To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

It depends because if they end up with 2 Pro Bowl players that will be a major success. 1 Pro Bowl player would be a success.

If none are Pro Bowl players, 3 have to hit. 2 starters and 1 key role player.

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

If you get a Tawmy in the sixth, just one.

I also think "hit" is a very subjective term - if we get a kid in the sixth who ends up a fantastic gunner/punt returner, is that enough to call them a hit, or do you expect them also to be a shutdown nickel?

If an RB in the seventh is little more than a cowcatcher plowing defenders out of the way for Bigsby, is that a win?

I guess it's like art - you know a successful darft when you see it.

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

It depends because if they end up with 2 Pro Bowl players that will be a major success. 1 Pro Bowl player would be a success.

If none are Pro Bowl players, 3 have to hit. 2 starters and 1 key role player.

Probe owl is a popularity contest. I wouldn't use that to evaluate anything beyond someone's social media prowess or home market size.

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

In the 2000 draft, the Patriots had every pick bust except for one 6th rounder.   But I think we would all agree, that was a massively successful draft.  

So, I don't think you can put a number on it.

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

In the 2000 draft, the Patriots had every pick bust except for one 6th rounder.   But I think we would all agree, that was a massively successful draft.  

So, I don't think you can put a number on it.

Agreed. This class will have to be quantified in quality over time. Like most classes. I still think eight guys make this final roster from this class. Mostly because we're shoring up the back end of the roster along the depth chart because we know these contracts that were signed a year or two ago are not going to work out in the near future if we're going to have an elite QB tying up a big chunk of the cap percentage wise.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

In the 2000 draft, the Patriots had every pick bust except for one 6th rounder.   But I think we would all agree, that was a massively successful draft.  

So, I don't think you can put a number on it.

Agreed. This class will have to be quantified in quality over time. Like most classes. I still think eight guys make this final roster from this class. Mostly because we're shoring up the back end of the roster along the depth chart because we know these contracts that were signed a year or two ago are not going to work out in the near future if we're going to have an elite QB tying up a big chunk of the cap percentage wise.

This. We’re building depth with young talent because Trevor is about to make a withdrawal that will truly need an armored truck.

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To call it a successful draft, how many picks have to hit?

In the 2000 draft, the Patriots had every pick bust except for one 6th rounder.   But I think we would all agree, that was a massively successful draft.  

So, I don't think you can put a number on it.

I hate that example because it is such an extreme outlier that will likely never happen again, but the point remains.

Can't judge draft classes for a few years, and the impact of the players who stick can outweigh the quantity.

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You didn't list Antonio Johnson.  Are you not a fan or was that an oversight?

I previously predicted 9+ and I still like it.  I saw the following as very likely to make the team:

Harrison
Strange
Bigsby
Miller
Lacy
Abdullah
Johnson
Washington

I still do.  That's 8.  The remaining 5 are iffy, but we only need 1 of the 5 to reach the 9+ threshold.  Right now, I would say Hallet probably has the best chance.  Reports have been that Vohasek has made some big hits, so I like his chances better now than before.  Braswell missing time has hurt him, so he needs to finish strong if he wants a roster spot.  I feel like Hodges and Parish will probably be near misses.  I see them as likely to be on our practice squad.

Forgot Johnson.
Thanks for the catch.

https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/16870...81920?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/16870...81920?s=20

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I read an interesting study of NFL success by round. They defined 'success' very conservatively, being a player that started an NFL game in at least 4 different seasons in their career. The study found 71% of players drafted in round 1 met the defined starter criteria or 'success' definition. In round 2 49%, round 3 29%, round 4 20%, round 5 14%, round 6 9%, and round 7 6%. Based on these historical percentages by round, for Jags to have an average NFL draft for their 13 picks, they should have 2.6 of these players become at least 4 year starters in their career.

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Brian Sexton said this morning that he thinks this is the best draft in Jaguars history. He named nine players that he thinks are either going to become starters or key contributors by 2024.

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Brian Sexton said this morning that he thinks this is the best draft in Jaguars history.  He named nine players that he thinks are either going to become starters or key contributors by 2024.

Pretty bold statement on his part about it being the best in Jaguars history. Won't argue the nine players though. I felt like that was the number all along just from first reactions back in April from what I saw. Only two games left for some of these guys to keep shining for a depth spot. Right now though, just from last week, it looks like they were right on Harrison, Strange, Bigsby and Abdullah. Johnson had a decent amount of tackles made on his end. Miller had a sack. Hodges is probably a good back-up to develop along nice and easy as a guard/swing tackle option. 

Really only leaves two other spots which will boil down to probably Braswell Vs. Hallett and Lacey Vs. Vohasek. I went on record in a few other threads though about the Lacey pick and I won't back off of it now. Especially now. I really, really wish they would have taken Wisconsin's Nick Herbig to go along with Yasir Abdullah.

'Born to be a Steeler': Nick Herbig Dominates in Steelers Debut (steelersnow.com)

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Brian Sexton said this morning that he thinks this is the best draft in Jaguars history.  He named nine players that he thinks are either going to become starters or key contributors by 2024.

Pretty bold statement on his part about it being the best in Jaguars history. Won't argue the nine players though. I felt like that was the number all along just from first reactions back in April from what I saw. Only two games left for some of these guys to keep shining for a depth spot. Right now though, just from last week, it looks like they were right on Harrison, Strange, Bigsby and Abdullah. Johnson had a decent amount of tackles made on his end. Miller had a sack. Hodges is probably a good back-up to develop along nice and easy as a guard/swing tackle option. 

Really only leaves two other spots which will boil down to probably Braswell Vs. Hallett and Lacey Vs. Vohasek. I went on record in a few other threads though about the Lacey pick and I won't back off of it now. Especially now. I really, really wish they would have taken Wisconsin's Nick Herbig to go along with Yasir Abdullah.

'Born to be a Steeler': Nick Herbig Dominates in Steelers Debut (steelersnow.com)

/nods knowingly

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With the large number of picks in the 4-7th rounds, we have an inordinate number of longshots on our roster currently.

How many survive come September? 

(PS doesn't count)

I guess 7 of the 13 make the team. Could be less.

Harrison
Strange
Bigsby
Miller
Lacy
Abdullah
Washington
Hallet
Hodges
Vohasek 

These guys have all flashed at some point in camp.
Abdullah seems like he has a steep learning curve compared to the others right now though. 

Hard to imagine all 10 making the 53. 

This is going to get interesting

EDIT- Antonio Johnson should be on that list ^

Welp - we are down to it.

So far - out of all of those late round picks we got stuck with when no trade up partners emerged - the list is getting shorter. 



4th rounder V Miller is done with an achilles injury - unknown if he'll stay on teams IR list to return next year

FB Derek Parish is the first cut reported of our late selections

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I don’t know of Parker Washington is gonna make it.

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Those who voted 9 or more have won the day!

Only three of the 13 were cut, and two of the ten still with the team will begin the year on IR in some capacity.
So 8 drafted rookies will be on the available roster in week one.

What a draft!!

I concede that my harsh evaluation of the later picks may have been too harsh.
Hope we see a couple of those guys develop into something.

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LOL
It is officially "fall in love with an undrafted receiver" szn

LOL, 

 I guess Baalke and DP are officially in the "fall in love with an undrafted receiver"  camp.  Same undrafted WR I was high on.

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LOL
It is officially "fall in love with an undrafted receiver" szn

LOL, 

 I guess Baalke and DP are officially in the "fall in love with an undrafted receiver"  camp.  Same undrafted WR I was high on.

He's good. I referenced this post a while back in another thread praising Cooks and I predicted him to make the team in the 53 thread. 

I was wrong to make fun of you.
I still enjoyed making fun of you though. 

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Those who voted 9 or more have won the day!

Only three of the 13 were cut, and two of the ten still with the team will begin the year on IR in some capacity.
So 8 drafted rookies will be on the available roster in week one.

What a draft!!

I concede that my harsh evaluation of the later picks may have been too harsh.
Hope we see a couple of those guys develop into something.

I think they definitely aimed to get the roster younger.

Get those guys exposed to the game, gradual development and field time, ready to take the lead when we have to let go of those in front of them to salvage cap.

That many picks certainly afforded us options, we didn't have to feel compelled to keep a guy just because we didn't have anyone worth a darn behind them.

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So is this an accurate list of rookies who made the team?

Tank Bigsby
Parker Washington
Elijah Cooks (UDFA)
Cooper Hodges
Brenton Strange
Tyler Lacy
Yasir Abdullah
Christian Braswell
Antonio Johnson
Anton Harrison
Ventrell Miller (IR)

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LOL, 

 I guess Baalke and DP are officially in the "fall in love with an undrafted receiver"  camp.  Same undrafted WR I was high on.

He's good. I referenced this post a while back in another thread praising Cooks and I predicted him to make the team in the 53 thread. 

I was wrong to make fun of you.
I still enjoyed making fun of you though. 

If that's wrong then I don't wanna be right.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato