Could go any direction here. There are needs to be filled. There will likely be 7 draft picks to start out with. Trade or no trade, it will not upset me. My honest opinion:
Trade down in the 1st and grade more picks. It doesn't have to be a huge drop. Maybe a few picks down from the current spot. The ideal situation would be to have 4-5 picks in the first 3 rounds if possible. Aside from working primarily on the OL, you have to add some starters and depth on the DL and secondary. Adding a WR or possibly two. I don't see this team making multiple huge splashes in FA. Grab more picks and build through the draft. I would feel slightly better with Baalke having 9-10 picks than him having 7 picks. Few more chances to hit on a player that can contribute early. When the injury bug came last year, we saw that depth was lacking. Especially, on the OL and DL.
It strictly depends on who is available with the 17th selection and whether or not you view that prospect as a potential cornerstone piece to your franchise or even a Pro-Bowl caliber football player. For me, there's three guys at that 17th selection that would require a King's Ransom of an offer to consider moving down.
And by King's Ransom, I am talking, I want your 2nd and 3rd RD pick in this draft with us swapping our 1st RD picks and I want your future 1st or 2nd in next year's draft. That's the only way I entertain the offer. But, the following three players are guys I would take and not lose any sleep over.
1. Brian Thomas Jr. - WR - LSU - He has WR1 potential written all over him. Gives us everything we've been lacking in one neat package. Has a Higgins/Jefferson vibe to him.
2. Quinyon Mitchell - CB - Toledo - He's going to be a good CB, especially earlier on, just a really sticky M2M CB. Gives you breathing room if Tyson Campbell regresses.
3. Laiatu Latu - EDGE - UCLA - His medical history is interesting, if he slips here, I am taking him. Dominate player for two years. Very high ceiling. T.J Watt potential.
OK, I'll bite:
This draft is absolutely loaded at OL and WR. I think the general consensus is that interior OL is greatest need, and there are at least 3 first rounders that will be there when we pick at 17. If they aren't there, that will mean that another position of need will. Fortunately for the Jags, we don't need a QB and several other teams do. With 4 teams picking QBs, it will be like we are now picking at 13 instead of 17.
Borrowed from another thread and updated for the combine, here are the 9 players that won't be there at 17: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, Joe Alt, Malik Nabers, Dallas Turner, JJ McCarthy. 4 QBs, the consensus best 3 receivers, the best tackle and best edge.
So now there's 7 players between that will be picked before #17 to be grabbed before our pick. I don't think these guys will fall, but one or two might: Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold.
If any of those fall, I think I keep the pick and take the player, unless offered a smoking deal. If they are off the board and a QB like Nix or Penix is chosen before 16, then yes, if I were GM I'd be looking to trade out and acquire more picks. Now, we just need a partner and a decent offer, which is never guaranteed. At the end of the day (one), it's all about the offer.
If anything trade up. How could you have any confidence in Baalke with more picks? He had 14 picks last year? After Anton in the first who else splashed? Washington and Johnson I guess. Since he has taken over in 21, after the first round I’d say he best pick is Cisco, 3rd round. I’ve got zero confidence in the evaluation process we have 3 years of results. Trade up and get a guarantee, best we can do imo. Unfortunately…
(03-06-2024, 11:48 AM)The_Franchise_QB Wrote: [ -> ]If anything trade up. How could you have any confidence in Baalke with more picks? He had 14 picks last year? After Anton in the first who else splashed? Washington and Johnson I guess. Since he has taken over in 21, after the first round I’d say he best pick is Cisco, 3rd round. I’ve got zero confidence in the evaluation process we have 3 years of results. Trade up and get a guarantee, best we can do imo. Unfortunately…
I'm trying to trade up for Odunze.
If not, I'm trading my 2nd rounder for Sneed and drafting BTJ or AD Mitchell at 17.
I could see moving down a few spots and still getting a premier lineman. I would like to have at least a 3rd back to make up for the Ridley loss. I would take JPJ if he's there at 17, I'm less sold on the other centers and all of the DBs. He's the only guy I absolutely take if he's there, otherwise I could see moving down up to 10 spots depending on who is available and the offer. I'd rather have 3 picks between 40 and 70 in this draft than the one guy at 17.
Depends on who is available when we pick and what the trade offer is
(03-06-2024, 11:38 AM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]OK, I'll bite:
This draft is absolutely loaded at OL and WR. I think the general consensus is that interior OL is greatest need, and there are at least 3 first rounders that will be there when we pick at 17. If they aren't there, that will mean that another position of need will. Fortunately for the Jags, we don't need a QB and several other teams do. With 4 teams picking QBs, it will be like we are now picking at 13 instead of 17.
Borrowed from another thread and updated for the combine, here are the 9 players that won't be there at 17: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, Joe Alt, Malik Nabers, Dallas Turner, JJ McCarthy. 4 QBs, the consensus best 3 receivers, the best tackle and best edge.
So now there's 7 players between that will be picked before #17 to be grabbed before our pick. I don't think these guys will fall, but one or two might: Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold.
If any of those fall, I think I keep the pick and take the player, unless offered a smoking deal. If they are off the board and a QB like Nix or Penix is chosen before 16, then yes, if I were GM I'd be looking to trade out and acquire more picks. Now, we just need a partner and a decent offer, which is never guaranteed. At the end of the day (one), it's all about the offer.
I'd have a similar approach to you. The only difference is that the only 2 players I'd stay at 17 for would be Bowers and Mitchell. If they keep Robinson, which looks likely, there'd be no need to take Fashanu. Arnold is highly regarded, but I'm not sure how much better he'll be than Wiggins, Tampa, Rakestraw and DeJean.
Of course, much will depend on the moves they make in free agency. I don't expect Ridley to be back, so they are likely to have significant needs on the interior of both lines (center, guard, 2 DT), cornerback, Edge rusher and wide receiver. That means a total of 7 additions to either be a starter or major contributor. I'd expect them to likely add 3 of these in free agency and hopefully 4 in the draft. It's doubtful that they could add 4 key players in the draft, so trading back a few spots should enable them to address an additional need and still get a very good player in the first round. No doubt, by trading back to no higher than 25, they could still end up with one of the defensive tackles (Newton or Murphy), a pass rusher (Verse, Latu), an interior lineman (Fautanu or JPJ) or cornerback (Wiggins, Rakestraw, Arnold or DeJean).
Guys don’t get too complicated with this
Draft the BA WR or OL
RD 2 BA CB
Thomas JR - Quinyon - or JPJ
We should be happy with either , and one of those guys will be there
You said trade down? Say no more fam! I gotchu!
I just kept saying "Yes" to every offer that came up, bow down peasants! Where is my crown and scepter?!?
93rd. - Trey Benson - RB
96th. - Jeremiah Trotter - ILB
115th. - Theo Johnson - TE
116th. - Zach Frazier - C
119th. - James Williams - S/OLB
120th. - Malachi Corley - WR
135th. - Tanor Bortolini - C
160th. - Cam Hart - CB
184th. - Keith Randolph Jr. - DT
189th. - Joe Milton III - QB
197th. - Caedan Wallace - OT
219th. - Luke McCaffrey - WR
Picked-Up the Following Draft Picks in 2025:
CLE - 2nd RD, 3rd RD, 4th RD
CIN - 3rd RD, 4th RD, 5th RD
SEA - 2nd RD, 3rd RD
BUF - 2nd RD
IND - 2nd RD
ATL - 3rd RD
BAL - 4th RD
(03-06-2024, 04:57 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]You said trade down? Say no more fam! I gotchu!
I just kept saying "Yes" to every offer that came up, bow down peasants! Where is my crown and scepter?!?
93rd. - Trey Benson - RB
96th. - Jeremiah Trotter - ILB
115th. - Theo Johnson - TE
116th. - Zach Frazier - C
119th. - James Williams - S/OLB
120th. - Malachi Corley - WR
135th. - Tanor Bortolini - C
160th. - Cam Hart - CB
184th. - Keith Randolph Jr. - DT
189th. - Joe Milton III - QB
197th. - Caedan Wallace - OT
219th. - Luke McCaffrey - WR
Picked-Up the Following Draft Picks in 2025:
CLE - 2nd RD, 3rd RD, 4th RD
CIN - 3rd RD, 4th RD, 5th RD
SEA - 2nd RD, 3rd RD
BUF - 2nd RD
IND - 2nd RD
ATL - 3rd RD
BAL - 4th RD
Dont give baalke any ideas =P
(03-07-2024, 01:58 PM)g1ml3t Wrote: [ -> ] (03-06-2024, 04:57 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]You said trade down? Say no more fam! I gotchu!
I just kept saying "Yes" to every offer that came up, bow down peasants! Where is my crown and scepter?!?
93rd. - Trey Benson - RB
96th. - Jeremiah Trotter - ILB
115th. - Theo Johnson - TE
116th. - Zach Frazier - C
119th. - James Williams - S/OLB
120th. - Malachi Corley - WR
135th. - Tanor Bortolini - C
160th. - Cam Hart - CB
184th. - Keith Randolph Jr. - DT
189th. - Joe Milton III - QB
197th. - Caedan Wallace - OT
219th. - Luke McCaffrey - WR
Picked-Up the Following Draft Picks in 2025:
CLE - 2nd RD, 3rd RD, 4th RD
CIN - 3rd RD, 4th RD, 5th RD
SEA - 2nd RD, 3rd RD
BUF - 2nd RD
IND - 2nd RD
ATL - 3rd RD
BAL - 4th RD
Dont give baalke any ideas =P
I was picking like I was Baalke. In fairness, those are pretty damn good RD3 values there, and, it fits his M.O perfectly. Somehow, someway, this team is getting a RB and LB in the draft at some point.
The ultimate Baalke draft would be to own every draft pick from the 5th round down, he could bring in 128 players per year! [added in the 32 comp picks]
Let's do a sample:
Philly wants to replace Kelce, has fallen in love with JPJ (thanks Mikey). They will give you their lower 2nd rounder to move up.
Philly gets #17.
Jax gets #22 and #53. Philly's not telling you who they are picking, but you've figured it out.
Do you pull the trigger?
(03-07-2024, 10:15 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]Let's do a sample:
Philly wants to replace Kelce, has fallen in love with JPP. They will give you their lower 2nd rounder to move up.
Philly gets #17.
Jax gets #22 and #53. Philly's not telling you who they are picking, but you've figured it out.
Do you pull the trigger?
Again, just depends on who is on the board there at #17. Giving up 5 spots in the 1st RD to pick-up just the 53rd pick is interesting. You're now giving the following teams a chance to pick a player you may have wanted or hoped would be there at 22.
Bengals
Rams
Steelers
Dolphins
Three of those four teams are play off caliber AFC teams and could be directly competing against you for one of the 7th seeds in the conference. Would be a pisser if we moved back and they took guys like Brian Thomas Jr., Quinyon Mitchell, Laiatu Latu, etc.
I don't think I could pull the trigger for just a 53rd overall pick. I'd counter offer.
I'll give you 17 for picks 22, 50 & 160 and next year's 2nd RD pick. If you want to move up that bad I want to see more effort. LOL.
(03-07-2024, 10:15 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]Let's do a sample:
Philly wants to replace Kelce, has fallen in love with JPP. They will give you their lower 2nd rounder to move up.
Philly gets #17.
Jax gets #22 and #53. Philly's not telling you who they are picking, but you've figured it out.
Do you pull the trigger?
I gotta know who's still on the board, but unless we want JPJ [sic] for ourselves, I'd probably take that offer. You could either package the two twos to move up to get a slider or take two guys early and then go bonkers packaging picks to wiggle around in the 3rd and 4th.
(03-07-2024, 10:15 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]Let's do a sample:
Philly wants to replace Kelce, has fallen in love with JPJ (thanks Mikey). They will give you their lower 2nd rounder to move up.
Philly gets #17.
Jax gets #22 and #53. Philly's not telling you who they are picking, but you've figured it out.
Do you pull the trigger?
Yep I do. At 22 you're looking at one of:
Mitchell, Arnold, Mims, Barton, Frazier, BTJr., Franklin...there's lot of possibilities there depending on how they fall
Then you add 53 and it gets good because you can find someone at 48 like:
Jaden Hicks, Kris Jenkins, Ruke, Kneeland, Khyree Jackson, or maybe Keon Coleman if he falls that far. Plus you get a shot at my personal "must have" in Christian Haynes around this spot with the 53 still in play as well.
Adding Thomas, jr, Kris Jenkins, and Christian Haynes to this roster has way more value to me than JPJ and one of those other two.
Too early to discuss this. We need to see what high priced free agents they bring in, and then we will see where our remaining holes are, and then we will see which players fit in those holes potentially and if those players are fits at 17 or not.
(03-08-2024, 12:35 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Too early to discuss this. We need to see what high priced free agents they bring in, and then we will see where our remaining holes are, and then we will see which players fit in those holes potentially and if those players are fits at 17 or not.
I disagree. This draft class is absolutely loaded, and we'll be able to have at least 2 players contribute immediately no matter how free agency falls. I think it's interesting to discuss passing on a possible special player to get an extra pick in the 2nd round and still pick up a starter.
The issue I see is that no one is going to offer a fair value trade for #17. Eagles seemed like an easy one to discuss, but they're probably too smart for that.
(03-08-2024, 01:33 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-08-2024, 12:35 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Too early to discuss this. We need to see what high priced free agents they bring in, and then we will see where our remaining holes are, and then we will see which players fit in those holes potentially and if those players are fits at 17 or not.
I disagree. This draft class is absolutely loaded, and we'll be able to have at least 2 players contribute immediately no matter how free agency falls. I think it's interesting to discuss passing on a possible special player to get an extra pick in the 2nd round and still pick up a starter.
The issue I see is that no one is going to offer a fair value trade for #17. Eagles seemed like an easy one to discuss, but they're probably too smart for that.
The Eagles drafted Kelces replacement 2 years ago