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The Dow just hit 23,650

For the sake of your prediction, let's just assume that Trump is re-elected so we don't turn this into an election debate or have to factor in any variances due to the November election. 

Prediction
1) Bottom: 20,750
2) Bottom Date:  3/20/2020 
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 27,000

I think it hits 30K by years end. It was well on its way and when Corona is handled, things will pick up where they left off. The economy is still booming.

(03-11-2020, 02:38 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I think it hits 30K by years end. It was well on its way and when Corona is handled, things will pick up where they left off. The economy is still booming.

I surely hope so.  Somebody out there has $$$ and is getting set to cash in at these low stock prices.

In the meantime, I'll just be pour some Svedka Vodka into my reusable Grey Goose bottle for use when my neighbors join us for drinks.

(03-11-2020, 03:16 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-11-2020, 02:38 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I think it hits 30K by years end. It was well on its way and when Corona is handled, things will pick up where they left off. The economy is still booming.

I surely hope so.  Somebody out there has $$$ and is getting set to cash in at these low stock prices.

In the meantime, I'll just be pour some Svedka Vodka into my reusable Grey Goose bottle for use when my neighbors join us for drinks.

I think we are near the bottom right now though it might go lower.  I don't see a recovery back to near the levels we were at until at least the end of Q3 (end of September).  It could possibly go lower.  Expect banks to go under, especially with the hit to the oil industry right now.  The bad part about all of that is it's going to lead to layoffs and the loss of jobs.

The OP is pretty much close to what my prediction would be though I don't think (hope) that it will dip down that far.

Prediction
1) Bottom: 16240
2) Bottom Date: 6/19/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 19400

(03-11-2020, 03:39 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]Prediction
1) Bottom: 16240
2) Bottom Date:  6/19/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 19400

OUCH !!!  I can't take another 33% drop and still being 20% below our current levels at year end.

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(03-11-2020, 03:39 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I think we are near the bottom right now though it might go lower.  I don't see a recovery back to near the levels we were at until at least the end of Q3 (end of September).  It could possibly go lower.  Expect banks to go under, especially with the hit to the oil industry right now.  The bad part about all of that is it's going to lead to layoffs and the loss of jobs.

The OP is pretty much close to what my prediction would be though I don't think (hope) that it will dip down that far.

Give me some numbers and dates

Prediction
1) Bottom: 
2) Bottom Date:   
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 

First, a disclaimer: I do not think anyone is capable of predicting these types of things with any certainty, and if one of us "wins," it will be entirely by accident.  (Of course, if I win, it will be "because I am a genius") But here goes anyway:

Prediction
1) Bottom: 18,000
2) Bottom Date: 7/12/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 22,500

I have always heard that bear markets last a lot longer than people think they will last.  I do think we are heading into a recession.  And it could be much worse than we anticipate.  But who the heck knows about the market?  The market is so unpredictable in the short term.

I just don't see a whole lot to drive the markets higher if we see increased spread of the virus and shutting down of many public events. The long-term effects could last many years.
We should also factor in the possibility of a mutated virus, re-infection of recovered patients, etc. Still early and info is changing daily.

I did see that the Chinese are recommending a treatment of high-dose IV Vitamin C.

We've been taking vitamin C a lot recently. Also been drinking a lot of tequila as well but that's my own home remedy.

I might have to revise my prediction after Trump's speech last night.

If the market's going to puke 1000 - 2000 points a day, it won't take long to wipe out everyone's prediction.

(03-11-2020, 04:42 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-11-2020, 03:39 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I think we are near the bottom right now though it might go lower.  I don't see a recovery back to near the levels we were at until at least the end of Q3 (end of September).  It could possibly go lower.  Expect banks to go under, especially with the hit to the oil industry right now.  The bad part about all of that is it's going to lead to layoffs and the loss of jobs.

The OP is pretty much close to what my prediction would be though I don't think (hope) that it will dip down that far.

Give me some numbers and dates

Prediction
1) Bottom: 
2) Bottom Date:   
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 

I can't really do that with any real accuracy.  I will revise my estimation as far as getting back to the levels that we were at (all time highs) out to possibly the end of Q3 2021.  The market needs to find it's bottom which I hope is soon.  Then there will be a slow increase over time to get back to where we were.  Think about it.  Businesses are being hurt by this virus and the (in my opinion) over-reaction to it.  That includes everything from large corporations to small businesses.  There will also probably be layoffs because of this due to businesses not reaching profit goals.  And that's just the "virus problem".

The other problem is the large drop in oil prices.  In the short term it does provide some relief at the gas pump for consumers, but it's going to cost jobs and losses not only to the oil industry but also the financial industry.

If I was going to throw some numbers and dates out there I would agree more with what TRM stated above.

$1.5 TRILLION STIMULUS -- NICE

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/investing...index.html

New York (CNN Business)The New York Federal Reserve is taking out the big guns to calm panicky financial markets.


The NY Fed announced plans Thursday to inject vast amounts of money into the financial system, totaling at least $1.5 trillion. And the Fed promised to start purchasing a range of Treasuries -- a step that effectively marks a return to the 2008 crisis-era bond buying program known as quantitative easing, or QE.

The Fed said the dramatic moves will address "highly unusual disruptions" in the Treasury market linked to the coronavirus outbreak. This accelerates weeklong efforts by the NY Fed aimed at easing fears that companies will lose access to capital or that markets will become unhinged.

"The Fed is all in. They've fired their nuclear weapon. and they did it because financial markets are seizing up," said James Bianco, president of Bianco Research. "There is no liquidity in the markets. They are trying to unstick them."

(03-12-2020, 05:24 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]$1.5 TRILLION STIMULUS -- NICE

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/investing...index.html

New York (CNN Business)The New York Federal Reserve is taking out the big guns to calm panicky financial markets.


The NY Fed announced plans Thursday to inject vast amounts of money into the financial system, totaling at least $1.5 trillion. And the Fed promised to start purchasing a range of Treasuries -- a step that effectively marks a return to the 2008 crisis-era bond buying program known as quantitative easing, or QE.

The Fed said the dramatic moves will address "highly unusual disruptions" in the Treasury market linked to the coronavirus outbreak. This accelerates weeklong efforts by the NY Fed aimed at easing fears that companies will lose access to capital or that markets will become unhinged.

"The Fed is all in. They've fired their nuclear weapon. and they did it because financial markets are seizing up," said James Bianco, president of Bianco Research. "There is no liquidity in the markets. They are trying to unstick them."

That came out about noon, the market went up, and then it collapsed.

Okay, here's my short term prediction based on what we know now, subject to change at any time.  

The market will briefly stabilize over the next few days as prices of individual company stocks adjust.  Up to now, stocks have been sold willy nilly, and there will be bargain hunting among the rubble.   Then after a few days of that, the market will slowly grind downward as buyers slowly realize the extent of the damage to the economy by people staying home and hunkering down.

This is the creative destruction of capitalism, where the weak are eliminated and the strong survive and prosper.

(03-14-2020, 05:55 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Okay, here's my short term prediction based on what we know now, subject to change at any time.  

The market will briefly stabilize over the next few days as prices of individual company stocks adjust.  Up to now, stocks have been sold willy nilly, and there will be bargain hunting among the rubble.   Then after a few days of that, the market will slowly grind downward as buyers slowly realize the extent of the damage to the economy by people staying home and hunkering down.

This is the creative destruction of capitalism, where the weak are eliminated and the strong survive and prosper.

Were about to print a large amount of money to compensate people put out of work.  That's in a less productive environment with less goods and services with the fed probably setting rates to zero.  Inflation drives the price of stock up.

Also it all depends on if a lot of economic activity is delayed for a few weeks or cancelled in total.

Here's an eye-opening article about a real threat to the world economy:  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/...li=BBnb7Kz


This is how a recession becomes a depression.

(03-14-2020, 05:55 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Okay, here's my short term prediction based on what we know now, subject to change at any time.  

The market will briefly stabilize over the next few days as prices of individual company stocks adjust.  Up to now, stocks have been sold willy nilly, and there will be bargain hunting among the rubble.   Then after a few days of that, the market will slowly grind downward as buyers slowly realize the extent of the damage to the economy by people staying home and hunkering down.

This is the creative destruction of capitalism, where the weak are eliminated and the strong survive and prosper.

Sounds about right.  I am kind of "kicking myself" for not pulling the trigger on a few things that I consider "on sale" right now.  The price is still good, but I didn't expect the spike that we saw in the market yesterday afternoon.  It's interesting that the surge came as The President was holding a press briefing.

(03-14-2020, 04:15 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-14-2020, 05:55 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Okay, here's my short term prediction based on what we know now, subject to change at any time.  

The market will briefly stabilize over the next few days as prices of individual company stocks adjust.  Up to now, stocks have been sold willy nilly, and there will be bargain hunting among the rubble.   Then after a few days of that, the market will slowly grind downward as buyers slowly realize the extent of the damage to the economy by people staying home and hunkering down.

This is the creative destruction of capitalism, where the weak are eliminated and the strong survive and prosper.

Sounds about right.  I am kind of "kicking myself" for not pulling the trigger on a few things that I consider "on sale" right now.  The price is still good, but I didn't expect the spike that we saw in the market yesterday afternoon.  It's interesting that the surge came as The President was holding a press briefing.

I saw a good article on Schwab the other day on trying to time the market. It was showing only minimal gains over dollar cost averaging or dumping your money in at the beginning of the year in a lump sum. The funny thing was they had a hypothetical person who bought the market at the highest day each year for 20 years. That person still came out ahead. Let me link it. The point was don’t worry about missing deals. My current portfolio is proof that the market can always surprise you with its absurdity. I did buy more before trumps speech tho, so I did make up for some of the craziness.

https://workplace.schwab.com/public/work...iming-Work

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I am predicting 3 more months of turmoil before the rise happens again. 26k at end of year. I have no reason to think this, just spitballing. Low day is 4/20 at 19k for the Dow.