When they chose to select a RB in the first round most were dismayed. (now that is putting it as politely as I can)  Somewhere maybe in a secret place are stone tablets with draft rules written on them. I suspect they will not have written on them thou shall not select a RB in the first round.  I am betting ETN would not have been there had they not taken him when they did.  Below is last years rushing leaders that were ahead of ETN

Josh Jacobs - 1st round
Derrick Henry - 2nd round
Nick Chubb - 2nd round
Saquon Barkley - 1st round
Christian McCaffrey - 1st round
Dalvin Cook  - 2nd round
Miles Sanders - 2nd round

He totally wouldn't have been.... that's why the whole shouldn't have in the first round argument is ignorant

---

You do have a point there. The only problem with it is as football is a team sport the lack of success was not the fault of the running back.

The point, as it's been all along, is that Running Backs are a final piece rather than a foundation one. Good teams need a running back, running backs don't make teams good, and good teams can take them anywhere. The ETN pick was bad strategy that we are very lucky worked out.

Well it turns out you were wrong

---

Cool, got it. (I actually agree)  I have 2 points. one, if you want a good RB you will need to take one early. Two, these guys we have had in management have been getting lucky A LOT lately.

Every year a few teams with a good run blocking line have a late round or UDFA come in after injury to the starter and play the same or better. 

Lots of good backs available later in the draft - and this is a smart way to build and stock your RB room while reserving early picks for positions of greater value

Tony Pollard 128th overall  
James Connor 105th overall
Brian Robinson 98th 
Davon Achsen - 84th
Raheem Mostert  UDFA
Pacheco - 251st overall
Karen Williams - 164th overall

I am sure there are many ways to successfully build a good team.  None are inferior to the other if they accomplish the task. Personally I would not swap ETN for any of the backs you mentioned above, nor do I believe behind our line they would do as well as ETN. 

Now, "Positions of Greater Value" quite the term. While the term implies a structure and finality, there is no standardized listing written in stone for that.  I believe that is only an opinion and that opinion quite possibly can change year to year based on the players under contract by the team.  Also, another influencing factor would be the actual players in the draft and players projected to come into the draft in the next few years.  Now for the record when we selected ETN I was not a big fan of the selection.  I do have to admit it has worked out well. 

There seems to be a general disconnect between the fans of teams and those that spend their lives studying the players. drafts and free agents when it comes to value.  Whether our guys have just been lucky, it is too soon to tell.  If it was lucky, then I hope they continue to have that luck....

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

Every year a few teams with a good run blocking line have a late round or UDFA come in after injury to the starter and play the same or better. 

Lots of good backs available later in the draft - and this is a smart way to build and stock your RB room while reserving early picks for positions of greater value

Tony Pollard 128th overall  
James Connor 105th overall
Brian Robinson 98th 
Davon Achsen - 84th
Raheem Mostert  UDFA
Pacheco - 251st overall
Karen Williams - 164th overall

I am sure there are many ways to successfully build a good team.  None are inferior to the other if they accomplish the task. Personally I would not swap ETN for any of the backs you mentioned above, nor do I believe behind our line they would do as well as ETN. 

Now, "Positions of Greater Value" quite the term. While the term implies a structure and finality, there is no standardized listing written in stone for that.  I believe that is only an opinion and that opinion quite possibly can change year to year based on the players under contract by the team.  Also, another influencing factor would be the actual players in the draft and players projected to come into the draft in the next few years.  Now for the record when we selected ETN I was not a big fan of the selection.  I do have to admit it has worked out well. 

There seems to be a general disconnect between the fans of teams and those that spend their lives studying the players. drafts and free agents when it comes to value.  Whether our guys have just been lucky, it is too soon to tell.  If it was lucky, then I hope they continue to have that luck....

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

---

I am sure there are many ways to successfully build a good team.  None are inferior to the other if they accomplish the task. Personally I would not swap ETN for any of the backs you mentioned above, nor do I believe behind our line they would do as well as ETN. 

Now, "Positions of Greater Value" quite the term. While the term implies a structure and finality, there is no standardized listing written in stone for that.  I believe that is only an opinion and that opinion quite possibly can change year to year based on the players under contract by the team.  Also, another influencing factor would be the actual players in the draft and players projected to come into the draft in the next few years.  Now for the record when we selected ETN I was not a big fan of the selection.  I do have to admit it has worked out well. 

There seems to be a general disconnect between the fans of teams and those that spend their lives studying the players. drafts and free agents when it comes to value.  Whether our guys have just been lucky, it is too soon to tell.  If it was lucky, then I hope they continue to have that luck....

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

Thanks for the statistical references. While I am sure the math is correct and it truly shows the tendencies over a number of years . (I will use it this year) One issue I see is doesn't take into account the available position depth of a draft in a given year or the human side of the players fitting the team culture. How could it as those things vary year to year. I would expect a lot of teams have their own graph to begin the process with rather than depending on someone else's.  Isn't that what Tony K is doing?

 I understand the process you would like followed to build a team and that is fine. (I believe the 49ers followed that model but missed on the QB) I also understand you would not have taken the risk on ETN, neither would I, but in this case we were both wrong...lol

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

I think typically speaking a RB in the first round is stupid, but when you get a guy as talented as ETN, or CMC for example, those guys are 100% worth it.

---

I don’t get why anyone would be against this pick 3 years on, who cares what you perceive as value. He is one of 3/4 first rounders that we’ve had actually play to his potential in the last 15 years, should we have picked another d lineman that failed just to fit a narrative of not taking running backs early

---

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

Thanks for the statistical references. While I am sure the math is correct and it truly shows the tendencies over a number of years . (I will use it this year) One issue I see is doesn't take into account the available position depth of a draft in a given year or the human side of the players fitting the team culture. How could it as those things vary year to year. I would expect a lot of teams have their own graph to begin the process with rather than depending on someone else's.  Isn't that what Tony K is doing?

 I understand the process you would like followed to build a team and that is fine. (I believe the 49ers followed that model but missed on the QB) I also understand you would not have taken the risk on ETN, neither would I, but in this case we were both wrong...lol

Exactly, in a perfect world I think most GMs would love to build from the trenches out but the draft doesn't always fall out like that.  You let the draft come to you instead of reaching for these positions that have higher value and taking a lower player on your board to fill a position.  If you stick to your board eventually you will fill needs while taking the best player.

---

I am sure there are many ways to successfully build a good team.  None are inferior to the other if they accomplish the task. Personally I would not swap ETN for any of the backs you mentioned above, nor do I believe behind our line they would do as well as ETN. 

Now, "Positions of Greater Value" quite the term. While the term implies a structure and finality, there is no standardized listing written in stone for that.  I believe that is only an opinion and that opinion quite possibly can change year to year based on the players under contract by the team.  Also, another influencing factor would be the actual players in the draft and players projected to come into the draft in the next few years.  Now for the record when we selected ETN I was not a big fan of the selection.  I do have to admit it has worked out well. 

There seems to be a general disconnect between the fans of teams and those that spend their lives studying the players. drafts and free agents when it comes to value.  Whether our guys have just been lucky, it is too soon to tell.  If it was lucky, then I hope they continue to have that luck....

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

There's the position, then there's the actual player.  What position does he play is one factor, but the other factor is the talent level.  In this case, the talent level trumped the position.  I'm sure you agree with all that.

---

I think typically speaking a RB in the first round is stupid, but when you get a guy as talented as ETN, or CMC for example, those guys are 100% worth it.

CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I think typically speaking a RB in the first round is stupid, but when you get a guy as talented as ETN, or CMC for example, those guys are 100% worth it.

CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

It sure is a lot of "lucky" lately from you lol, everything is lucky lol.  CMC absolutely helped the Panthers and all their wins when he was there and he was their best player.  If they ever had a QB they would of made some noise in the playoffs

---

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

Thanks for the statistical references. While I am sure the math is correct and it truly shows the tendencies over a number of years . (I will use it this year) One issue I see is doesn't take into account the available position depth of a draft in a given year or the human side of the players fitting the team culture. How could it as those things vary year to year. I would expect a lot of teams have their own graph to begin the process with rather than depending on someone else's.  Isn't that what Tony K is doing?

 I understand the process you would like followed to build a team and that is fine. (I believe the 49ers followed that model but missed on the QB) I also understand you would not have taken the risk on ETN, neither would I, but in this case we were both wrong...lol

The Niners keep missing on top flight qbs because Shanahan and his system can get so much out of average talent. Purdy may just be in a rough patch or this may be who he really is. We’ll know after the next several games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Fix the O-Line!

Thanks for the statistical references. While I am sure the math is correct and it truly shows the tendencies over a number of years . (I will use it this year) One issue I see is doesn't take into account the available position depth of a draft in a given year or the human side of the players fitting the team culture. How could it as those things vary year to year. I would expect a lot of teams have their own graph to begin the process with rather than depending on someone else's.  Isn't that what Tony K is doing?

 I understand the process you would like followed to build a team and that is fine. (I believe the 49ers followed that model but missed on the QB) I also understand you would not have taken the risk on ETN, neither would I, but in this case we were both wrong...lol

The Niners keep missing on top flight qbs because Shanahan and his system can get so much out of average talent. Purdy may just be in a rough patch or this may be who he really is. We’ll know after the next several games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder if they now regret forking over Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th RD pick. Not having any viable option is concerning. Especially if their defense continues to backslide in performance. They have not been playing up to the hype as well on their end. They were getting exposed by the Vikings and the Bengals absolutely exposed them yesterday.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

The Niners keep missing on top flight qbs because Shanahan and his system can get so much out of average talent. Purdy may just be in a rough patch or this may be who he really is. We’ll know after the next several games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder if they now regret forking over Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th RD pick. Not having any viable option is concerning. Especially if their defense continues to backslide in performance. They have not been playing up to the hype as well on their end. They were getting exposed by the Vikings and the Bengals absolutely exposed them yesterday.

Yep they are probably regretting that one.

---

I wonder if they now regret forking over Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th RD pick. Not having any viable option is concerning. Especially if their defense continues to backslide in performance. They have not been playing up to the hype as well on their end. They were getting exposed by the Vikings and the Bengals absolutely exposed them yesterday.

Yep they are probably regretting that one.

Not to worry Jerry will sell him back to them, for a price ...

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

I wonder if they now regret forking over Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th RD pick. Not having any viable option is concerning. Especially if their defense continues to backslide in performance. They have not been playing up to the hype as well on their end. They were getting exposed by the Vikings and the Bengals absolutely exposed them yesterday.

Yep they are probably regretting that one.

Maybe, but not nearly as much as they regret drafting Lance in the first place.

---

CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

It sure is a lot of "lucky" lately from you lol, everything is lucky lol.  CMC absolutely helped the Panthers and all their wins when he was there and he was their best player.  If they ever had a QB they would of made some noise in the playoffs

I'm pretty sure your comment is the point NYC is getting at with his drafting position. 

If they had a QB...
If they had edge pressure...
If they had better blocking line...
If they had a RB...
etc

How many times do you think its been said for each position to make the playoffs? I'm guessing the amount of times for a RB is quite a bit less than some of these other positions. Hence the reason they aren't given as much value.

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In Dougie I Trust!

It sure is a lot of "lucky" lately from you lol, everything is lucky lol.  CMC absolutely helped the Panthers and all their wins when he was there and he was their best player.  If they ever had a QB they would of made some noise in the playoffs

I'm pretty sure your comment is the point NYC is getting at with his drafting position. 

If they had a QB...
If they had edge pressure...
If they had better blocking line...
If they had a RB...
etc

How many times do you think its been said for each position to make the playoffs? I'm guessing the amount of times for a RB is quite a bit less than some of these other positions. Hence the reason they aren't given as much value.

I mean just look at the playoff teams from last year.

In the AFC, the only 1st rounder to start in the playoffs was ETN.

In the NFC, it was CMC, Zeke (with Pollard really as the dude) and Saquon (who they likely regret taking).

---

To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

There's the position, then there's the actual player.  What position does he play is one factor, but the other factor is the talent level.  In this case, the talent level trumped the position.  I'm sure you agree with all that.

Sure. 

You've seen me use the terms "gamble, crapshoot, risk, etc" over and over again in these RB value debates. 

They pay an entire scouting dept. and a number of execs big bucks to determine which of those early round RBs are that rare talent that trumps the lopsided positional valuation of selecting a RB early. 

And they still get it wrong half of the time. Because that's the nature of the draft. I don't like rolling the dice like that on backs until other spots I've already outlined are secured. 

The Jaguars literally chose Leonard Fournette over McCaffery. 
 Just because you are bold enough to take a highly touted back early - you aren't guaranteed to totally screw yourself and your franchise. 

I love ETN. So glad he's a Jag. 
But if he'd turned out to be like Najee Harris it would be a real shame to our roster development and that could easily have happened.

---

There's the position, then there's the actual player.  What position does he play is one factor, but the other factor is the talent level.  In this case, the talent level trumped the position.  I'm sure you agree with all that.

Sure. 

You've seen me use the terms "gamble, crapshoot, risk, etc" over and over again in these RB value debates. 

They pay an entire scouting dept. and a number of execs big bucks to determine which of those early round RBs are that rare talent that trumps the lopsided positional valuation of selecting a RB early. 

And they still get it wrong half of the time. Because that's the nature of the draft. I don't like rolling the dice like that on backs until other spots I've already outlined are secured. 

The Jaguars literally chose Leonard Fournette over McCaffery. 
 Just because you are bold enough to take a highly touted back early - you aren't guaranteed to totally screw yourself and your franchise. 

I love ETN. So glad he's a Jag. 
But if he'd turned out to be like Najee Harris it would be a real shame to our roster development and that could easily have happened.

It could just as easily happen with any other position.

---

CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

It sure is a lot of "lucky" lately from you lol, everything is lucky lol.  CMC absolutely helped the Panthers and all their wins when he was there and he was their best player.  If they ever had a QB they would of made some noise in the playoffs

"All their wins"? Yeah, the Carolina Panthers were the offensive juggernaut of the NFL and made opposing D coordinators quake in their khakis. If you can't see that having the absolute best running back in the League did nothing for that terrible franchise then I can't help you. Just look at CMC's stats by year and compare it to their record. The numbers will smack you right in the face; when he was just ok in 2017 they won 11 games, when he was really good the next seasons they were middle of the pack to bad. Without him their 6-10 would'e been 4-12? Get out of here with that garbage. Just accept that running backs are low value players who's contributions are pretty much interchangeable for teams both bad and good, it's clear in the stats and clear in the behavior of good NFL franchises.

And just about everything about ETN for this team is flat out lucky: lucky that we got TLaw, lucky that K Toney wasn't the pick, lucky that ETN's foot injury wasn't career ending, lucky that Urban didn't get the chance to ruin him that season , lucky that Urbz got fired, lucky that our free agent class of skill players turned out so well, lucky that we got Doug. We've had an amazing streak of fortune and it's showing on the field...but luck isn't a long term strategy for success either. I fear that our GM is going to eventually be the impediment that holds us back from being really great, and this string of luck and really good coaching/play will come to an end without achieving the success we could've otherwise enjoyed.

Meanwhile, we're 6-2 and I'd rather savor this moment, so carry on.

---

I'm pretty sure your comment is the point NYC is getting at with his drafting position. 

If they had a QB...
If they had edge pressure...
If they had better blocking line...
If they had a RB...
etc

How many times do you think its been said for each position to make the playoffs? I'm guessing the amount of times for a RB is quite a bit less than some of these other positions. Hence the reason they aren't given as much value.

I mean just look at the playoff teams from last year.

In the AFC, the only 1st rounder to start in the playoffs was ETN.

In the NFC, it was CMC, Zeke (with Pollard really as the dude) and Saquon (who they likely regret taking).

*CMC was on his second team, so that is really a different animal than the other 3 listed.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato