12-4 feels like someone's been drinking the Kool-Aid. Here are a few reasons why we won't get there:

• Secondary: without Ramsey we were completely exposed. Herndon has promise, but he's not ready to be glued to an opponent's top receiver, and the Broncos abused him in that role. If Ramsey returns, things look much better here. If not, good QBs and good WRs will pick the back end apart.
  
• OL: Putting Richardson in gave this OL a completely different vibe, but there are still issues at the tackle spots. Robinson should improve as the year goes on, but he needs to learn to keep his emotions in check or he's going to do something dumb that kills a key drive or, you know, takes us out of field goal range when Lambo is about to line up for the game winner. Taylor should also improve, but he's a rookie and so far he looks like it. As we saw last week, as goes the OL, so goes the run game, and as goes the run game, so go the Jaguars. Which brings me to my last point...
  
• Minshew: Yes, he's the second coming of Uncle Rico. Yes, he's playing lights-out ball as a rookie. Yes, he has completely blown every expectation for his entire career out of the water in four games. Yes, I am totally on board with him as the Jaguars' future, but he's still a rookie QB. He'll throw interceptions, he'll fumble, he'll make boneheaded decisions with the ball every once in a while. Early returns are incredibly promising, and I'd love nothing more than for Minshew to make Nick Foles into the highest-paid backup in league history, but there will be rough patches. If those rough patches come during a game where the OL can't block to save its life and Fournette can't get going as a result, well, the rook can only carry the whole team on his back for so long before it breaks.
  

The reasons why, ironically, are basically the same. If Ramsey comes back, the secondary is fixed. If the OL figures its stuff out, Fournette is a monster. If Minshew keeps the rookie mistakes to a minimum, the passing game is as big a threat as it's been since the days of Brunell connecting with Smith and McCardell.

I think somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6 makes sense.

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