(12-23-2020, 03:48 PM)Upper Wrote: There was actually an article I read, and I'm pretty sure I shared around here, from a few years ago that showed recently failed retreads do very well in their second stints. It's the retreads that try to return to coaching after a sizeable time out of the sport that fail again. In general, of course, it's not a hard rule.

Dick Vermiel was out of football for 15 years, and then came back and won the Super Bowl with the Rams.  For those of you too young to remember, he was the very successful head coach of the Eagles, then he spent 15 years doing college football color commentary for ABC, then he became coach of the Rams and won the Super Bowl with Kurt Warner.  

I see a retread as a safe, conservative choice.  The retread has head coaching experience.  He may have not had success, but it may have been because he never had the right QB, or the right overall talent on the team.  Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, both retreads.  Tony Dungy.  Pete Carroll did the total flame-out with (I think) the Jets, but later came back as coach of the Seahawks.  

A candidate without head coaching experience is more of a high ceiling, low floor kind of choice.  You might get a superstar, or you might get a total dud.   First timers I can think of off the top of my head:   Josh McDaniels failed.  Adam Gase is failing.  Gus Bradley failed.  On the other hand, Mike Tomlin.  Tom Landry.  Vince Lombardi.  Jimmy Johnson.  All first timers.  Mike Vrabel. 

The right candidate is a natural leader with a good personality, steadiness, organizational skills, extremely strong work ethic, and very high football IQ.  I don't think you can say, no retreads or no first timers.  Personally, I would hire the GM first, and then work with the GM to select a HC that meshes with the GM.  The success of a HC is so dependent on having a good GM to supply him with talent.

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