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Stock Market Under Trump


(04-18-2020, 07:45 PM)pirkster Wrote:
(04-08-2020, 04:25 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: I somewhat agree with you, though I do believe that investors are anticipating bad earnings numbers, bad unemployment numbers, etc.  While I like seeing the market put up numbers like it has so far this week and while I wish for more of a "V shaped" recovery I do think that it's going to be more of a "U shape".

Having said that I don't think that the market overall will test the lows, and the gains over the last few days might be short lived.

For the most part I personally have been sitting on the sidelines with the exception of small portions in a couple of stocks and ETF's that I like.  So far they are doing well, but it's a very small portion of my portfolio.  I'm still basically 90% cash and 10% in equities so even the small gains that I am making right now doesn't really reflect on my YTD returns number.

It's just my opinion but I think if someone is looking at the long term many stocks, funds, ETF's, etc. are still basically "on sale" right now.  Imagine what the price is going to be a year from now vs. right now.

Investing is emotional as much as it is numbers.  You have to do what's comfortable for you.  The unknown can bring anxiety, as we've seen during this shut in.  If anxiety of a downturn causes you to sell (and always, ALWAYS remember that you don't lose or gain a single penny until you hit the SELL button) then you're better off waiting for smoother sailing.

As I stated earlier in the thread, there are funds that can make you money even in down times.  Timing markets rarely works.  No one knows for certain: in too soon and you may have to ride out the bottom if we're not there yet.  In to late after the upturn and you've lost a portion of the gains.

Even so, if you're investing over the long haul now isn't a bad time to up your contribution to investments in historically strong EFTs.  If you are in good funds you will have plenty of time for the market to return unless you're close to retirement age now.

Since it's been dissolved due to market volatility and replaced with a new fund, I can share what was my "bell cow": GASX.  I share this to show I'm not talking out of my behind like so many here do about politics.  My words are true, though I don't want anyone to take this as investment advice.  It's just sharing my story.

The combination of the China virus and Russia getting into an oil production war caused this ETF to spike.  I was fortunate enough to have my "play" money in it as it's a fund that was taking frequent 10-20% swings (like the ebb and tide of the sea) where I would get in, grab 5-20%, and get out.  This time, I rode it because I was hearing on social media from contacts about how the oil industry was shedding jobs and no one was talking about it.  This, is how I fared during the economic downturn with that "play" money:

[Image: Screenshot_20200414-123719.jpg]

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I sold well before where it peaked (I think around 500.00?) so even though I made a killing, I still left some gains on the table.  You have to have nerves of steel and ice in your veins for this type of trading.

I recently converted about 25% of a handful of positive or near positive funds to cash.  I plan on looking for another bell cow EFT where I can grab a fast 10-20% to help climb out of this faster as we emerge from this.

If someone is looking for something relatively "safe," an EFT I really like is FTEC.  Technology stocks are flexing their muscle as they have weathered this well and are positioned for a strong future as businesses seek new ways of doing business.  Buffett bought a 2-3% stake in Kroger prior to the China virus.  They have accelerated innovation of their supply chain and pickup infrastructure.  I do not recommend investing in single stocks, I was just sharing that as another positive story while much of the market has taken a beating.

Again, always remember that you don't lose or gain a single penny until you press the sale button.  Buy low, sell high.  Try to hold until your underperformers come around.

Very nice job.  I have posted several times that I rarely buy individual stocks, but I did get some Microsoft and Boeing a couple of weeks ago.  Both are faring well for me at the moment.  

I try to focus more on sectors such as Tech, and I also have some IXN which is very similar to FTEC.  One thing that I did do was add to some shares of ITA (U.S. Aerospace & Defense sector) that I held onto during the down swing.  I'm nearing getting "out of the red" with this one (last close $157.57, my cost basis $165.65).

Over the long term I like those sectors.  Keep in mind, I am not "all in" by any means.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(04-18-2020, 05:35 PM)pirkster Wrote: All this economic damage done by the China virus shutdown, and still better than 3 years ago.  That's telling.

Well golly gee wiz Opie, all it took was an additional $10 Trillion Dollars into the National Deficit.  That's telling.


[Image: giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47a01293d1a5bbdc2814...=giphy.gif]
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(This post was last modified: 04-19-2020, 11:02 PM by pirkster.)

(04-19-2020, 08:41 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(04-18-2020, 05:35 PM)pirkster Wrote: All this economic damage done by the China virus shutdown, and still better than 3 years ago.  That's telling.

Well golly gee wiz Opie, all it took was an additional $10 Trillion Dollars into the National Deficit.  That's telling.


[Image: giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47a01293d1a5bbdc2814...=giphy.gif]

Now that reality is knocking on your door, I sincerely hope you can realize the folly of your politics and knowledge:
1. Yes, deficits do matter.
2. China owes the world, and the world should make them pay.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(04-18-2020, 05:35 PM)pirkster Wrote: All this economic damage done by the China virus shutdown, and still better than 3 years ago.  That's telling.

The ponzi scheme is just being propped up, we're no where close to the bottom
Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.
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Crude oil took a huge dump today.  As of right now it's down around $2.45 per barrel.  Not good for the industry.  That's almost an 85% drop in one day.  On the one hand it will be good for consumers with gas prices falling, but on the other hand it's going to cause more job loss and bankruptcies.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(04-20-2020, 01:32 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Crude oil took a huge dump today.  As of right now it's down around $2.45 per barrel.  Not good for the industry.  That's almost an 85% drop in one day.  On the one hand it will be good for consumers with gas prices falling, but on the other hand it's going to cause more job loss and bankruptcies.

There will never be a better time for our government to implement a carbon tax.  Costs the economy nothing now.  Will ensure people invest in more energy efficient technology, and painlessly. Plus if it actually generates significant revenue, you can cut other taxes.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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(04-20-2020, 02:34 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 01:32 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Crude oil took a huge dump today.  As of right now it's down around $2.45 per barrel.  Not good for the industry.  That's almost an 85% drop in one day.  On the one hand it will be good for consumers with gas prices falling, but on the other hand it's going to cause more job loss and bankruptcies.

There will never be a better time for our government to implement a carbon tax.  Costs the economy nothing now.  Will ensure people invest in more energy efficient technology, and painlessly. Plus if it actually generates significant revenue, you can cut other taxes.

That's cute. You think implementing a new tax will cut other taxes in the future. I have some ocean front property in Arizona I will sell you for a good price.
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(This post was last modified: 04-20-2020, 03:20 PM by Byron LeftTown.)

Price of oil is going negative because there's no place to store it.

2020 Summer Special
Gasoline $0.01/gallon
Each fill-up includes:
A free oil change
4 new tires
new hoses and belts
anything else made from oil
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(04-20-2020, 02:34 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 01:32 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Crude oil took a huge dump today.  As of right now it's down around $2.45 per barrel.  Not good for the industry.  That's almost an 85% drop in one day.  On the one hand it will be good for consumers with gas prices falling, but on the other hand it's going to cause more job loss and bankruptcies.

There will never be a better time for our government to implement a carbon tax.  Costs the economy nothing now.  Will ensure people invest in more energy efficient technology, and painlessly. Plus if it actually generates significant revenue, you can cut other taxes.

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Your liberal "green new deal" pipe dream will never happen.  The worst thing to do is add even more burden in the form of a tax to any industry, especially when said tax is for artificial purposes.

As of right now crude oil is at -$35.20.  That's not a typo.  This is pretty much going to be the demise of several drillers, refineries and JOBS.  To say that it will "cost the economy nothing now" is pretty ignorant.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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I want to go fill up my tank and demand payment
I'll play you in ping pong. 
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(04-20-2020, 03:18 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: Price of oil is going negative because there's no place to store it.

2020 Summer Special
Gasoline $0.01/gallon
Each fill-up includes:
A free oil change
4 new tires
new hoses and belts
anything else made from oil



This Smart car will be able to drive from Jacksonville to San Diego (3,000 miles) for a total of $0.44, assuming 68 mpg.

Sweet !!!
[Image: Cdh9JcHBK9eL3L9G0a7_HK3fE8aeoxopO_xG2ks_...66JXl982gW]
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(04-20-2020, 03:18 PM)jagibelieve Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 02:34 PM)mikesez Wrote: There will never be a better time for our government to implement a carbon tax.  Costs the economy nothing now.  Will ensure people invest in more energy efficient technology, and painlessly. Plus if it actually generates significant revenue, you can cut other taxes.

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Your liberal "green new deal" pipe dream will never happen.  The worst thing to do is add even more burden in the form of a tax to any industry, especially when said tax is for artificial purposes.

As of right now crude oil is at -$35.20.  That's not a typo.  This is pretty much going to be the demise of several drillers, refineries and JOBS.  To say that it will "cost the economy nothing now" is pretty ignorant.

You have no idea what *you're* talking about. The Green New Deal, like Democratic party proposals that came before it, does not include a carbon tax. 

All consumers of energy just got their costs massively cut.  They are currently in a position to absorb a cost increase in that area.  Obviously.  I mean, like anybody, we'd rather pocket the windfall savings and not give it to the government, but in this situation we can afford to let it go today.  That was less true yesterday, and might be less true tomorrow.  Now is the best possible time.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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(04-20-2020, 04:39 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 03:18 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: You have no idea what you are talking about.  Your liberal "green new deal" pipe dream will never happen.  The worst thing to do is add even more burden in the form of a tax to any industry, especially when said tax is for artificial purposes.

As of right now crude oil is at -$35.20.  That's not a typo.  This is pretty much going to be the demise of several drillers, refineries and JOBS.  To say that it will "cost the economy nothing now" is pretty ignorant.

You have no idea what *you're* talking about. The Green New Deal, like Democratic party proposals that came before it, does not include a carbon tax. 

All consumers of energy just got their costs massively cut.  They are currently in a position to absorb a cost increase in that area.  Obviously.  I mean, like anybody, we'd rather pocket the windfall savings and not give it to the government, but in this situation we can afford to let it go today.  That was less true yesterday, and might be less true tomorrow.  Now is the best possible time.

Raise taxes in a downturn, very Republican of you there skippy.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(This post was last modified: 04-20-2020, 08:11 PM by mikesez.)

(04-20-2020, 04:53 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 04:39 PM)mikesez Wrote: You have no idea what *you're* talking about. The Green New Deal, like Democratic party proposals that came before it, does not include a carbon tax. 

All consumers of energy just got their costs massively cut.  They are currently in a position to absorb a cost increase in that area.  Obviously.  I mean, like anybody, we'd rather pocket the windfall savings and not give it to the government, but in this situation we can afford to let it go today.  That was less true yesterday, and might be less true tomorrow.  Now is the best possible time.

Raise taxes in a downturn, very Republican of you there skippy.

Well, after the 45th president cut taxes in an upturn even though revenues were still less than expenditures, that supposed orthodoxy no longer means much.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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(04-20-2020, 02:34 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 01:32 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Crude oil took a huge dump today.  As of right now it's down around $2.45 per barrel.  Not good for the industry.  That's almost an 85% drop in one day.  On the one hand it will be good for consumers with gas prices falling, but on the other hand it's going to cause more job loss and bankruptcies.

There will never be a better time for our government to implement a carbon tax.  Costs the economy nothing now.  Will ensure people invest in more energy efficient technology, and painlessly. Plus if it actually generates significant revenue, you can cut other taxes.

Your IQ is almost as "high" as AOC's.  It's understandable since she is probably your favorite republican socialist politician.  Trying to implement a tax on an imaginary problem is the dumbest thing to do.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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I would like to see a couple more days like today and end the week higher than last week.  We still have a ways to go on the DOW to get back above 24,000.  Oil is still around $14.00 or so and there is news that it could get back to around the $30 mark by June which would be good.  I would like to see oil get up above $50 which probably won't happen until the end of the year.

I believe that when the country "opens up" demand will go up.  If I was a short term trader I would look at oil very carefully.  I personally invest for the long term and don't like the uncertainty of the energy sector, though it probably could do well.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(04-20-2020, 04:39 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 03:18 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: You have no idea what you are talking about.  Your liberal "green new deal" pipe dream will never happen.  The worst thing to do is add even more burden in the form of a tax to any industry, especially when said tax is for artificial purposes.

As of right now crude oil is at -$35.20.  That's not a typo.  This is pretty much going to be the demise of several drillers, refineries and JOBS.  To say that it will "cost the economy nothing now" is pretty ignorant.

You have no idea what *you're* talking about. The Green New Deal, like Democratic party proposals that came before it, does not include a carbon tax. 

All consumers of energy just got their costs massively cut.  They are currently in a position to absorb a cost increase in that area.  Obviously.  I mean, like anybody, we'd rather pocket the windfall savings and not give it to the government, but in this situation we can afford to let it go today.  That was less true yesterday, and might be less true tomorrow.  Now is the best possible time.


Liberalism 101 class. First lesson: When you have no argument, look for grammatical error and call them out on it.
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(04-22-2020, 04:18 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 04:39 PM)mikesez Wrote: You have no idea what *you're* talking about. The Green New Deal, like Democratic party proposals that came before it, does not include a carbon tax. 

All consumers of energy just got their costs massively cut.  They are currently in a position to absorb a cost increase in that area.  Obviously.  I mean, like anybody, we'd rather pocket the windfall savings and not give it to the government, but in this situation we can afford to let it go today.  That was less true yesterday, and might be less true tomorrow.  Now is the best possible time.


Liberalism 101 class. First lesson: When you have no argument, look for grammatical error and call them out on it.

Grammatical? The difference between "carbon tax" and "cap and trade" is just grammar?
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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(This post was last modified: 04-25-2020, 09:30 AM by The Real Marty.)

Who was it that wanted to buy Carnival stock?  They are about to get sued out of existence.  Which should put the market value of their stock at about...  lemmee see...  zero.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-...ronavirus/
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