Not really that fast.

I heard a news chick say that "Nassau County deaths DOUBLED yesterday!!!!"

Yeah, went from 1 all the way to 2.  :Eyeroll:

You don't consider exponential growth to be fast or you don't believe the number of deaths being reported?

We have 33,500 deaths globally give or take. Do you think that's exponential growth in 4 months worth of spread? Do you think Nassau County will really report exponential growth in deaths next week? 2 deaths today up to 1,024 in 10 days? Italy had their worst day with 765 deaths in a single day but, as bad as it's been over there their report of daily new cases is declining. I really don't think it's likely that we'll hit exponential growth in the death rate, and it's really not likely to happen anywhere at that pace. People are going to get sick and people are going to die. Yes, it sad, but it's really not different than any other day and the scale of daily COVID deaths isn't likely to reach our daily kill leaders like Cancer and Heart Disease. It probably won't even make it to Suicide's ~7,200 a day.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

You don't consider exponential growth to be fast or you don't believe the number of deaths being reported?

We have 33,500 deaths globally give or take. Do you think that's exponential growth in 4 months worth of spread? Do you think Nassau County will really report exponential growth in deaths next week? 2 deaths today up to 1,024 in 10 days? Italy had their worst day with 765 deaths in a single day but, as bad as it's been over there their report of daily new cases is declining. I really don't think it's likely that we'll hit exponential growth in the death rate, and it's really not likely to happen anywhere at that pace. People are going to get sick and people are going to die. Yes, it sad, but it's really not different than any other day and the scale of daily COVID deaths isn't likely to reach our daily kill leaders like Cancer and Heart Disease. It probably won't even make it to Suicide's ~7,200 a day.

I was speaking nationally, not globally. China and Italy among others, have flattened their curve. The United States has not.

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We have 33,500 deaths globally give or take. Do you think that's exponential growth in 4 months worth of spread? Do you think Nassau County will really report exponential growth in deaths next week? 2 deaths today up to 1,024 in 10 days? Italy had their worst day with 765 deaths in a single day but, as bad as it's been over there their report of daily new cases is declining. I really don't think it's likely that we'll hit exponential growth in the death rate, and it's really not likely to happen anywhere at that pace. People are going to get sick and people are going to die. Yes, it sad, but it's really not different than any other day and the scale of daily COVID deaths isn't likely to reach our daily kill leaders like Cancer and Heart Disease. It probably won't even make it to Suicide's ~7,200 a day.

I was speaking nationally, not globally. China and Italy among others, have flattened their curve. The United States has not.

China is 3 months ahead of us (and most likely lying their [BLEEP] off), Italy several weeks. Nationally we have 1/5 of the deaths that Italy has on 5 times the population, but again we're a few weeks behind them in full blown outbreak. In any case, an exponential increase in the death rate is not happening now (based on daily death counts through 3/28) and it's unlikely to occur with our current daily reporting rates. We're simply on the upslope of the linear curve as cases continue to emerge nationally.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

We have 33,500 deaths globally give or take. Do you think that's exponential growth in 4 months worth of spread? Do you think Nassau County will really report exponential growth in deaths next week? 2 deaths today up to 1,024 in 10 days? Italy had their worst day with 765 deaths in a single day but, as bad as it's been over there their report of daily new cases is declining. I really don't think it's likely that we'll hit exponential growth in the death rate, and it's really not likely to happen anywhere at that pace. People are going to get sick and people are going to die. Yes, it sad, but it's really not different than any other day and the scale of daily COVID deaths isn't likely to reach our daily kill leaders like Cancer and Heart Disease. It probably won't even make it to Suicide's ~7,200 a day.

I was speaking nationally, not globally. China and Italy among others, have flattened their curve. The United States has not.

It took a lot longer for our outbreak to be seeded and it will take a little while longer for our curve to flatten out.

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https://globalcooperative.wordpress.com/...-of-death/

Corona virus deaths vs various other causes of death.

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I was speaking nationally, not globally. China and Italy among others, have flattened their curve. The United States has not.

It took a lot longer for our outbreak to be seeded and it will take a little while longer for our curve to flatten out.

Yeah, and?

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I was speaking nationally, not globally. China and Italy among others, have flattened their curve. The United States has not.

China is 3 months ahead of us (and most likely lying their [BLEEP] off), Italy several weeks. Nationally we have 1/5 of the deaths that Italy has on 5 times the population, but again we're a few weeks behind them in full blown outbreak. In any case, an exponential increase in the death rate is not happening now (based on daily death counts through 3/28) and it's unlikely to occur with our current daily reporting rates. We're simply on the upslope of the linear curve as cases continue to emerge nationally.

Are you explaining my clarification back to me? Lol. 

Where are you getting your daily death counts? I'm looking at two different websites that show exponential growth.

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Should have did this 20 years ago. Keep them northerners out of here.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020...s-traffic/

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This is ALL based on the Imperial College model. Dr. Birx, the president, they're all using the 2.2 million #.

When the antibody tests show actual viral penetration in the population a lot of people are going to have a lot of questions to answer.

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I'm less optimistic than you that it spread rapidly in Florida. It's been abnormally hot, and a significant amount of testing has come back negative. Either it went through super early, undetected, or we haven't been hard hit yet.

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The curve of deaths is going to be reduced in amplitude and phase shifted forwards in time.
Peak deaths should be (hopefully) <1% of peak caseload, and should happen about 1 or 2 weeks later.
You'll see the case curve flatten before the death curve does.

The case curve is dependent on cases tested. I'm not really sure what your point here is. 

That you can track a completely unreliable statistic faster than a more reliable option by a week?

Its just a matter of perspective. I agree that deaths are a more reliable statistic, but they're not a perfect stat.  A person could die, never having been tested.  The death stat doesn't tell you about the underlying or complicating conditions either.
I prefer to pay attention to the test stats because they're ahead.  I'm also tracking the total number of tests, to see if we really are doing more and more they way we need to be doing.  And I'm keeping an eye on the percent of tests that come back negative.  You know they aren't testing everyone who might have it, but it would be nice to see, of all the people who are really sick with breathing problems, fewer and fewer of those are sick from this virus specifically.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

The case curve is dependent on cases tested. I'm not really sure what your point here is. 

That you can track a completely unreliable statistic faster than a more reliable option by a week?

Its just a matter of perspective. I agree that deaths are a more reliable statistic, but they're not a perfect stat.  A person could die, never having been tested.  The death stat doesn't tell you about the underlying or complicating conditions either.
I prefer to pay attention to the test stats because they're ahead.  I'm also tracking the total number of tests, to see if we really are doing more and more they way we need to be doing.  And I'm keeping an eye on the percent of tests that come back negative.  You know they aren't testing everyone who might have it, but it would be nice to see, of all the people who are really sick with breathing problems, fewer and fewer of those are sick from this virus specifically.

So basically what I said, got it.

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Its just a matter of perspective. I agree that deaths are a more reliable statistic, but they're not a perfect stat.  A person could die, never having been tested.  The death stat doesn't tell you about the underlying or complicating conditions either.
I prefer to pay attention to the test stats because they're ahead.  I'm also tracking the total number of tests, to see if we really are doing more and more they way we need to be doing.  And I'm keeping an eye on the percent of tests that come back negative.  You know they aren't testing everyone who might have it, but it would be nice to see, of all the people who are really sick with breathing problems, fewer and fewer of those are sick from this virus specifically.

So basically what I said, got it.

Sure.  What you said, plus other stuff that I think is just as important.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

What a loser

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/mobile/ar...0d8f358551

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So basically what I said, got it.

Sure.  What you said, plus other stuff that I think is just as important.

I'm sure there is a great way you could've responded to me and imparted that - and then there's the way you choose to do it.

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Should have did this 20 years ago. Keep them northerners out of here.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020...s-traffic/

you all tried to shut the south down to northerners 160 years ago and failed miserably.  That said, now that I'm a southerner (I guess), I'm all for torture, imprisonment, or perhaps whatever means it takes to quarantine them or send them back

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Considering the amount of cases in high profile individuals, recently Boselli, Kevin Durant, Boris Johnson, even several weeks ago when all the madness was just beginning you had the Mayor of Miami, Tom Hanks and a few others test positive and this was when we had just a few thousand confirmed here in the U.S. Back then this lead me to believe that the actual number of cases is probably at least ten times the confirmed cases. If this were true I would consider this to be very good news.

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Italy and France have only been including deaths at hospitals in their Covid-19 numbers. Not home deaths or nursing homes, so their numbers are a lot worse

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https://globalcooperative.wordpress.com/...-of-death/

Corona virus deaths vs various other causes of death.

Go back ten years and you can prove COVID-19 is just fake news.

I wonder if we can also build a chart to show no correlation between gun ownership and firearm deaths.

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Considering the amount of cases in high profile individuals, recently Boselli, Kevin Durant, Boris Johnson, even several weeks ago when all the madness was just beginning you had the Mayor of Miami, Tom Hanks and a few others test positive and this was when we had just a few thousand confirmed here in the U.S. Back then this lead me to believe that the actual number of cases is probably at least ten times the confirmed cases. If this were true I would consider this to be very good news.

That would mean we caused a depression for nothing.

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