(11-29-2017, 11:39 AM)Bullseye Wrote: It's been said by many that our fan base got spoiled early in our franchise's existence due to the tremendous level of success this team had during the first five years.  From 1996-1999, the Jaguars made the playoffs, including two conference championship games.  Injuries and the salary cap kicked in and the Jaguars fell from the lofty standards set above to mediocre and losing football.  While disappointing and distasteful, there was still some respectability around the team.  JDR took over and led the team to four straight .500 or better seasons, including two playoff appearances, the last being in 2007.  But in the years that have passed since, the fall from contention was far more precipitous and much longer in duration than any time in Jaguars history.  Mere respectability became an antiquated notion.  The losing became so pervasive and prolific, fans went from anger to numbness, as playoff hopes were gone by October. 

It was then no surprise that Jaguars fans expected, at most, modest improvement from the team this year when Marrone was named head coach.   Immediate, worst to first transformations are not exactly common, and have not been a part of our history.  That is, perhaps, until now.    After eleven games this year, the Jaguars find themselves at 7-4 and tied for first place in the division (actually sit at second due to the week 2 loss vs. Tennessee) and firmly in playoff contention headed into a three game home stretch against two divisional foes they dominated earlier in the year, sandwiched around a Seattle team with a depleted secondary.

Now headed into this year, many would have been thrilled with an improvement from two to three wins a year to seven.  The incremental improvement most expected to see but didn't under Bradley would have been realized.   Yet I don't think it a stretch to say that the entirety of the Jaguars fan base would be disappointed if the Jaguars finished the 2017 season with "only" seven wins.

So in that context, what is the minimum win total the team must meet to avoid 2017 being a disappointment?  For the purposes of this discussion, let's avoid the Super Bowl or bust standard.  We all want to win the big game, but I'm just talking about regular season wins and post season appearance, if possible.

To me, even though finally reaching .500 would be notable when compared to the losing that preceded it, that would be not enough.  I think a ten win season would be the minimum win total to avoid this season being a disappointment.   The remaining five games, including the aforementioned three game home stretch, are all winnable.  I don't think it unreasonable to expect the Jaguars to win at least three of the remaining five.  I think ten wins minimally should be good enough to get us into the post season, especially considering two current contenders for the 6th seed, the Chargers and Ravens, both lost to us head to head.  If we finish with the same record, we will get in before either of them.  The Ravens have one more loss than we have right now, and still have tough games left against Detroit and Pittsburgh.  The Chargers have two more losses than we have, and still have games against Washington and KC.

What are your minimal win expectations?  Why?

I agree; 10-6 is probably the readjusted expectation of the majority of the fan base, based on how the team has done so far and the level of competition in the division.  However, I think we finish 9-7.

Colts - W (Colts play hard, but wont be able to score enough to win)
Seahawks - L  (defense wont stop Wilson enough to win, and offense wont score enough points to keep up)
Texans - W (Savage is worse than Bortles)
49ers - L (Garrafalo scores enough points to win, and our offense sputters)
Titans - L (close, but Bortles chokes with the division title on the line)

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