Quote:He is the only one who passes the eye test IMO, because he has legitimate experience and isn't bat guano crazy. But he is a moderate, so the party will view him as a fringe candidate. Not extreme enough.
Kasich is bat guano crazy to believe he has a snowball's chance at the nomination, but that's his story on why he hasn't dropped out yet. In fairness, I guess that makes him either crazy or a liar.
Being a "moderate," i.e. a team player who will bend to the will of the lobbyists and mainstream media, is a plus with the party establishment. Almost all of his campaign funds have come from establishment types. He has less grassroots financial support than Trump, Cruz, ... or even Walker who dropped out ages ago.
Nominating someone at the convention who hasn't spent a dime campaigning is the equivalent of buying drinks for a girl all night and letting some other guy swoop in at 1:59AM and taking her home.
When people mention Mitt as the candidate, my skin crawls. Ryan would have been an interesting candidate had he been it from the beginning.
it's their party and they'll cry if they want to
Quote:The smart move is to tab the guy who was pulling in 1% of the party vote because he can beat Hillary or Bernie?
Rand Paul isn't conservative enough to win the nomination but he's moderate enougb to win the general election. His anti-war stance makes it near impossible for him to outright win a Republican primary, to many war Hawks in the party.
Quote:Rand Paul isn't conservative enough to win the nomination but he's moderate enougb to win the general election. His anti-war stance makes it near impossible for him to outright win a Republican primary, to many war Hawks in the party.
I love the enthusiasm for the candidate you have backed consistently from day 1, but you have about the same odds of winning a general election as he does.
Quote:I love the enthusiasm for the candidate you have backed consistently from day 1, but you have about the same odds of winning a general election as he does.
Dream crusher
Quote:Dream crusher
Well, it is becoming quite obvious that the USA needs to split up. We just have too many people on the extremes to have enough in common to stay together.
Quote:Well, it is becoming quite obvious that the USA needs to split up. We just have too many people on the extremes to have enough in common to stay together.
"I still love you, California. I'm just not
in love with you anymore."
I think if everyone turned off partisan tv and radio we'd find we have much more in common with each other than we think.
Quote:I see two realistic scenarios:
1: Trump wins the popular vote, also gets the nomination in which case the actual race might be a close one.
2: Trump wins the popular vote, but doesn't get the nomination in which case the GOP loses all credibility and the election is a walkover for the Democrats.
The thing is, Trump isn't even winning the popular vote within the republican party right now. If (and when) it does go to a brokered convention, all bets are off.
Quote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/t...delegates/
I believe there are actually 899 delegates or there in abouts.
Trump needs 55% with the higher concentration of winner take all and winner take most states in this leg of the primary season trump has a better than even money chance of hitting 1237 outright.
I don't know where they are getting their figure. I'm tracking it
here at RealClearPolitics. Add up the remaining delegates, and that's where I got my numbers. I suspect maybe they are counting the "hidden delegates" such as the delegates in Colorado.
One interesting thing that I saw today is
Trump being a sore loser. Again, he didn't win the popular vote and it looks like the Cruz campaign has done a better job there. I suspect that there are many other states that are similar.
See. Thats cruzs path. I cant knock him for it.
Quote:The thing is, Trump isn't even winning the popular vote within the republican party right now. If (and when) it does go to a brokered convention, all bets are off.
I don't know where they are getting their figure. I'm tracking it here at RealClearPolitics. Add up the remaining delegates, and that's where I got my numbers. I suspect maybe they are counting the "hidden delegates" such as the delegates in Colorado.
One interesting thing that I saw today is Trump being a sore loser. Again, he didn't win the popular vote and it looks like the Cruz campaign has done a better job there. I suspect that there are many other states that are similar.
From the first line of the chart in your link:
2472 (total) - 739 (Trump) - 465 (Cruz) - 166 (Rubio) - 143 (Kasich) = 959 remaining.
Quote:Question: If Rubio and/or Kasich drops out, where do those 307 delegates go? Do they shift to whatever candidate endorsed by Rubio or Kasich, or do they become at-large delegates able to vote for whoever is still in the race?
They become at large when the canidates drop out. Whoever has the most delegates will more than likely become the nominee. Its probably gonna be Trump
Quote:I think if everyone turned off partisan tv and radio we'd find we have much more in common with each other than we think.
I do find it quite funny that so many of the supposed issues really arent important to most people at all. The majority of people dont want to be the worlds police and spend half our budget on defense and yet most of the establishment players on both sides are completly for that.
I am not a Bernie supporter but check out this voting card of his versus Clinton. <a class="bbc_url" href='https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/6f/6e/01/6f6e015d0e350843f34ab7ede887f365.jpg'>https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/6f/6e/01/6f6e015d0e350843f34ab7ede887f365.jpg</a>
Based on her voting you would think shes a neocon. And ironically several of the 'important to progressives' issues like staying out of conflicts and ending nafta are positions that are essentially very similar to Trump. I bet NAFTA is a lot more important to most people than policing the middle east and then 'accepting' all the refugees from conflicts we basically caused.
Quote:From the first line of the chart in your link:
2472 (total) - 739 (Trump) - 465 (Cruz) - 166 (Rubio) - 143 (Kasich) = 959 remaining.
Hmm... interesting. I just clicked the link and it shows the following (the differences are in bold).
(1,237 Needed to Win) - 2,472 (total) -
736 (Trump) -
463 (Cruz) -
171 (Rubio) - 143 (Kasich) - that also equals 959. How Trump lost delegates (3) and how Cruz lost delegates (2) and how Rubio gained delegates (5) is a mystery to me.
The other thing not factored in is the delegates held by other candidates out of the race. Though it's still not enough to get to 959, I just don't understand the math here. Those delegates are not still available as far as I know. You also have the delegates that are uncommitted (Colorado) but that's only 37 more.
If you add up the number of remaining delegates from states yet to hold their primaries (536), the number of remaining delegates is different. The bottom line is, next Tuesday will be an important primary. If Cruz somehow pulls off a win, then it's going to mean a certain brokered convention.
Kasich who has almost non delegates is saying there will be an open convention where he will get nomination... This is coming from a guy who has almost no delegates. Then he talks about the polls of him vs Hillary.
What a joke. Is this about an election or media driven polls? Sorry American people, you thought this was an election? HAHA, silly people.
Couldn't be the guy winning most of the states right? We have lightweights in here like jagibelieve- total lightweight by the way- who seem to be in denial. Trump just keeps winning, and winning and winning- that's what Trump does, he wins- and these losers have to keep finding new ways to spin it instead of facing the inevitable. You can pray for an open convention or you can do the right thing; jump on the Trump train baby! And believe me we will build a wall, and MEXICO will pay for it. No brakes on this train, believe me! CHOO CHOO!
#TRUMP2016
Quote:Kasich who has almost non delegates is saying there will be an open convention where he will get nomination... This is coming from a guy who has almost no delegates. Then he talks about the polls of him vs Hillary.
What a joke. Is this about an election or media driven polls? Sorry American people, you thought this was an election? HAHA, silly people.
Primaries have never been straight forward elections. Are you just now learning this? I
Quote:Kasich who has almost non delegates is saying there will be an open convention where he will get nomination... This is coming from a guy who has almost no delegates. Then he talks about the polls of him vs Hillary.
What a joke. Is this about an election or media driven polls? Sorry American people, you thought this was an election? HAHA, silly people.
I don't know why you call them "media driven polls." The pollsters poll people, and it turns out, Kasich has by far the best chance of winning a general election, and Trump has the worst chance of winning a general election.