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Full Version: Can Trump Win?
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(10-22-2020, 07:56 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-22-2020, 07:55 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]When have I pretended I live there?

Very odd response

So... you’ve got nothing?

What was it supposed to respond to?

Odd
(10-22-2020, 06:40 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-22-2020, 06:28 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Fauci fails at an impossible job (being a highly visible scientist when the science is not settled yet), but he does it with good intentions.

Trump fails at a possible job (coming up with workable compromises on reopenings, masks, and relief/stimulus), and he does it with bad intentions.

Is it Trunps job to come up with a reopening strategy? Isn't that a dictator move?

I would think its up to the individual states since there was no real federal shutdown and each state has/had their own phases and mandates.
(10-22-2020, 06:40 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-22-2020, 06:28 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Fauci fails at an impossible job (being a highly visible scientist when the science is not settled yet), but he does it with good intentions.

Trump fails at a possible job (coming up with workable compromises on reopenings, masks, and relief/stimulus), and he does it with bad intentions.

Is it Trunps job to come up with a reopening strategy? Isn't that a dictator move?

Democrats don't believe in individual state rights to govern.
(10-23-2020, 02:11 AM)TurndownforWatt Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-22-2020, 06:40 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Is it Trunps job to come up with a reopening strategy? Isn't that a dictator move?

Democrats don't believe in individual state rights to govern.

But they do when it involves rejecting federal help stopping rioting and looting. 

Today's Democrat is the worst kind of person.
Not only can he, he will. In convincing fashion.
Obviously, Biden is the favorite at this point, but the polling in the swing states is much closer than the national polls.   On the other hand, if you take the current swing state polls, and assume they are just as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden still wins.   But any movement towards Trump in the national polls will move all the swing states as well, so there is a pretty small margin between a Biden electoral college blowout and Trump squeaking out a win.  

I expect it to be close.   But I think if Trump loses either Florida or Pennsylvania, he will lose the election.  We'll know Florida pretty quickly, because Florida starts counting the absentee ballots early enough to have them all counted by election night.   Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is embroiled in court cases over when they have to cut off the absentee ballots, and they don't start counting until the polls close, which means it could be several days before we know the results in Pennsylvania.
(10-23-2020, 10:10 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously, Biden is the favorite at this point, but the polling in the swing states is much closer than the national polls.   On the other hand, if you take the current swing state polls, and assume they are just as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden still wins.   But any movement towards Trump in the national polls will move all the swing states as well, so there is a pretty small margin between a Biden electoral college blowout and Trump squeaking out a win.  

I expect it to be close.   But I think if Trump loses either Florida or Pennsylvania, he will lose the election.  We'll know Florida pretty quickly, because Florida starts counting the absentee ballots early enough to have them all counted by election night.   Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is embroiled in court cases over when they have to cut off the absentee ballots, and they don't start counting until the polls close, which means it could be several days before we know the results in Pennsylvania.

Trumps gain among African American and Latino voters is being severely underestimated. I think he takes FL down easily.

As far as PA. I am guessing a lot of early voters wish they had their votes back after Joe's comments last night.
I have a friend who was an illegal immigrant from El Salvador that has become a citizen. He's super pro-Trump. It's anecdotal, but he said he thinks a lot of the Hispanic community has secretly become fans of Trump. My neighbor is Cuban, and he's pro-Trump, but that's not really surprising.
(10-23-2020, 10:50 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I have a friend who was an illegal immigrant from El Salvador that has become a citizen. He's super pro-Trump. It's anecdotal, but he said he thinks a lot of the Hispanic community has secretly become fans of Trump. My neighbor is Cuban, and he's pro-Trump, but that's not really surprising.

Hispanic vote? Cmon Jack, don't you remember when creepy joe did this to win them over?

(10-23-2020, 10:59 AM)Jagwired Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2020, 10:50 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I have a friend who was an illegal immigrant from El Salvador that has become a citizen. He's super pro-Trump. It's anecdotal, but he said he thinks a lot of the Hispanic community has secretly become fans of Trump. My neighbor is Cuban, and he's pro-Trump, but that's not really surprising.

Hispanic vote? Cmon Jack, don't you remember when creepy joe did this to win them over?


One of the most cringeworthy moments of this election cycle. I would think that has the opposite effect and is insulting to Latinos.
(10-23-2020, 11:07 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2020, 10:59 AM)Jagwired Wrote: [ -> ]Hispanic vote? Cmon Jack, don't you remember when creepy joe did this to win them over?


One of the most cringeworthy moments of this election cycle. I would think know for a fact that has the opposite effect and is insulting to Latinos.
FTFY. You are welcome.
(10-23-2020, 10:59 AM)Jagwired Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2020, 10:50 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I have a friend who was an illegal immigrant from El Salvador that has become a citizen. He's super pro-Trump. It's anecdotal, but he said he thinks a lot of the Hispanic community has secretly become fans of Trump. My neighbor is Cuban, and he's pro-Trump, but that's not really surprising.

Hispanic vote? Cmon Jack, don't you remember when creepy joe did this to win them over?


This is why I hate the Democratic agenda. They unapologetically pander to minorities. It's so embarrassingly blatant. Biden looked like a clueless fool here.
Another messageboard that I'm on, the Politics subforum leans mostly left. They are convinced Biden has this in the bag. Then you tune in to Fox, and they praise Trump's debate performance last night. At CNN, its the exact opposite

My opinion, it doesn't matter which old geezer we put in the White House. Let's get this election over with so we all can move on with our lives
(10-23-2020, 06:38 PM)jaglyn Wrote: [ -> ]Another messageboard that I'm on, the Politics subforum leans mostly left. They are convinced Biden has this in the bag. Then you tune in to Fox, and they praise Trump's debate performance last night. At CNN, its the exact opposite

My opinion, it doesn't matter which old geezer we put in the White House. Let's get this election over with so we all can move on with our lives

Yes it does.  If you’re not aware of why, then just stay home.
(10-23-2020, 06:57 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2020, 06:38 PM)jaglyn Wrote: [ -> ]Another messageboard that I'm on, the Politics subforum leans mostly left. They are convinced Biden has this in the bag. Then you tune in to Fox, and they praise Trump's debate performance last night. At CNN, its the exact opposite

My opinion, it doesn't matter which old geezer we put in the White House. Let's get this election over with so we all can move on with our lives

Yes it does.  If you’re not aware of why, then just stay home.

I stayed home and mailed my ballot in today.  Smile
Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who thinks Trump will lose, is nervous about this election. He says if Trump wins the careers of pollsters are over because no one will believe them again. He’s right.
(10-24-2020, 10:01 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who thinks Trump will lose, is nervous about this election. He says if Trump wins the careers of pollsters are over because no one will believe them again. He’s right.

Absolutely.  I am making an educated guess, but if Trump wins in spite of what the polls are saying, it's because a particular slice of the electorate doesn't want to participate in polls.  And that would mean the death of polling, because if your sample doesn't represent a true cross-section of likely voters, then it's worthless.
(10-24-2020, 10:01 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who thinks Trump will lose, is nervous about this election. He says if Trump wins the careers of pollsters are over because no one will believe them again. He’s right.

Less Frank Luntz is better for everyone. This is a non-partisan issue.
(10-24-2020, 10:10 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-24-2020, 10:01 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who thinks Trump will lose, is nervous about this election. He says if Trump wins the careers of pollsters are over because no one will believe them again. He’s right.

Absolutely.  I am making an educated guess, but if Trump wins in spite of what the polls are saying, it's because a particular slice of the electorate doesn't want to participate in polls.  And that would mean the death of polling, because if your sample doesn't represent a true cross-section of likely voters, then it's worthless.

Not because I don't want to. I have yet to be contacted for a poll other than a few that pop up while YouTubing. I am registered Rep. and lived at same address and same contacts for 30 plus years. I just find that odd. How many like me are out there? Same for the Dems. and Independents.
(10-24-2020, 10:01 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who thinks Trump will lose, is nervous about this election. He says if Trump wins the careers of pollsters are over because no one will believe them again. He’s right.

As long as there are elections, there will be pollsters.  I can already hear the excuses, "The computer model didn't account for the significant number of voters who.............."

In four years, they'll be back with "new and improved analytics".
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