At this exact point on the calendar, Biden is polling about 5% better than where Clinton was in 2016 on the exact same date. In 2016, the national polling averages had Clinton with a 4% lead, whereas right now, the polling averages give Biden a 9% lead. Also, Clinton was polling at 45%, while right now Biden is polling at 51%.
60 million people have already voted.
Betting odds (people actually putting money on it) favor Biden by 65% to 35%.
So there are only two questions: are the polls correct, and who will turn out and vote. Pollsters claim they have corrected the errors they made in 2016. And you have to remember also, if you changed just 80,000 votes in certain swing states from Trump to Clinton, Clinton would have won.
I think Trump has a chance. But if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Biden.
A lot of you guys say things like "I think Trump will win, because everyone I know is voting for Trump." Surely you see the fallacy in that.
(10-26-2020, 10:05 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]At this exact point on the calendar, Biden is polling about 5% better than where Clinton was in 2016 on the exact same date. In 2016, the national polling averages had Clinton with a 4% lead, whereas right now, the polling averages give Biden a 9% lead. Also, Clinton was polling at 45%, while right now Biden is polling at 51%.
60 million people have already voted.
Betting odds (people actually putting money on it) favor Biden by 65% to 35%.
So there are only two questions: are the polls correct, and who will turn out and vote. Pollsters claim they have corrected the errors they made in 2016. And you have to remember also, if you changed just 80,000 votes in certain swing states from Trump to Clinton, Clinton would have won.
I think Trump has a chance. But if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Biden.
A lot of you guys say things like "I think Trump will win, because everyone I know is voting for Trump." Surely you see the fallacy in that.
And surely you stand to make much more money if you bet on Trump. Just a thought, but maybe the Polls are crooked to swing the betting odds? I mean it's not like Vegas isn't dirty, even after the supposed cleanup.
I think people that haven't adopted alternative forms of news information are most susceptible to being influenced towards Biden. I was in Orlando, and my former conservative sister-in-law is voting for Biden and her husband abstained. This isn't a good sign. I realize it's anecdotal, but there is a ton of misinformation out there, and I think there are a sizable amount of independents that just want things to return to normal, and I think they think that voting for Biden will do that. I don't really pay attention to the polls (because I think they are wrong). I try to watch for trends I see happening in different circles. Right now, it seems like Biden has a secret swell of support. I hope I'm wrong.
(10-26-2020, 10:43 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I think people that haven't adopted alternative forms of news are most susceptible to being influenced towards Biden. I wasinformation in Orlando, and my former conservative sister-in-law is voting for Biden and her husband abstained. This isn't a good sign. I realize it's anecdotal, but there is a ton of misinformation out there, and I think there are a sizable amount of independents that just want things to return to normal, and I think they think that voting for Biden will do that. I don't really pay attention to the polls (because I think they are wrong). I try to watch for trends I see happening in different circles. Right now, it seems like Biden has a secret swell of support. I hope I'm wrong.
An interesting thing Edward Snowden said about elected officials and journalism....
"The attempts by elected officials to delegitimize journalism have been aided and abetted by a full-on assault on the principle of truth. What is real is being purposefully conflated with what is fake, through technologies that are capable of scaling that conflation into unprecedented global confusion."
It would be foolish for anyone to dispute this because it's obviously true.