Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

So 1999 scarred me. Clearly if we beat the Titans we'll be in. But just in case we lose to the Titans in the final week, what combination of other teams losing would we need to make the wild card slot?

I wouldn’t worry too much about it. It would take a perfect storm of unlikely game results to get there.

Playing around with the playoff scenario generator at ESPN, I do find it interesting that the week 18 games of cowgirls at commies and ravens at bungles to be intriguing enough to potentially snub us from SNF in our game against the tacks. Specifically the cowgirls game could be a win or go home for the commies. If our game doesn’t get SNF, there’s a chance it could be played Saturday night instead as I believe they’ve left that entire weekend as TBD. I still think our game where one team goes on and the other probably goes home is what they’ll be looking for in an SNF game.

A lot. For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out. Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules. But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins. The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...

week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us

week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks

week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets

We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks. This part of it seems very likely.

(12-23-2022, 10:56 AM)AndyNovo Wrote: [ -> ]So 1999 scarred me. Clearly if we beat the Titans we'll be in. But just in case we lose to the Titans in the final week, what combination of other teams losing would we need to make the wild card slot?

Main thing is you want Miami to lose out. That is probably the easiest path.

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(12-23-2022, 11:17 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn’t worry too much about it.  It would take a perfect storm of unlikely game results to get there.

Playing around with the playoff scenario generator at ESPN, I do find it interesting that the week 18 games of cowgirls at commies and ravens at bungles to be intriguing enough to potentially snub us from SNF in our game against the tacks.  Specifically the cowgirls game could be a win or go home for the commies.  If our game doesn’t get SNF, there’s a chance it could be played Saturday night instead as I believe they’ve left that entire weekend as TBD.  I still think our game where one team goes on and the other probably goes home is what they’ll be looking for in an SNF game.

Do we want the SNF? I'm thinking more about the fanbase. Would be nice for it to be a true home game.

(12-23-2022, 11:17 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Playing around with the playoff scenario generator at ESPN, I do find it interesting that the week 18 games of cowgirls at commies and ravens at bungles to be intriguing enough to potentially snub us from SNF in our game against the tacks.  Specifically the cowgirls game could be a win or go home for the commies.  If our game doesn’t get SNF, there’s a chance it could be played Saturday night instead as I believe they’ve left that entire weekend as TBD.  I still think our game where one team goes on and the other probably goes home is what they’ll be looking for in an SNF game.

Looks like there are 3 games that final weekend which are in their own timeslot.  Sat at 4:30, Sat 8:15, Sun 8:20.  It'd be ridiculous if we aren't one of those three.

(12-23-2022, 11:18 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot.  For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out.  Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules.  But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins.  The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...

week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us

week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks

week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets

We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks.  This part of it seems very likely.

The only unlikely outcomes in that list are the dolphins losing to the pats and jets, but I'd say it's pretty unlikely.

(12-23-2022, 11:23 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-23-2022, 11:17 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Playing around with the playoff scenario generator at ESPN, I do find it interesting that the week 18 games of cowgirls at commies and ravens at bungles to be intriguing enough to potentially snub us from SNF in our game against the tacks.  Specifically the cowgirls game could be a win or go home for the commies.  If our game doesn’t get SNF, there’s a chance it could be played Saturday night instead as I believe they’ve left that entire weekend as TBD.  I still think our game where one team goes on and the other probably goes home is what they’ll be looking for in an SNF game.

Looks like there are 3 games that final weekend which are in their own timeslot.  Sat at 4:30, Sat 8:15, Sun 8:20.  It'd be ridiculous if we aren't one of those three.

Yeah we’re getting one of the 3 for sure unless we fumble the bag at Houston and the tacks win their next 2.  I don’t get the sense that’s going to happen though.

(12-23-2022, 11:27 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-23-2022, 11:18 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot.  For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out.  Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules.  But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins.  The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...

week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us

week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks

week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets

We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks.  This part of it seems very likely.

The only unlikely outcomes in that list are the dolphins losing to the pats and jets, but I'd say it's pretty unlikely.

It's definitely possible. Chargers showed you can slow their offense down by being more physical, and both Jets and Patriots already played them, so they are familiar with their concepts.

Question is if Jets QB can get healthy and if Patriots realize they need to start Zappe over Mac.

We haven’t had a home SNF game since like 2006 I think. Wild.

(12-23-2022, 11:30 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-23-2022, 11:27 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]The only unlikely outcomes in that list are the dolphins losing to the pats and jets, but I'd say it's pretty unlikely.

It's definitely possible. Chargers showed you can slow their offense down by being more physical, and both Jets and Patriots already played them, so they are familiar with their concepts.

Question is if Jets QB can get healthy and if Patriots realize they need to start Zappe over Mac.

Yea I think it is very unlikely for all that to play out.  But I do agree about the Dolphins.  I don't think they are fantastic.  I don't think they'll lose to the packers at home this weekend.  But the Packers are still alive for the playoffs and maybe Aaron Rodgers gets hot for a game.  I could definitely see the Dolphins losing at the Patriots in week 17 as new england will still have something to play for.  But in the scenario I listed out above, I don't think the Jets would still be alive for the playoffs the last week of the year.  Would be a lot to expect them to upset the dolphins on the road with nothing to play for.

Part of this thinking is the, somewhat likely, world where we don't need to beat Houston to keep the chance at the division. In which case we have some possibility of resting people. Which sounds nice from a healthy push into the playoffs perspective but maybe irresponsible if the path to the playoffs without a Titans win exists.

(12-23-2022, 12:59 PM)AndyNovo Wrote: [ -> ]Part of this thinking is the, somewhat likely, world where we don't need to beat Houston to keep the chance at the division. In which case we have some possibility of resting people. Which sounds nice from a healthy push into the playoffs perspective but maybe irresponsible if the path to the playoffs without a Titans win exists.

If the tacks lose to the tinhorns tomorrow, we can rest players vs the tinhorns. 

If they don't -  they could still lose to the cowboys on next Thursday night the 29th  - allowing us to choose to rest starters on Jan 1. 

If tacks win both games - we can't rest anyone. 

Simple.

Never overlook the Tinhorns, no matter how bad they appear to be. I remember during the last years of Del Rio’s teams, and even a bad Houston team was a thorn on our side, and losses to them kept us from clinching the playoffs

How much more fun is it to watch meaningful December football?

This team has not disappointed.

(12-23-2022, 01:20 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-23-2022, 12:59 PM)AndyNovo Wrote: [ -> ]Part of this thinking is the, somewhat likely, world where we don't need to beat Houston to keep the chance at the division. In which case we have some possibility of resting people. Which sounds nice from a healthy push into the playoffs perspective but maybe irresponsible if the path to the playoffs without a Titans win exists.

If the tacks lose to the tinhorns tomorrow, we can rest players vs the tinhorns. 

If they don't -  they could still lose to the cowboys on next Thursday night the 29th  - allowing us to choose to rest starters on Jan 1. 

If tacks win both games - we can't rest anyone. 

Simple.

Convenient that they play 2 games prior to ours which gives us complete clarity on what we need to do against the tinhorns days ahead of the game.

We have to beat the Titans. That’s the only way we’re getting in.

(12-23-2022, 01:37 PM)Rockman1966 Wrote: [ -> ]How much more fun is it to watch meaningful December football?

This team has not disappointed.

meaningful January games right around the corner

(12-23-2022, 02:21 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]We have to beat the Titans. That’s the only way we’re getting in.

Nah, not 100% true but we would need a miracle for a 7th seed. There is a sliver of hope we get in IF we beat Houston and lose to TEN

Tenn loses 2/3 (we can lose to them)
SD loses out (grade A choke artist team, seriously they are the AFC version of the Cowboys)
BAL loses 2/3 (probable with no Lamar)
NE loses 2/3

and so on. Would need Miami to handle some business too, and Im sure I am missing a few more needed scenarios for a 7th seed to happen, but I got it to work in the ESPN Playoff machine!

(12-23-2022, 01:20 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-23-2022, 12:59 PM)AndyNovo Wrote: [ -> ]Part of this thinking is the, somewhat likely, world where we don't need to beat Houston to keep the chance at the division. In which case we have some possibility of resting people. Which sounds nice from a healthy push into the playoffs perspective but maybe irresponsible if the path to the playoffs without a Titans win exists.

If the tacks lose to the tinhorns tomorrow, we can rest players vs the tinhorns. 

If they don't -  they could still lose to the cowboys on next Thursday night the 29th  - allowing us to choose to rest starters on Jan 1. 

If tacks win both games - we can't rest anyone. 

Simple.

You think the team will actually rest starters in that case?  I mean, those slugs currently have a 9 game winning streak over us.  Something tells me the team won't want to lay down and let it get to 10.

Imo this team has already exceeded expectations. If we make the playoffs its icing on the cake. If we cannot beat the Texas/Titans we do not deserve to be in the post season. It's fun right now.