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COVID-19

#1

It's probably time for a thread about the coronavirus, as it begins to go global, with non-China cases on a dangerous trajectory:

[Image: KNaTYG6.png]

Here's the Johns Hopkins website which tracks total cases, deaths and recoveries:  
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...7b48e9ecf6
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#2

[Image: tenor.gif]
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#3
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2020, 10:47 PM by mikesez.)

It's very hard to travel to China and Hong Kong now, even if you want to. My company has a job in HK now that should be wrapped by now and probably won't wrap until after the virus passes. And that's the best case scenario. Obviously the virus could shut stuff down in more countries. Very scary. Of course we would all rather lose some money than have us or our friends lose their lives, but all impacts suck.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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#4

Secondary effects could be just as deadly as the virus. There are 3,000,000 factories in China. With the just-in-time supply chain, there's really no stockpile of goods to act as a buffer if those factories are shut down. Now imagine the virus has come to your area and you want to stock up on 2 months of supplies so you can self-quarantine....but the store shelves are empty. I believe Samsung has already shut down some of its factories in South Korea. Japan will soon have to decide whether to cancel the Summer Olympics.

I think I'll go to Costco tomorrow.
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#5

The first thing to suffer will be the tourism industry. Chinese tourists are getting very rare in places that depend on them. Last time I was in Europe I saw Asian tourists everywhere, probably mostly from China.

I'm seeing ads for discounted river cruises as well as ocean cruises. That tells me they are having trouble selling cruises. People don't want to get on a plane now if they don't have to, and they definitely are afraid if they get on a cruise ship they'll wind up like that cruise ship that got quarantined.

VRBO and Airbnb are showing discounts everywhere. I don't know if this is normal or not, but it could be a reaction to reduced demand.

And of course there is the aforementioned effect on Chinese factories that supply the world with all sorts of stuff.

Right now, with the record levels of debt in the global economy, a few bankruptcies could have a cascading effect.



One of the great challenges in life is knowing enough to think you're right but not enough to know you're wrong.

Neil DeGrasse Tyson
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#6
(This post was last modified: 02-24-2020, 08:56 AM by Byron LeftTown.)

Pre-market is down over 700 points. Gold is up $33.
Silver might be the best investment now, not least because of its unique antiviral properties.
I use a nano-silver solution (10 PPM) whenever I feel a cold coming on (usually after a sneeze). 1 tsp held under the tongue for 30 seconds, then swallowed. It has kept me flu-free for 5 or 6 years.
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#7

(02-24-2020, 08:55 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: Pre-market is down over 700 points.  Gold is up $33.  
Silver might be the best investment now, not least because of its unique antiviral properties.  
I use a nano-silver solution (10 PPM) whenever I feel a cold coming on (usually after a sneeze).  1 tsp held under the tongue for 30 seconds, then swallowed.  It has kept me flu-free for 5 or 6 years.

Do you say a chant beforehand?
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#8

Ouch...
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#9

Somebody here (me) called the Caronavirus market impact a month ago.
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#10

(02-24-2020, 10:53 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Somebody here (me) called the Caronavirus market impact a month ago.

Stocks are on sale this week, get yours before they're all gone!
"It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office." - H. L. Mencken

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#11

(02-24-2020, 11:03 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 10:53 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Somebody here (me) called the Caronavirus market impact a month ago.

Stocks are on sale this week, get yours before they're all gone!

Just placed my order on Amazon Prime -- delivery tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind a few big hits followed by a slow upward trend.  Daily gains gives me more gratification than a big pop in the market.
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#12

(02-24-2020, 11:15 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 11:03 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: Stocks are on sale this week, get yours before they're all gone!

Just placed my order on Amazon Prime -- delivery tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind a few big hits followed by a slow upward trend.  Daily gains gives me more gratification than a big pop in the market.

Yep, give me a stable 10 year period of steady growth and I'll take it in a heartbeat.
"It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office." - H. L. Mencken

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#13

(02-24-2020, 08:55 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: Pre-market is down over 700 points.  Gold is up $33.  
Silver might be the best investment now, not least because of its unique antiviral properties.  
I use a nano-silver solution (10 PPM) whenever I feel a cold coming on (usually after a sneeze).  1 tsp held under the tongue for 30 seconds, then swallowed.  It has kept me flu-free for 5 or 6 years.

Silver will kill bacteria, but viruses, eh not so much. I don’t think it’s heavy metal poisoning that’s keeping you flu free. I would call that luck.


Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 
Quote:Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.
 
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#14

(02-24-2020, 04:58 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 08:55 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: Pre-market is down over 700 points.  Gold is up $33.  
Silver might be the best investment now, not least because of its unique antiviral properties.  
I use a nano-silver solution (10 PPM) whenever I feel a cold coming on (usually after a sneeze).  1 tsp held under the tongue for 30 seconds, then swallowed.  It has kept me flu-free for 5 or 6 years.

Silver will kill bacteria, but viruses, eh not so much. I don’t think it’s heavy metal poisoning that’s keeping you flu free. I would call that luck.

I wash my hands several times a day and avoid touching my face, especially during flu season. I can't remember the last time I had the flu.

One of my coworkers drinks some strange concoction every morning. He showed me the recipe and it contains a few ground up stone fruit seeds. 

I asked him, "Don't these contain traces of cyanide?"
"Yeah, but that's to kill the cancer we all have inside of us."


While it's true that we all carry the genetic potential for cancer which has a multitude of catalysts as a trigger, ingesting low grades of poison doesn't "kill it". He's a firm believer in his concoction and I felt no desire to engage him on it.  Enjoy your snake oil.
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#15

This virus is having a major impact on world markets.  Several factories are shutting down due to lack of parts/materials that normally come out of China.  Retailers are probably going to take a hit as well.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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#16

I don’t know if it’s factor or not but my business is waaaaayyy off compared to the last three years.
[Image: 5_RdfH.gif]
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#17

(02-24-2020, 08:26 PM)EricC85 Wrote: I don’t know if it’s factor or not but my business is waaaaayyy off compared to the last three years.

My wife's is down for sure, she can see the financials. 
I can't see the financials at mine but i get the sense they are down, based on the quality and quantity of work coming in.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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#18

My business is up over last year.
"It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office." - H. L. Mencken

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#19

Just remember, there are people among us, people you probably interact with daily who are rooting for this virus to wipe out hundreds of thousands all in the hope it impacts Trunps reelection.
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#20
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020, 08:13 AM by The Real Marty.)

There are record levels of debt in the world economy right now.   Interest rates are at record lows, in fact they are negative in some countries.   The US government budget deficits are nearing record levels.   All this tells me that if there is a downturn, it could be especially severe, since we have nowhere to go on interest rates, and we can't increase the deficit to goose the economy.   So we have no weapons to fight a downturn.

The downturn could be caused by the Coronavirus making people want to stop traveling, stop riding on planes, stop going to gatherings.  Then a wave of bankruptcies in the travel industry leads to other bankruptcies as one unpaid debt leads to another and another.  If you can't collect from people who owe you, then you can't pay people you owe.  

An economic crash would cause the federal deficit to skyrocket as tax receipts plummet.  The most palatable way out of the resulting financial crisis would probably be inflation to devalue all the debts out there.  

Whoever gets elected President in 2020 will be holding the bag and getting the blame.



One of the great challenges in life is knowing enough to think you're right but not enough to know you're wrong.

Neil DeGrasse Tyson
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