(05-20-2020, 09:39 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:

(05-18-2020, 03:42 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

I predicted the following at the time I started this thread.  I almost nailed the Bottom Date which turned out to be 3/23/2020 but underestimated the bottom number which turned out to be 18,591 (which was over 2,000 lower than my prediction)

Prediction
1) Bottom: 20,750
2) Bottom Date:  3/20/2020 
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 27,000

Yes, Monday was a great day with regards to the market.  I'm fully invested in the S&P Index which went from 2,630 to 2,960 --- I missed the bottom of 2,237 but was very close, considering it's nearly impossible to trade at the exact bottom.  If we start going back down for some known reason (e.g. pandemic breakout round 2 w/ no vaccine), I'll go back to cash/mutual fund to stabilize my funds then get back in on the way up.  This is actually a decent time to profit but timing the trades.

Looking back I should have gone Large Cap Class II which is more tied to technology (NASDAQ) but I felt more comfortable with S&P500 when i got back in and Fidelity limits trading activity so I didn't want to go into excess trading jail (prohibiting trades for 90 days and even up to 1 year).  Overall I'm down ~ 5% from our highs and ~2.5% year to date which isn't bad considering where we were in March (down 20%+) even though I had 40% tied up in bonds.

Just my opinion, but an S&P 500 index fund isn't a bad option.  Depending on your age and timetable you are going to do well in the long run.  I've held a small position in an S&P 500 index ETF (IVV) through this whole deal and it still hasn't reached the "break even point" (I had bought at $309.86 and it's currently at $296.21).  I am confident that by the end of Q3 it will be in the green barring any major catastrophe.  It will take perhaps into next year before it reaches it's 52 week high of $340.63.

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