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Shop was packed with transplants getting service Incase they have to leave, I laughed inside but it's great for business. I expect when we go do our weekly shopping Sunday plenty of stuff will be out of stock.

It's because they hyped it up and declared a state wide emergency.

Since when has a hurricane gone into the gulf by going north across Cuba, and then continuing north, and making a right turn across FL?

The models were all over the place but NHC chose to use the Euro model. That one has been better so far this year but not with this storm. They are finally moving it west to where it was always going to go based on history.

The storms in the gulf generally move west from where they start the cone. It could even miss FL if it slows down a bit.

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The farther west it goes the more interesting it could be for NC. I guess we'll see. This looks like a similar path to Hurricane Michael that destroyed that town in the panhandle before moving on through GA, SC and NC.

(09-25-2022, 12:12 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]It's because they hyped it up and declared a state wide emergency.

Since when has a hurricane gone into the gulf by going north across Cuba, and then continuing north, and making a right turn across FL?

The models were all over the place but NHC chose to use the Euro model. That one has been better so far this year but not with this storm. They are finally moving it west to where it was always going to go based on history.

The storms in the gulf generally move west from where they start the cone. It could even miss FL if it slows down a bit.

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Hurricane Charley in 2004. And it was a bad mother huncher.

(09-25-2022, 10:56 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-25-2022, 12:12 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]It's because they hyped it up and declared a state wide emergency.

Since when has a hurricane gone into the gulf by going north across Cuba, and then continuing north, and making a right turn across FL?

The models were all over the place but NHC chose to use the Euro model. That one has been better so far this year but not with this storm. They are finally moving it west to where it was always going to go based on history.

The storms in the gulf generally move west from where they start the cone. It could even miss FL if it slows down a bit.

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Hurricane Charley in 2004. And it was a bad mother huncher.

It hit south Florida though. Usually they don't turn right into Tampa coming from that direction. They may go near but not usually cross over the state.


Update track is putting a lot of rain, could be up to 1 ft, in the Jacksonville area starting on Wednesday. That's probably high but be prepared for no power.

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Let the show begin -- stay safe !!

Euro model has it bending toward Tampa. This is due to the low pressure (cool front) that will be pushing in wind from the northern Gulf.

GFS model has it heading to Panama City region.

Euro is right most of the time.

(09-26-2022, 09:13 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Euro model has it bending toward Tampa.  This is due to the low pressure (cool front) that will be pushing in wind from the northern Gulf.

GFS model has it heading to Panama City region.

Euro is right most of the time.

Euro has been right this year but it's different year to year.

The Euro was wrong with this storm in the beginning and right now the NHC is splitting the difference.

The Euro is now aligning with the GFS for the 06z run until the Euro has it kinda of stalling out west of Tampa and just dumping a ton of ran on FL.

It's gotten stupid.  Stores near me in "the middle of nowhere" Florida are out of bottled water and a lot of staples.  I can somewhat understand the water thing since the majority of people around here have wells and if power goes out, the pump doesn't work.

Gas stations are also already running out of fuel.  Again I can somewhat understand that because of the well thing and the need to run a generator.

The thing is, it's not going to be much worse for us than an "average" storm this time of year in my location.  The biggest threat is that the ground is already saturated so more rain and heavy wind brings the potential for trees to come down.

I have fuel for my tractors and chain saws, plenty of food and water for my wife and I as well as our dog and cat.  If power does go out for us I have 2 generators ready to go and fuel for them as well.

I am pretty sure that it's going to be a "nothing burger" for most of the Jacksonville area.

I live in Western NY and it's the same thing when a snow storm is supposedly coming. It's really funny to me. My favorite line I've said about it is "You guys survive on 3 diet cokes a day and now all of a sudden you need 5 gallons of water per person per day?"

What is everybody's thoughts on this hurricane. Experience says it could be significant as it just got forecasted a little closer to Jax... When it makes it to us, it could still be a Cat 2 strength and that could cause some damage...

Started prepping today.. The wife and I went out and bought some can goods, toilet paper, batteries ect ect.

Plenty of fuel (2) 5 gallon cans for the generators
Plenty of water (5) 5 gallon water jugs
Plenty of soup, coffee, chef boyardee, microwavable meals..
Yard debris removed and cut back
A couple of AC window units (Just in case)
Plenty of weed

Bring it on!!


Edit: Probably a good idea to keep some physical cash on ya for this..

We long time Florida residents recognize that you should always stay alert and pay attention to the forecast but there's no reason to panic. The worst hurricanes for us are generally the ones coming from the Atlantic. This one will probably cause some locally heavy rains and probably a bit of flooding but storm surge will be negligible relatively speaking and the winds will probably < tropical storm force. Maybe a tree down here or there. Tampa to Cedar Key is sweating though since they have to deal with the storm surge.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JhJhHAMq6gY

Here's a live look from NBC on Youtube..

(09-26-2022, 12:13 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-25-2022, 10:56 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote: [ -> ]Hurricane Charley in 2004. And it was a bad mother huncher.

It hit south Florida though. Usually they don't turn right into Tampa coming from that direction. They may go near but not usually cross over the state.


Update track is putting a lot of rain, could be up to 1 ft, in the Jacksonville area starting on Wednesday. That's probably high but be prepared for no power.

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Hurricane Wilma in 05 went west to east across the state too.  Be like WingerDinger and fill your gas tank, get a few gallons of fresh water, and some cash.  A couple boxes of cereal ain't a bad idea either.

I've been through a bunch of these in hurricane alley (NC), but  they always hit stronger down South.

Last minute stuff like filling gas tanks/cans, charging batteries for portable fans, getting bags of ice, and such withstanding we're always prepped so we don't have to worry about crowds and lines. Even with those things I'm getting it done sooner than most folks around here. We get hurricanes and snow storms yet the folks around here don't bother keeping supplies ready. It makes no sense. 

I came thisclose to buying a generator last week but me and hubby hadn't discussed it and that's a chunk of money to spend without both agreeing to it. I've been trying to get him to buy one for years now. I may just have to make the command decision someday soon.

(09-26-2022, 02:17 PM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]Started prepping today.. The wife and I went out and bought some can goods, toilet paper, batteries ect ect.

Plenty of fuel (2) 5 gallon cans for the generators
Plenty of water (5) 5 gallon water jugs
Plenty of soup, coffee, chef boyardee, microwavable meals..
Yard debris removed and cut back
A couple of AC window units (Just in case)
Plenty of weed

Bring it on!!


Edit: Probably a good idea to keep some physical cash on ya for this..

This is about where I am at.  Between Costco, Weedmans and Publix, I’ve got about 30 days worth in meats, TP, and a whole bunch of other crap.  Mainly pickles.  Damn they’re good.  I keep a lawn trailer in my garage.  So aside from the 10+\- gallons of gas, I filled another 5 gallon for me personally on the companies dime.  I’ve got charcoal, wood and 2 60 lb propane tanks (from the travel trailer).  Many ways to cook it.  I also have 4 months worth of freeze dried “SHTF” food.  I don’t stock up on water though.  Worse case scenario, I’ll boil it.  But I do have some on hand and I hear the storm will give me some for free.

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I do need to stock up on beer though. I normally just buy my nightly allotment. But I’ve got plenty of cash on hand to buy it and laugh at the teeny boppers trying to figure out how much change if it’s cash only.

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Mainly, I’m hoping for a complete washout and restart fresh the following week at work. Love me unexpected off days!

(09-26-2022, 06:37 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]Mainly, I’m hoping for a complete washout and restart fresh the following week at work. Love me unexpected off days!

Some time on Wednesday it looks like it will start raining and depending on which model it won't stop until some time on Saturday. Hopefully power stays on, not really worried about the wind as my home meets codes to I think a cat 3. As long as no trees from nearby go airborne should be good.

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(09-26-2022, 07:41 PM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-26-2022, 06:37 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]Mainly, I’m hoping for a complete washout and restart fresh the following week at work.  Love me unexpected off days!

Some time on Wednesday it looks like it will start raining and depending on which model it won't stop until some time on Saturday. Hopefully power stays on, not really worried about the wind as my home meets codes to I think a cat 3. As long as no trees from nearby go airborne should be good.

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Ugh! I guess a 3 day week for us.  I’m sure itll create issues the following week as well with the expected amount of rain.  I’m not too worried about it.  One day  at a time!   

My house should be good as well with the exceptions you’ve mentioned.  What is funny is the last storm, we had roof damage and it started leaking.  But we were already scheduled to have our roof redone a week or so later.  This time, if anything happens to the windows, we’ll be good.  We’re supposed to have new windows all around on the 3rd.  I’m sure this storm will push it back a few days. But I’m not even concerned if we have any projectiles (so long no one is injured).