Between the "on paper" stuff and the first preseason games, this is how I see it.

Jaguars - Should have a pretty good defense and an improved offense.  They shouldn't be as "one dimensional" on offense as they have been for the past few seasons with an improved run game.  The big key is going to be reducing the number and frequency of costly turnovers and it starts with the quarterback play of Blake Bortles.

Texans - Have a pretty solid defense, though age might start to be a factor.  They have no clear quarterback and no real strength on offense.

Titans - Have a pretty decent defense and a good run game.  Quarterback is questionable with the big unknown being if he can stay healthy and on the field.  "On paper" they appeared to improve their receiving options.  I would say that this is the "team to beat" for the AFCS Championship.

Colts - Everybody says all of this "Andrew Luck" stuff, and while that is a factor, if they are going to rely on one player to decide their fate, they are already done.  They don't have anything special on defense and their offense is really nothing special either.  I predict that they might surpass the Jaguars as the bottom-dwellers of the division.

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