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MalabarJag · 08-13-2019, 12:04 PM

(08-13-2019, 10:49 AM)PF* Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 09:52 AM)MalabarJag Wrote:
#1 #3 True.
#2, I doubt that's the average. Would you bet your mortgage on Lee coming within 70% of that number this year?
#4, The jury has rendered its verdict. He was completely recovered from the ACL by the end of last season.
#5, #6 A player on a franchise year is going to do everything he can to show future employers his value. He would have been crazy to slack off. And he could have changed his mind about his feelings about the Jags during that year.

The real problem is that he could have been franchised for what they paid Lee and Moncrief. Robinson's down year in 2016 was still better than Lee's best. With the injury it would have been a risk to franchise him, and hindsight is 20/20, but since the injury was in early September the Jags should have had enough medical info on him by March 1st that they could have made a good guess. Even if he hadn't recovered, the mistake would have only been a one year hit. In retrospect the alternative of Lee/Moncrief was definitely a mistake, and Lee still impacts the team cap.

- I thought 850 yards was generous but it seems somewhat reasonable. Lee at 70% of 850 or about 700 yards this year? No, I wouldn't bet on it.
- I'm not convinced yet on the ACL being healed. Recent surgical advances have certainly changed the game though.
- I agree to a point on his working hard in a franchise tag year and your Lee/Moncrief argument is valid. On the Jags making a good guess in March, maybe they did.

It wasn't a foregone conclusion that Lee would get hurt and Moncrief would suck, it could have gone the other way, too. Excluding them and looking just at Arob, have the Bears gotten value from their investment in him yet?

From what little I watched of the Bears last year, ARob looked to me to be his former self, cutting and making tough catches. He was never all that fast. He led the Bears in receiving last year, and I'm not convinced Trubisky is any more than mediocre.

I agree the jury is still out on the decision. Robinson could end up as a problem child for the Bears. Lee could come back and have a great season, but the odds are very low, and would have been even if he hadn't been injured. The Jags replaced a potential top-level receiver with two mediocre receivers. At the time I was not so alarmed that they didn't keep Robinson as I was that they signed Lee and Moncrief, especially since the money they paid Moncrief for just one year was a significant fraction of what they would have paid Robinson under the franchise tag (also for just one year). If the Jags had used that money for another position instead of Moncrief that would have been more sensible.

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"