Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Wow. There it is. 

Quote:Hes not playing "like" a top ten QB. He IS a top ten QB: 

 

Quote:His turnovers aren't a problem at all. They are lower than Marino and Farves career turnovers percentage wise.

The defense was always the problem.

I would take Blake in a league redraft over at least 25 of the other starting QBs in this league right now if not more. That being said, you're not being honest with yourself by looking at statistics only. Not all interceptions are created equal. Some are harmless (i.e. Bombs that are intercepted that equal a punt), some are bad and some are really bad/devastating (i.e. Throwing pick 6's or INTs deep in your own territory). I was too young to watch marino's early years, but what I do remember later in his career is he didn't make the devastating mistakes that Blake has made too often through his career so far. Comparing interception percentages without using the eye test is at best naive and at worst dishonest. Go look up percentage chance of winning when you give up a defensive TD without getting one back, it's not good. (Blake is responsible for several this year). Also, Blake is tied for the league worst for INTs inside your own 40 with Peyton Manning with 9 (meaning the other team is essentially in scoring position if the INT didn't result in a pick 6 which 3 of the 9 of Blake's did).


Pro football reference wouldn't let me go back further than '94, but using your two examples of Marino and Favre I found the following info: Marino threw a total of 9 INTs inside his own 40 in 4 seasons from 94 thru 97. He threw 7 in his final season in '99. '98 was reporting no one in the league threw an INT inside their own 40 so I'm assuming something was wrong with the site regarding that season.


Favre threw 9 or more INTs inside his own 40 four separate times from '94 thru his final season in 2010 (excluding '98). In '99 he threw 10 inside his 40 and the packers won 8 games. In '05 he threw 13 inside his 40 and the packers won 4 games. In '08 he threw 10 inside his 40 and the Jets won 9 games and finally in 2010 he threw 9 inside his own 40 and the Vikings won 6 games.


Blake had 9 last year and he has 9 this year with three games to go.


Does this stat by itself prove anything? No, but there does appear to be a correlation.


You can want Gus gone, that's ok. But you can't keep holding up Blake as God and Gus as the bumbling idiot "backed up" by your narrow grasp of statistics. Your QB putting your defense in bad spots matters. Hopefully today was the beginning of Blake throwing less INTs and especially back breaking INTs. It's amazing how everything can appear wonderful and rosey, even a bad defense like ours, when you get up big on a team like we did today. And actually the defense (Branch specifically) changed the whole complexion of this game with the sack fumble.

From my observation, there are very few Bortles haters here.  Most know he has potential and is getting better.

Quote:I would take Blake in a league redraft over at least 25 of the other starting QBs in this league right now if not more. That being said, you're not being honest with yourself by looking at statistics only. Not all interceptions are created equal. Some are harmless (i.e. Bombs that are intercepted that equal a punt), some are bad and some are really bad/devastating (i.e. Throwing pick 6's or INTs deep in your own territory). I was too young to watch marino's early years, but what I do remember later in his career is he didn't make the devastating mistakes that Blake has made too often through his career so far. Comparing interception percentages without using the eye test is at best naive and at worst dishonest. Go look up percentage chance of winning when you give up a defensive TD without getting one back, it's not good. (Blake is responsible for several this year). Also, Blake is tied for the league worst for INTs inside your own 40 with Peyton Manning with 9 (meaning the other team is essentially in scoring position if the INT didn't result in a pick 6 which 3 of the 9 of Blake's did).


Pro football reference wouldn't let me go back further than '94, but using your two examples of Marino and Favre I found the following info: Marino threw a total of 9 INTs inside his own 40 in 4 seasons from 94 thru 97. He threw 7 in his final season in '99. '98 was reporting no one in the league threw an INT inside their own 40 so I'm assuming something was wrong with the site regarding that season.


Favre threw 9 or more INTs inside his own 40 four separate times from '94 thru his final season in 2010 (excluding '98). In '99 he threw 10 inside his 40 and the packers won 8 games. In '05 he threw 13 inside his 40 and the packers won 4 games. In '08 he threw 10 inside his 40 and the Jets won 9 games and finally in 2010 he threw 9 inside his own 40 and the Vikings won 6 games.


Blake had 9 last year and he has 9 this year with three games to go.


Does this stat by itself prove anything? No, but there does appear to be a correlation.


You can want Gus gone, that's ok. But you can't keep holding up Blake as God and Gus as the bumbling idiot "backed up" by your narrow grasp of statistics. Your QB putting your defense in bad spots matters. Hopefully today was the beginning of Blake throwing less INTs and especially back breaking INTs. It's amazing how everything can appear wonderful and rosey, even a bad defense like ours, when you get up big on a team like we did today. And actually the defense (Branch specifically) changed the whole complexion of this game with the sack fumble.

Yawn.....Bortles this year has a Better INT % at AGE 23 than Farve and Marino did for their CAREERS. Let that sink in.....he's made less mistakes this year than 2 hall of famers have for their careers based on the stat that NFL scouts use.....INT %.

I just saw that the 40 yr old had a better QBR than Bortles. That is all I need to know about that stat.


40 yr old was terrible yesterday.


Not to mention in the first half I think the o line forgot that they actually have to block in pass pro.

Quote:Evans is much better. Will have a better career. ARob is a stud but Mike Evans is a monster if they get a QB who's consistent. Glennon was more consistent than Jameis

It's funny you criticizing people 'for not knowing football'. You've got this love affair with Bortles because you supposedly 'know him'. Well woop-de-doo. Caldwell assembled this OFFENSIVE UNIT and if you pulled your head out of your tookus long enough you could see it's more than just Bortles.


What an annoying bonehead.

Quote:It's funny you criticizing people 'for not knowing football'. You've got this love affair with Bortles because you supposedly 'know him'. Well woop-de-doo. Caldwell assembled this OFFENSIVE UNIT and if you pulled your head out of your tookus long enough you could see it's more than just Bortles.


What an annoying bonehead.

 

It's kind of cool though.  For the longest it was just people with blind hate for certain players.  His infatuation with Bortles is something I haven't seen in awhile.

Quote:It's kind of cool though. For the longest it was just people with blind hate for certain players. His infatuation with Bortles is something I haven't seen in awhile.

I'm fully convinced OP is just a troll, fully convinced. And, I'm pretty sure that he may not even watch the games but just look at final scores and box stats. It sure seems that way. When you try to discuss certain plays that actually happened in the games, it's like talking to a wall. He doesn't seem to know what you're discussing with him.


But, I agree with you. At least he's trolling in an uber-positive way about a Jags player, instead of being another ultra-negative troll adding to list of thousands of those. It is refreshing. Just don't try to talk reason and logic with him, you'll pull your hair out, lol!

Hold on cowboy.......don't pop the bubbly just yet over BB. Yeah, he had a pretty decent game. Would have loved to see him NOT lose those fumble(s) but mistakes are part of the game. His intereceptions (or lack thereof) is the stat I love to see at the end of his games. There still have been way too many games like those. If he finishes fairly "mistake free" then he can be properly evaluated on a scale of 1 to 10. Right now, he had a good game so it's only natural to speak of him is a good light.

Quote:Hold on cowboy.......don't pop the bubbly just yet over BB. Yeah, he had a pretty decent game. Would have loved to see him NOT lose those fumble(s) but mistakes are part of the game. His intereceptions (or lack thereof) is the stat I love to see at the end of his games. There still have been way too many games like those. If he finishes fairly "mistake free" then he can be properly evaluated on a scale of 1 to 10. Right now, he had a good game so it's only natural to speak of him is a good light.

 

You have no clue about INT's.....his numbers are lower than the greats and most certainly lower than the greats at age 23......

 

Bortles INT % rate this season at AGE 23 is 2.6%
 
 
Farve CAREER rate is 3.3%
Marino CAREER rate is 3.0%
Aikman CAREER rate is 3.0%
Brees CAREER rate is 2.6%
Peyton Manning CAREER rate is 2.7%
Elway CAREER rate is 3.1%

Quote:Yawn.....Bortles this year has a Better INT % at AGE 23 than Farve and Marino did for their CAREERS. Let that sink in.....he's made less mistakes this year than 2 hall of famers have for their careers based on the stat that NFL scouts use.....INT %.

 

When you can't argue the point, just yawn baby!  You clearly didn't read my post or just decided to ignore the stat presented that doesn't agree with your preconceived notion.  When your focus is on proving your theory right rather than just being right, this is what you get.  Answer this without a yawn...  Were Marino and Favre playing in an environment that was more favorable, less favorable or about the same with regards to passing the football?

 

And where are you pulling your numbers from by the way?  Profootballreference.com has Marino's career INT percentage at 3.0%, Bortles at 3.1% and Favre at 3.3%.  According to them, Bortles career INT% isn't better than Marino's.

 

Just for fun...  Brady's career INT % is 1.9, Brees' is 2.6, Roethlisberger's is 2.7, Peyton's is 2.7, Rodgers' is 1.6 and Luck's is 2.6.  What does this prove?  Absolutely nothing except that you're cherry picking stats to try to prove you are right rather than just figuring out what the truth is.  Just stop now while you're behind.

Quote: 

You have no clue about INT's.....his numbers are lower than the greats and most certainly lower than the greats at age 23......

 

<div>Bortles INT % rate this season at AGE 23 is 2.6%
 
 
Farve CAREER rate is 3.3%
Marino CAREER rate is 3.0%
Aikman CAREER rate is 3.0%
Brees CAREER rate is 2.6%
Peyton Manning CAREER rate is 2.7%
Elway CAREER rate is 3.1%
 

</div>

 

Oh, so you you're taking 13 games and comparing it to a careers worth of data?  Come on now, lets come back to reality.  Are corners allowed to play now like they did in the 80's and 90's?  Tell the truth.

 

Quite frankly a lot of QBs currently playing have a better INT percentage than Marino, who is regarded as the best or one of the best ever.  Does that dispel the notion that Marino was one of the best ever for you?  Does it mean that we have 5 to 10 QBs playing right now that are better than Marino?  You can't have it both ways.

Quote: 

You have no clue about INT's.....his numbers are lower than the greats and most certainly lower than the greats at age 23......

 

<div>Bortles INT % rate this season at AGE 23 is 2.6%
 
 
Farve CAREER rate is 3.3%
Marino CAREER rate is 3.0%
Aikman CAREER rate is 3.0%
Brees CAREER rate is 2.6%
Peyton Manning CAREER rate is 2.7%
Elway CAREER rate is 3.1%
 

</div>

Based on your "lengthy" dialogue with others, it seems as if you have entirely too much time on your hands and could accurately be described as a "homer". That translates into a fan that probably beleives his team (and its players) can do no wrong. For that reason alone, no point in coming back with a comment. That said, his INT have been especially noticeable because they always seem to come at the very worst time. Is he the worst QB in the league. Not by any means. He is however the starting QB on a losing record team. It is for this reason to rate him not much more than an average QB at this juncture in his career. I'm sure this will offend you as well.

Quote:Oh, so you you're taking 13 games and comparing it to a careers worth of data?  Come on now, lets come back to reality.  Are corners allowed to play now like they did in the 80's and 90's?  Tell the truth.

 

In regards to the one chuck rule-yes.

 

The one chuck rule (informally known as the Mel Blount rule) was instituted in 1978.  It prohibited contact with receivers beyond 5 yards.  Before this rule, DBs could bump receivers throughout the pass route.  While there have been periods of more stringent enforcement-most notably after the Colts whined about the Pats stifling them in the playoffs, that has been the rule since 1978, and all CBs have played under those rules since 1978.

 

The BIG difference between now and then are the rules protecting the "defenseless receivers" and blows to the head, which have only been implemented over the past 2-3 years.  Yes that has made passing easier, but then again, there are plenty of QBs who haven't thrown for 30+ TDs under these new rules.

 

Give Bortles his due.

Quote:When you can't argue the point, just yawn baby!  You clearly didn't read my post or just decided to ignore the stat presented that doesn't agree with your preconceived notion.  When your focus is on proving your theory right rather than just being right, this is what you get.  Answer this without a yawn...  Were Marino and Favre playing in an environment that was more favorable, less favorable or about the same with regards to passing the football?

 

And where are you pulling your numbers from by the way?  Profootballreference.com has Marino's career INT percentage at 3.0%, Bortles at 3.1% and Favre at 3.3%.  According to them, Bortles career INT% isn't better than Marino's.

 

Just for fun...  Brady's career INT % is 1.9, Brees' is 2.6, Roethlisberger's is 2.7, Peyton's is 2.7, Rodgers' is 1.6 and Luck's is 2.6.  What does this prove?  Absolutely nothing except that you're cherry picking stats to try to prove you are right rather than just figuring out what the truth is.  Just stop now while you're behind.

Clearly you can't read. I said at AGE 23. That means this year. Bortles has a 2.6% INT rate. I don't think you get it. Blake is gonna get BETTER not worse as he has the past 5 years.

Quote:Based on your "lengthy" dialogue with others, it seems as if you have entirely too much time on your hands and could accurately be described as a "homer". That translates into a fan that probably beleives his team (and its players) can do no wrong. For that reason alone, no point in coming back with a comment. That said, his INT have been especially noticeable because they always seem to come at the very worst time. Is he the worst QB in the league. Not by any means. He is however the starting QB on a losing record team. It is for this reason to rate him not much more than an average QB at this juncture in his career. I'm sure this will offend you as well.

His INT rate isn't noticeable at all. Maybe because Jags fans are used to game managers like Garrard and Brunell and not true gunslingers. Favre, Marino, and Peyton are 1-2-3 on the ALL TIME PICK 6 lists......you think their fans are babbling about "they always come at the wrong times."


No they aren't. It's noticeable because the Jags have a defense that couldn't hold the Titans UNDER 40 points. The Titans are getting the #1 pick in the draft. That's how bad our D is.....Bortles has to be PERECT to win ball games

Quote:The dude is 3rd in the league in TD passes.... That insane considering where this team was last year.

Yup, there's only 3 QBs that are in the 30 TD passes club right now. Brady, Palmer and Bortles. Just let that sink in for a minute. Pretty good company I'd say.  :woot:

Quote:I would take Blake in a league redraft over at least 25 of the other starting QBs in this league right now if not more. That being said, you're not being honest with yourself by looking at statistics only. Not all interceptions are created equal. Some are harmless (i.e. Bombs that are intercepted that equal a punt), some are bad and some are really bad/devastating (i.e. Throwing pick 6's or INTs deep in your own territory). I was too young to watch marino's early years, but what I do remember later in his career is he didn't make the devastating mistakes that Blake has made too often through his career so far. Comparing interception percentages without using the eye test is at best naive and at worst dishonest. Go look up percentage chance of winning when you give up a defensive TD without getting one back, it's not good. (Blake is responsible for several this year). Also, Blake is tied for the league worst for INTs inside your own 40 with Peyton Manning with 9 (meaning the other team is essentially in scoring position if the INT didn't result in a pick 6 which 3 of the 9 of Blake's did).

Pro football reference wouldn't let me go back further than '94, but using your two examples of Marino and Favre I found the following info: Marino threw a total of 9 INTs inside his own 40 in 4 seasons from 94 thru 97. He threw 7 in his final season in '99. .

You clearly don't know what you're talking about. Marino led the NFL in INTs in 1986 and 1989 with 22 and 23 INTs. His mistakes were double Blake's as a youngster.


QBs improve with INT rate as time goes by but in Marino's last game, he threw a pick 6 to the Jags in the 62-7 butt kicking.


Marino was 3rd all time in pick 6's but I've never heard dolphins fans crying "wahh his INTs always come at the wrong time"

People act like there are QBs that don't make mistakes.....


It happens. I'm under the distinct impression there are professionals on the other side of the ball, who are some of the best athletes on the planet.


I'd like to see these qb's who are so "mistake free."

Quote:In regards to the one chuck rule-yes.

 

The one chuck rule (informally known as the Mel Blount rule) was instituted in 1978.  It prohibited contact with receivers beyond 5 yards.  Before this rule, DBs could bump receivers throughout the pass route.  While there have been periods of more stringent enforcement-most notably after the Colts whined about the Pats stifling them in the playoffs, that has been the rule since 1978, and all CBs have played under those rules since 1978.

 

The BIG difference between now and then are the rules protecting the "defenseless receivers" and blows to the head, which have only been implemented over the past 2-3 years.  Yes that has made passing easier, but then again, there are plenty of QBs who haven't thrown for 30+ TDs under these new rules.

 

Give Bortles his due.

I'm fine with where Bortles is this season. My expectation is the devastating mistakes he has made too frequently through his career so far will become less frequent as he continues to progress. I don't know any Jags fans that aren't excited about the good he's done this year or the expectations for his future. Spacecoastjag has a history of trying to minimize Blake's mistakes to the point that he presumes that they haven't contributed to several of our losses this year, which they clearly have. Also the term "Bortles Hater" among Jags fans is basically a strawman. I'm not avoiding giving Bortles his due. Like I said, there's only a handful of QBs I'd take over him right now if I were building a franchise.


There have been more rules changes than you suggest, however. The league has become hyper sensitive to any contact on the QB for fear of having their faces of the franchise on IR and not on the field. Also, in conjunction with what you mentioned above regarding defenseless receiver rules, enforcement of contact rules across the middle of the field has changed. Receivers routinely go across the middle now with great success. Back in the day, a receiver would more often get rerouted by the defender or lit up. Defenders are having to think instead of just react. Follow the money. The league doesn't want it's stars on IR and it doesn't want to continue getting sued by former players over concussions. It's a significantly different environment to be passing the ball in in my opinion.


I'm not here to really argue any of that though. It got brought up because spacecoastjag ridiculously wants to hold up INT percentages of Bortles to the greats of a different era as proof of something. As someone pointed out, Blake's INT percentage is ranked 19th for this season and as I pointed out, he's a league worst at throwing INTs inside his own 40 which essentially is putting points on the board for your opponent. I did an examination of defensive scoring's effect on chance of winning in a thread a year or so back. I'll have to dig it up. In short, when you give up a defensive or special teams TD and don't get one back from your D or special teams, you have a very low chance of winning the game. In other words, if your QB is throwing pick 6's or INTs that start the opponent in field goal range, he's killing your chance of winning that game. No single stat can tell the whole story, but some carry more weight than others.