This is not a Justin Blackmon thread, but I wanted to point out some stats that might surprise you about Allen Hurns.
In Blackmons rookie year he caught 64 balls, Hurns caught 13 less passes with 51.
Blackmon had 865 yards, Hurns had 188 less yards with 677.
They both average 13 yards per catch.
Hurns had 6 TDs and Blackmon had 5.
Everybody is saying Robinson is going to be our go to WR, but I disagree. Hurns will be our number 1 receiver and that includes Julius Thomas.
Here is some more interesting stats...
Hurns caught 11 passes that went for more than 20 yards. Blackmon only caught 9.
Hurns caught 4 passes that went for more than 40 yards, Blackmon only had 2.
Hope you guys enjoyed that stats.
Blackmon was drafted 5th overall, Hurns was undrafted.
Hurns also benefited from a depleted WR core, Knowing the system front and back, No respect from opposing teams' DC's and DBs thus open lanes, and once some of those evaporated, He became invisible as the season wore on.
With a new system, I doubt he matches his rookie year. He is talented enough to deserve a roster spot though. A good #4 option that can be relied on to not screw up off the field and work hard. Hes exactly what we need in a backup WR.
He'll be a role player throughout his career. He reminds me a little bit of Keenan McCardell. Not going to burn you on every play, but he can slip in behind you if you're not careful. He's probably the third receiver this year, maybe fourth if Rashad Greene really comes on fast.
His numbers were on par with Justin Blackmon's rookie season, if that is being a role player, then I would take them stats from an undrafted player every season.
Quote:His numbers were on par with Justin Blackmon's rookie season, if that is being a role player, then I would take them stats from an undrafted player every season.
Hurns had a good rookie season, but he flashed and then would disappear too much. A #1 WR doesn't.
His numbers show he is our #1.
The eye test shows Robinson is the #1.
I'll take the guy who was consistent every game. I'll take the guy who was on pace for 80 catches and 900 yards. The guy who was the #1 WR last season and the guy who will be the #1 WR this season.
Didn't some people say "no one has ever claimed Hurns is better than Robinson"....
Hurns can't catch while Blackmon... Whoops ruined the parade
Looking at raw stats like that is going to be misleading... he had a very good rookie year, but acting like it's going to be an indicator of stardom is probably misguided. In reality he got off to a hot start in his first few weeks, then faded down the stretch, and was passed on the depth chart by Marqise Lee.
First 4 games: 12 catches, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 21.2 YPC (3 - 64 - 0.75 per game)
Last 12 games: 39 catches, 423 yards, 3 TDs, 10.8 YPC (3 - 35 - 0.25 per game)
Last 7 games*: 22 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD, 9.6 YPC (3 - 30 - 0.14 per game)
*Yeah this is purely an arbitrary endpoint after a 100 yard game, but being ineffective for the last 7 games of the season is fairly significant.
I don't much care for PFF's WR stats but for those who do, he was -9.8 overall. In the first 4 weeks he was +0.1, so that means over the last 12 weeks he was -9.9.
Football Outsiders ranks him 75/87 and 74/87 in DVOA and DYAR respectively.
Marqise Lee had more snaps than Allen Hurns in each of the last 3 games, with 61 - 52 - 54 (167) compared to Hurns' 54 - 37 - 32 (123).
All of this combined with his limited pedigree (UDFA), limited athleticism (4.55 40, 31" vert, 10" broad, 4.5 shuttle, 7.23 3-cone), and propensity for drops would suggest to me his ceiling is limited.
Since he lost his starting job at the end of last year, and now with the return of Allen Robinson and the additions of Julius Thomas and Rashad Greene (Shorts leaving helps) I think expectations for Hurns' production should be tempered. I think it's assumed that the Jaguars' base offense will be 2 TE (Thomas/Lewis, obviously) and 2 WR (I would suggest Robinson and Lee are the frontrunners). I would expect Hurns to mostly compete with Rashad Greene for snaps in 3 WR formations.
(Comparing Hurns to Robinson statistically and athletically is not going to end well for Hurns. It would be a stomp).
Edit: I used 'and' twice in one sentence, must commit seppuku.
Stats can be misleading but I do agree with Fanatic24. He may not be #1 WR but he is not far behind. Hurns can get open, he can catch the ball in traffic and makes defenders miss after catching the ball.
The first few games, opposing defense didn't pay much attention due to his draft status but teams learned quickly and put more DB on him hence the drop in production.
The Jags got quite a few first year wonders. I just hope Hurns isn't one of them.
I think he will have a better season than last year with a healthy Robinson and our new TE Julius Thomas.
Yeldon will open up the play action.
We dont have a true #1 receiver but Hurns is not far behind an elite WR like Blackmon according to the numbers. He even has better numbers in some categories.
He was more explosive 20 yardd or more down field than any WR we've had since Jimmy Smith. He had 11 catches in that department.
Quote:I think he will have a better season than last year with a healthy Robinson and our new TE Julius Thomas.
Yeldon will open up the play action.
We dont have a true #1 receiver but Hurns is not far behind an elite WR like Blackmon according to the numbers. He even has better numbers in some categories.
He was more explosive 20 yardd or more down field than any WR we've had since Jimmy Smith. He had 11 catches in that department.
You're missing the point.
In Hurn's case, the full season numbers lie. Or at least don't tell the whole truth.
Hurns made 2-3 really good plays. But the majority of his production was from broken coverage.
Quote:Hurns made 2-3 really good plays. But the majority of his production was from broken coverage.
And there's nothing wrong with that. He's a very solid guy to have out there, but to say he's better than a healthy ARob is just wrong. And then to say he's Blackmon caliber talent is laughable
People label him as "undrafted", but seem to fail to remember this guy set the UM single season reception yards record and was named the team MVP. A large part of the reason for going undrafted was his inability to stay healthy until his senior year. Do I think he's a 'number 1' NFL WR? ....no. But, he has the ability to be a very productive and solid WR in a rotation ...if he can continue to stay healthy.
Hurns has a mean double move.
Hurns wishes he played like Blackmon did when he was on the field.
Hurns demonstrated playmaking ability when NO ONE else on the team was doing so. He was the single most exciting player last year.
I think he can be deadly if the OC has the skill to design plays to get him open. And with Julius, that should be easy.
It is the OC (and the playcalls) that I will have my eyes on. Hurns can catch, A-Rob can catch, Julius has the best hands of all. I'm still not sure if Lee can catch or not. Skillful playcalls will make the difference. We'll know by game 3.