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KodiakJag · 12-17-2019, 04:38 AM

I'm filling in for Bullseye while health issues prevent him from posting. Bullseye, we all miss you and hope your situation improves.

Another week, another poor result (1-2) on my personal picks. Oh well, on to the recaps:

[font=Arial]Houston[/font] @ [font=Arial]Tennessee[/font] - Recap

Early on, the Titans (8-6) seemed to be in control vs. the Texans (9-5) as they intercepted a long Watson pass, then drove down the field for a field goal attempt, which would be blocked in a sort of karmic retribution for their blocking of a critical Colts field goal try in week 13. Still, they maintained defensive pressure and sustained a long offensive drive only to have it end with a freak interception from 1st & goal at Houston's 5 yard line that would be returned for roughly 90 yards. Yeah, it was one of those games. Regardless, you can't expect to go into halftime down 14 points to a quality team and count on making it up.

The Titans really let a golden opportunity slip by them. Prior to the game, they still had a realistic shot at the division title. A win would have given them roughly a 75% chance of taking it. However, the loss they absorbed leaves them with three coin flips, and all of them would have to turn up in their favor for them to still take the division. Nah, not happening. I'd like to give an early congratulations to the Houston Texans for winning the AFCS division this year.

Jacksonville @ [font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Oakland[/font][/font][/font][/font] - Recap

To be sure, no one saw this coming. It was heavily expected that our Jaguars (5-9) would be traveling to Oakland (6-8) for a 4pm loss last Sunday. The Raiders needed this win to salvage any postseason hopes, and were considered fortunate to be hosting a team that traditionally struggles mightily on the west coast. In a game that saw a ton of sacks on both sides, our Jaguars got the better of the Raiders and ended Jon Gruden's quest for his first winning season as HC since 2008. Oakland was a long shot to make the playoffs anyway, but color me guilty for experiencing a little schadenfreude in that it was our Jags who ended their season.

[font=Arial]Indianapolis[/font] @ [font=Arial][font=Arial]New Orleans[/font][/font] - Recap

We pretty much all knew this was going to happen, so I'm not even going to spend time commenting on it. This performance by Indy, however, makes me want to look forward to week 17, where a Colts/Jags matchup could decide last place in the AFCS.

Here's how I see the AFC playoffs shaking out:

1) Baltimore
2) New England
3) Kansas City
4) Houston
5) Buffalo
6) Pittsburgh

I guess I'll be pulling for the Ratbirds from here on out, since the thought of yet another Tom Brady superbowl makes me want to vomit.

Now for the picks (and I'll post Prisco's picks after he makes them):

Game 1 ([font=Arial]Houston[/font] @ Tampa Bay)

The Texans (9-5) will be doing battle with the Buccaneers (7-7) in Raymond James Stadium on SATURDAY (yes, Saturday football). Tampa has has decent success against the AFCS this year, logging wins over the Colts and Jaguars, and dropping a 27-23 contest to the Titans in which they held a 23-20 lead until late in the 4th quarter. They are also on a 4-game win streak. However, this game is much more important to the Texans than it is to the Bucs. If the Texans win this game, they win their division. If they lose this game, they will have to endure an agonizing 24 hour wait for the outcome of the Saints/Titans game to find out if the division is theirs or not. If the Texans lose and the Titans win, week 17 becomes a winner-take-all contest, and Houston wants nothing to do with that scenario. Therefore, next Saturday is their Superbowl, and they will prevail over the Bucs.

[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Texans[/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font] 35
[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Buccaneers[/font][/font][/font] 24

Game 2 (Jacksonville @ Atlanta)

Our Jaguars (5-9) take the short trip to Atlanta to take on the Falcons (5-9) in a 1pm game. Both teams have suffered disappointing seasons, but the Falcons have seemed to find their groove the last two weeks, managing to beat the Panthers (5-9) and the 49ers (11-3). Wait, what? The Falcons beat the 49ers last week? They sure did, and they did it on the road. Credit the Falcon's defense (well, and WR Julio Jones) for the win. Looking over the highlights of the game, I was impressed with Atlanta's pass defense, which seemed to frustrate Jimmy G. almost the entire game. In this game, I expect the Jaguars first to try running Fournette, which will probably be ineffective. We'll then try having Minshew get something started through the air, but I believe this Falcons defense will be up to the challenge. As bad as our run defense has been, I still expect Atlanta to have Ryan air it out against us. How successful this ends up being will determine the margin of victory.

Falcons 26

[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Jaguars[/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font] 19

Game 3 (Carolina @ [font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Indianapolis[/font][/font][/font][/font])

The Kyle Allen-led Panthers (5-9) visit Indianapolis to take on the Colts (6-8) in a battle of postseason also-rans. The Panthers seemed able to move the ball on the ground and through the air against the Seahawks last week, losing a close 30-24 contest in a failed comeback. Last night, the Colts got absolutely destroyed by a similar caliber team to the Seahawks. Still, the Colts are playing at home. Then again, they've lost 4 in a row. Coin flip time...Indy won the toss.

[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Colts[/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font] 24

[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Panthers[/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font] 23

Game 4 ([font=Arial][font=Arial]New Orleans[/font][/font] @ [font=Arial]Tennessee[/font])

The Titans (8-6) try to keep their division (and postseason) hopes alive when they host the Saints (11-3) this Sunday. I expect the NFC log jam with 4 teams being tied for the conference lead at 11-3 to coerce the Saints into giving it their all this game. They may need to, as this year's Titans are no slouch and have already been proven to be dangerous when their chips are down. Still, taking down Drew Brees and the Saints offense is a tall order. I expect the Saints to win this game, but I wanted to explore a remote possibility here. Assuming my picks go against me like they have the last two weeks and the Buccaneers and Titans win, the week 17 Titans-Texans game will have huge implications for.....wait for it.....the Steelers! If the Titans won that contest they would win the AFCS and the Texans would knock out the Steelers for that final wildcard spot, assuming the Steelers did lose to Baltimore in week 17. This assumes I understand the NFL's tiebreaking rules properly. It's just an interesting possibility, but I don't see it happening.

[font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial][font=Arial]Saints[/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font] 32

[font=Arial]Titans[/font] 21

Last Week 1-2

Overall 29-17

Pete Prisco last week 1-2

Pete Prisco overall 24-22

Note: Sorry in advance about the screwy formatting. For some reason, I cannot get it to behave.

"We believe in victory!" - Gus Bradley
"I don't want to believe. I want to know." - Carl Sagan