed two sentences 20 minutes after he did, admittedly with some slight snark.

Hardly the characterization you're trying to portray here that I just came out of the woodwork gun ablaze lol. 

Then he refuted my post to which I backed up my claim in response. Was I snarky or jerky, maybe a little bit I can admit that. But as far as my response, and pulling up post history, I'm going to defend my position just like anyone else on the board.

But it sure is rich trying to be called out by someone who I saw call another poster "a [BLEEP] liar" a day or two ago, and just now is patronizingly defining words to people. Lol too too rich. 

Anyway, JIB and I moved passed it, maybe you, who wasn't involved in any way, shape, or form can too. And if you can't feel free to move it to PM.

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Ehhhhhh....  hey look.  JIBs  cool with it so hey, but from my point of view theres a difference between going hard at someone whose going hard at you and vs. randomly going back and pulling up post history when someone's holding up their hands saying "hey just my opinion could be wrong". 

The challenge with this medium of communication is that in reality the words we use are only about 7% of the way humans communicate.  I cant read ur body language or your tone of voice.  As such sometimes slight snark can be misconstrued as being an @#$.  I'll do better next time.

I didn't "go hard" at him or randomly pull up post history. I typed two sentences 20 minutes after he did, admittedly with some slight snark.

Hardly the characterization you're trying to portray here that I just came out of the woodwork gun ablaze lol. 

Then he refuted my post to which I backed up my claim in response. Was I snarky or jerky, maybe a little bit I can admit that. But as far as my response, and pulling up post history, I'm going to defend my position just like anyone else on the board.

But it sure is rich trying to be called out by someone who I saw call another poster "a [BLEEP] liar" a day or two ago, and just now is patronizingly defining words to people. Lol too too rich. 

Anyway, JIB and I moved passed it, maybe you, who wasn't involved in any way, shape, or form can too. And if you can't feel free to move it to PM.

I would prefer for everyone to just drop it.  It's not important and it's not really important regarding the topic of this thread.   I have no problem being "called out" and another member providing evidence of quotes of what I said.  I am not afraid to admit where I was wrong and it doesn't really bother me to be called on it.  Quite frankly I learn from an exchange like this.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I'm officially done. I'm keeping my funds in the S&P500 index fund (consistent with my transfer last Tuesday).

I was expecting today's crash to actually happen on Monday but oh well, it is what it is.  My breakeven point on the S&P is 3,100 to recoup all of the $$ we lost in March.  We ended the Year (2019) at 3,250 and our high in Feb 2020 was 3,385 so it's feasible to think we could get back there in time --- hopefully by year end (Goldman Sachs forecasted 3,200 and Capital Investments forecasted 2,750) so we shall see.

I'm tired of playing day to day (especially on Red days) LOL

Good Luck Everyone .....

THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART - Tom Petty

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I'm officially done. I'm keeping my funds in the S&P500 index fund (consistent with my transfer last Tuesday).

I was expecting today's crash to actually happen on Monday but oh well, it is what it is.  My breakeven point on the S&P is 3,100 to recoup all of the $$ we lost in March.  We the Year (2019) at 3,250 and our high in Feb was 3,385 so it's feasible to think we could get back there in time --- hopefully by year end (Goldman forecasted 3,200 and Capital forecasted 2,750) so we shall see.

I'm tired of playing day to day (especially on Red days) LOL

Good Luck Everyone .....

THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART - Tom Petty

Your position will be just fine (assuming it's in a 401k).  As you (and perhaps your employer) keep contributing you are getting stocks at rock bottom prices.  Eventually the major indices are going to come back.  Just don't expect it to happen quickly.

Contrary to you I wasn't expecting such a large drop today (nearly 1000 points on the DOW), though in hindsight I should have seen it coming.  I still think that the major money managers are re-balancing and re-positioning.  I did (perhaps foolishly) buy some more Boeing today at $130.  Granted we are not talking about a large position, but I still think that this is one of the stocks that will eventually come back to it's 52 week high over the long term, and I don't see it testing it's low of less than $90.

I could be wrong about it, but I am optimistic.  I sure don't want to see the market overall test the bottoms again.

Overall I am about 10% in and 90% cash.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I have no predictions, but I dodged the bullet on this one. Late December I moved everything I had into a very low guaranteed short term stock ... Which i also done in August 2001, just one month before 9/11. The only two times I have ever done anything like that. I'm one of those hunch kind of guys, and I happily am profiting at a low rate, which beats the alternative. I will keep a close eye on where I think the bottom is, and hopefully be able to jump back in near, or at the bottom. I will say I believe that the market recovery in full won't be in 2020, maybe not even 2021. Just a hunch.

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I made 47% last year (that's what my existing money made, with no contributions.)

If you're doing it right, you aren't having to pull out or wonder about where the bottom is.

I've made back my losses and look forward to when the country gets back to work where we can pick up where we left off.

Should the country go backwards in November and elect the wrong elder for the job, things will go back to slow/no growth as it did 2008-2016. Probably worse.

If we've learned anything from this Chinese virus shutdown, it's that government constraints and intervention kills economies.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I made 47% last year (that's what my existing money made, with no contributions.)

If you're doing it right, you aren't having to pull out or wonder about where the bottom is.

I've made back my losses and look forward to when the country gets back to work where we can pick up where we left off.

Should the country go backwards in November and elect the wrong elder for the job, things will go back to slow/no growth as it did 2008-2016.  Probably worse.

If we've learned anything from this Chinese virus shutdown, it's that government constraints and intervention kills economies.

Shucks I only made 46% last year.  I guess I deserved all those downvotes you gave me...

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

I made 47% last year (that's what my existing money made, with no contributions.)

If you're doing it right, you aren't having to pull out or wonder about where the bottom is.

I've made back my losses and look forward to when the country gets back to work where we can pick up where we left off.

Should the country go backwards in November and elect the wrong elder for the job, things will go back to slow/no growth as it did 2008-2016.  Probably worse.

If we've learned anything from this Chinese virus shutdown, it's that government constraints and intervention kills economies.

Shucks I only made 46% last year.  I guess I deserved all those downvotes you gave me...

Yes, you did.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Shucks I only made 46% last year.  I guess I deserved all those downvotes you gave me...

Yes, you did.

I'll bet you didn't make even 45% last year.  He should have given you more downvotes.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Yes, you did.

I'll bet you didn't make even 45% last year.  He should have given you more downvotes.

I could make negative numbers and still be that much better than some folks around here.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

That's a fake number, it's all being propped up. Wait until all the restaurants open up and they're all bidding on beef that's not in inventory

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Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.

Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

That's a fake number, it's all being propped up. Wait until all the restaurants open up and they're all bidding on beef that's not in inventory

LOL... Okay.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

I predicted the following at the time I started this thread.  I almost nailed the Bottom Date which turned out to be 3/23/2020 but underestimated the bottom number which turned out to be 18,591 (which was over 2,000 lower than my prediction)

Prediction
1) Bottom: 20,750
2) Bottom Date:  3/20/2020 
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 27,000

Yes, Monday was a great day with regards to the market.  I'm fully invested in the S&P Index which went from 2,630 to 2,960 --- I missed the bottom of 2,237 but was very close, considering it's nearly impossible to trade at the exact bottom.  If we start going back down for some known reason (e.g. pandemic breakout round 2 w/ no vaccine), I'll go back to cash/mutual fund to stabilize my funds then get back in on the way up.  This is actually a decent time to profit but timing the trades.

Looking back I should have gone Large Cap Class II which is more tied to technology (NASDAQ) but I felt more comfortable with S&P500 when i got back in and Fidelity limits trading activity so I didn't want to go into excess trading jail (prohibiting trades for 90 days and even up to 1 year).  Overall I'm down ~ 5% from our highs and ~2.5% year to date which isn't bad considering where we were in March (down 20%+) even though I had 40% tied up in bonds.

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Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

I predicted the following at the time I started this thread.  I almost nailed the Bottom Date which turned out to be 3/23/2020 but underestimated the bottom number which turned out to be 18,591 (which was over 2,000 lower than my prediction)

2020 is still happening.

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I predicted the following at the time I started this thread.  I almost nailed the Bottom Date which turned out to be 3/23/2020 but underestimated the bottom number which turned out to be 18,591 (which was over 2,000 lower than my prediction)

2020 is still happening.

The Fed won't let us get lower than 18,591 -- (we may add $150 trillion the deficit though.... lol).   To be honest, I'm a little concerned about the potential impact of a Biden victory, as the current regime is 100% engaged with regard to the Market.

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Sounds about right.  I am kind of "kicking myself" for not pulling the trigger on a few things that I consider "on sale" right now.  The price is still good, but I didn't expect the spike that we saw in the market yesterday afternoon.  It's interesting that the surge came as The President was holding a press briefing.

I saw a good article on Schwab the other day on trying to time the market. It was showing only minimal gains over dollar cost averaging or dumping your money in at the beginning of the year in a lump sum. The funny thing was they had a hypothetical person who bought the market at the highest day each year for 20 years. That person still came out ahead. Let me link it. The point was don’t worry about missing deals. My current portfolio is proof that the market can always surprise you with its absurdity. I did buy more before trumps speech tho, so I did make up for some of the craziness.

https://workplace.schwab.com/public/work...iming-Work

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I am predicting 3 more months of turmoil before the rise happens again. 26k at end of year. I have no reason to think this, just spitballing. Low day is 4/20 at 19k for the Dow.

So I got duration and date wrong, but I was pretty close on my guess where the bottom was at. I think I am already too low for year end.

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Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 

Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.

 

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I am predicting 3 more months of turmoil before the rise happens again. 26k at end of year. I have no reason to think this, just spitballing. Low day is 4/20 at 19k for the Dow.

So I got duration and date wrong, but I was pretty close on my guess where the bottom was at. I think I am already too low for year end.

Nice --- The 19k was really close.

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