Let me preface by stating I understand that it's almost impossible for a QB to mess up his own Pro Day. However, the past couple of weeks have seen Haskins, Lock, Murray and, today, Jones, do very well by all accounts in their pro day workouts. It's to the point where all four are now deemed by observers on NFL Network and ESPN to be first round QBs. In fact, some mocks have now three (3) QBs going in the top 10, with Murray going to Arizona, Haskins maybe going to the Giants, and Lock going to Denver, with Jones now viewed as a first round pick, ranging anywhere from Denver, Cincinnati and Miami from 10-12, Washington at 15, or a team like the Chargers at 28. Assuming these talking heads have their fingers on the pulse of league reaction to these workouts, I'm left to wonder what impact this will have on the Jaguars sitting at 7. For those of us looking for early immediate impact starters on the offense, such a development may leave us disappointed, even if it ultimately makes us contenders. for a longer period of time (assuming) we hit on the pick).
If there is a top 5 run on the QBs, with teams trading into the top spots to land the signal callers, obviously it would likely mean one or more of the stud defensive players like Bosa, Allen or Williams will drop to us at 7. While based solely on need, I want an offensive player at 7, if one of those guys fell to us at 7, I would be hard pressed to pass on them. Any of those three guys would immediately upgrade the defensive line. Williams would have us set at DT for years to come (assuming Bryan develops) with Bryan being the power guy and Williams being the quick penetrator. Bosa and Allen would both be worthy successors to Calais Campbell, and, in the short term, would give us a very strong rotation at DE that would be reminiscent of the 2017 rotation of Campbell, Ngakoue, and Fowler. As an added bonus, any of those three guys would come at a significant age and cap hit reduction compared to Campbell and Dareus, which in turn should make it easier to re-sign Ngakoue, Jack, and Ramsey within the next two-three years.
If three QBs are deemed to be top ten picks, would that make the Jaguars more inclined to draft one of them at 7, even though the team just signed Foles? One of my long held philosophies is that if you have a thirty something QB-even a Pro Bowl caliber signal caller-and you have the chance to draft a potential franchise QB, you take the QB. Applying this rule to the Jaguars, the Jaguars should take the QB. Foles is thirty, has made a Pro Bowl and won a Super Bowl MVP. While he is certainly at the far youngest end of the thirty something spectrum, and while I really like him as a QB, his presence on the roster would not definitively permit me to pass on a guy I thought was a franchise QB. Drafting a QB at seven would enable the team to replicate the gradual developments of stud signal callers like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb-something we have never been able to do with any of the first round signal callers we have taken before. Such a strategy would be especially helpful if Haskins is our guy, as he only has a year of college starting experience. As is the case of one of the consensus top three stud DLs falling, you could make the argument successfully drafting a franchise QB 7 would prolong our contention window-though perhaps not immediately. Such a move may not be possible without three or four QBs ascending into potential top ten draft picks.
Assuming trading down were a consideration, it would be a more viable option if Jones were not deemed a first round QB, or there was the perception of a huge gap between the top 3 and Jones. Without Jones as a 1st round QB, teams like Washington, Miami, and Cincinnati would have to trade ahead of Denver (maybe even Detroit) to ensure one of the top 3 guys-assuming they were interested in drafting a long term answer at the position this year. Conversely, these same QB needy teams outside of the top 10 who like Jones (or one of the others if Jones passes one or more of them) may be content to wait for him to fall to them instead of trading up, which would mean the extra picks in maybe the 2nd or 3rd rounds that so many of us on the message board lust after every offseason never materialize. On the flip side, Jones' ascent to a first round passer might have a ripple effect on the Jaguars 2nd round pick, depending upon which team invested a first round pick on Jones. For instance, if the Patriots thought Jones was a worthy successor behind Brady and took him at 32, that means they likely would have passed up a replacement for Gronk (Irv Smith?), which means he could be there for us at 38. Or if he is gone, perhaps a team that took him earlier left a top tier defender on the board for Belichick to re-stock the unit that throttled the Rams.
From the perspective of either forcing a highly rated defender to fall, having what the team feels as a potential franchise signal caller there at seven, or having the ability to possibly trade back and accumulate picks and players, the ascent of Lock and Jones as definite first round signal callers can be a boon to this team's ability to contend, but it may not immediately satisfy the offense thirsty Jaguars fans.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
