(05-10-2019, 09:03 AM)Jags02 Wrote:

(05-10-2019, 04:49 AM)Bullseye Wrote: My thoughts ion this situation...

I hope that as a person, Telvin Smith is okay.  Based upon everything we've publicly  known about Telvin Smith as a Jaguar, he's been a solid citizen for us and a good player.  Hopefully whatever issue(s) has/have turned his world asunder can be overcome by him and make him a better person.  As fans, we all have our wants for the team and our expectations for players on the team, and when someone doesn't meet those expectations, it can be easy for us to get angry at the player.  But as I always say, players are public figures, not public property.  They are more than their jersey number.  They are human beings with human weaknesses and problems.  Sadly, the contracts that so many of us seem to begrudge do not insulate them from those weaknesses or problems.  Whatever it is he's facing, I'm rooting for Telvin Smith the person to beat it, whether he actually plays another down of football for us or not.

While it's possible this is a substance abuse/dependence related issue, part of me thinks this is something else.  Even if his positive marijuana test at the combine back in '14 put him in the NFL's substance abuse program, if substance abuse were the issue, his suspension (assuming he was facing one) would only last 4 games since he hasn't been suspended since then...

• If he's suspended, going on NFI for the year won't help because the suspension would be suspended until he's ready to play. In other words, he'd be sitting out the year with intentions to play in 2020. If a 4-game suspension was handed down, then Telvin would still have to miss the first four games of the 2020 season. So, I don't think it's a suspension.
  

Exactly right.  Once he returned, the suspension would be waiting for him.  Which is another reason I'm not sold this is substance related.  Of course it's possible he may have decided to do this not knowing he couldn't avoid a suspension, but either way I don't think this is substance related.

Quote:...If that were the case, why would he choose to sit out the whole year and lose all of that money and risk his roster spot in the future?

• Keep in mind he's not necessarily walking away from any money unless this results in him being waived. If he's sitting out the year, his base salary is suspended for the year as his yearly base salaries would all move forward a year and he'd automatically be under contract for an additional year. The team is would see the cap relief from his base salary ($9.75 mil) not counting this year as only his signing bonus hit ($2.81 mil) would count.
  

He would be walking away from money this year.  If he decides not to play this year, he'd still have remaining years on his deal, but his salary would be lost for this year.  He couldn't invest the money, draw interest, or spend it like a drunken sailor on a hedonistic binge.  Sitting out a year puts him at risk for his skills to deteriorate some especially without the typical grind that comes with the Pro Football calendar.  What's more, while he likely would have gone into 2020 as the presumed starter under normal circumstances, he won't have that presumption if he sits out the year and returns in 2020.  If the team was right on Williams, Smith would have an uphill battle to even retain his spot on the roster.  He'd be 29, with a year off, potentially deemed unreliable on some level, and expensive.  This strategy is not without financial and career risk to him.

Quote:On the subject of advance notice, even assuming the Jaguars had some suspicions something was wrong before the draft, I don't think they approach the draft any differently.  I have no idea how their board was arranged, but I could not imagine the team taking any LB above Allen (who is listed in part as a LB).  Telvin's absence would not or should not have moved, say Devin Bush, above Allen.  The need at RT plus the apparent value that Taylor represented at 35 precluded a LB being taken there.  Telvin Smith's issues would not have changed those first two picks.  Smith's absence would not mitigate the need at TE either.  While ideally, Smith would have been in communication with the team and given them advance notice something was amiss with him, I can't definitively state that any pick before round five would have been any different.  Perhaps the most that would have changed is the Jaguars don't trade up from 38 to 35 and keep the 4th round pick, but again, given the need at RT and the value, I don't think anything changes.

• It's possible they somehow knew, or knew enough to presume, Telvin might not play. We don't know, for instance, if Bush would have been the pick had Josh Allen not been there, but it was very apparent that Allen was easily the top player on their board.  The Quincy Williams pick possibly speaks volumes seeing as they actually reached for a guy whose skill-set, metrics and game very much resemble Telvin's. It's hard to say that Quincy could just take over for one of the best OLBs and playmakers in the game as a 3rd round reach in the draft, but if what he did in college were to transcend to the NFL, he just might come close enough to make things work. I half suspect that had Telvin showed up to the OTAs, Will Grier would have been our late 3rd round pick.
  

Maybe the Williams pick is a hedge against Telvin being out. But either way, I don't see too much changing based upon how the draft went, If they suspected he would be out for the year for whatever reason, the fact is they didn't address the position (assuming Allen plays as a rush end primarily) until the bototm of round 3.

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