(01-06-2021, 11:40 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: This is subject to change, but as of now, below is how I feel about the potential head coaching candidates that have been linked to Jacksonville:

My choice as front runner:  Arthur Smith, Tennessee Titans OC

For some reason, he doesn't come across as an exciting choice, but there's a a reason he's the only candidate who has been asked to interview for all 6 open positions.  In his second year as offensive coordinator, he runs the second ranked (tied) offense in the NFL for the division winning 11-5 Titans.  Some will say that he had Derrick Henry, but Henry averaged only 764 yards in his first three seasons, but averaged 1,783 per year in his two years under Smith.  He also turned Tannehill from a mediocre quarterback destined to be a backup into a near pro-bowl caliber player.  His prior experience is mostly as a tight ends coach.  One thing that I like is that there were multiple regime changes and yet they all decided to retain Smith.  He obviously had obtained an excellent reputation within the building.  His experience is also a little diversified having worked as a defensive coach early in his career.  I don't see any major weaknesses.  He's never been a head coach and could have a more extensive resume, but I don't see anything that I would consider a significant "red flag".

My second choice:  Brian Daboll, Buffalo Bills OC

He's currently the offensive coordinator of the second ranked (tied) offense in the NFL for the division winning 13-3 Buffalo Bills.  He has done an amazing job coaching a young Josh Allen into a top tier quarterback.  This is particularly impressive considering that Allen, coming from Wyoming, was considered "raw" and "a project".  I also like the diversity of Daboll's background.  He has coached quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers and was even a defensive assistant early in his career.  He has also spent several seasons working for Bill Belichick in the highly successful New England Patriots organization.  I am tempted to make him my front runner, but I see a red flag.  He has been an offensive coordinator for 7 years and in 6 of those years, his offense has been ranked in the bottom 10 of the league.  He once finished dead last.  I would like to think he has learned and improved, but it does at least raise the question of whether he is a "one hit wonder".

Others worth interviewing:

Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City Chiefs OC

He's the offensive coordinator of the AFC's number one seeded team, the 14-2 Kansas City Chiefs.  In his 3 years as offensive coordinator, his offense has ranked 1st twice and a very respectable 6th once.  I think that largely says it all.  His prior experience is mostly as a running backs coach, although he was offensive coordinator for the University of Colorado for two years.  He's a very tempting candidate and I see him as having a very high ceiling.  However, I also see him as risky.  He has multiple red flags.  Many question whether the Chiefs success is due to their players or offensive mastermind Andy Reid as head coach.  Reid apparently calls most of the plays.  Bieniemy has only called plays at the University of Colorado and their performance was mediocre.  He also has many off the field issues.  I'm forgiving of someone who makes one mistake.  However, if you make mistake after mistake after mistake, I start to see it as a character flaw.  It helps that most of those incidents are in the past, but it still can't be ignored completely.

Robert Saleh, San Francisco 49ers DC

He's been defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers for the last four years.  His defense was ranked 5th this year despite facing many obstacles and finished 2nd the year prior.  Prior to defensive coordinator, he's held various defensive coaching positions including linebackers coach with our Jaguars.  Some believe he has the right personality and leadership skills to make an excellent head coach.  The biggest negative to me is that I would prefer someone on the offensive side.  He's also a disciple of Gus Bradley.  While I know that doesn't necessarily mean that they are one in the same, it is a concern.  I'm also interested in at least exploring the possibility of switching to the 3-4 here and that's not his thing.

Jason Garrett, former Dallas Cowboys Head Coach

I will admit that I don't know a lot about him, but on paper, he appears to at least be worth exploring.  Unlike the ones listed above, he has been an NFL head coach.  In his 9 full seasons as a head coach, he only had one losing season.  He's brought his team to the division title 3 times and is 2-3 in the playoffs.  In his last 6 seasons, he had double digit wins in 3 of those seasons.  He got fired for going 8-8 which hardly seems like the crime of the century.  The team won 6 games the next year without him.  The argument against him is that some felt the teams had higher expectations.  Some have also questioned certain coaching decisions.  I don't know enough about the Cowboys to know the validity of those claims, but if we want an experienced NFL head coach, he appears to be one of the more promising ones available and would be worthy of further exploration.

Others NOT worth interviewing:

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons Interim Head Coach

He has experience as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but is that the experience we want?  He was a combined 17-31.  I'm not sure why he's being interviewed unless it is to satisfy the Rooney Rule.

Urban Meyer, Former Ohio State and Florida Head Coach

I think he would be a terrible pick and a huge risk.  He has ZERO coaching experience in the NFL.  People like to mention Carroll and Coughlin, as successful college coaches but Carroll had previously been head coach of two NFL teams and Coughlin, albeit only as a wide receivers coach, had at least previously been with three different NFL coaching staffs, including one that won the Super Bowl.  Tell me if I'm wrong, but the last successful college coach with no NFL experience to have prolonged success in the NFL was Jimmy Johnson, but he was hired 30 years ago.  Why do we believe in Meyers when both Saban and Spurrier failed?  It's a different skill.  Successful college coaches have great recruits.  NFL teams don't get that luxury of far superior talent.  Also, to the extent that it is about X's and O's, they are different between the two levels.  I watched some of the Spurrier NFL games and he was an absolutely terrible coach.  As an example, he would go for it on 4th down when good coaches would have punted.  In the NFL, you have an NFL caliber punter who can punt farther than your college punter.  Spurrier didn't seem to know that.  You also have NFL defenses that have the talent to stop a team on 4th and 1. It wasn't that he was dumb, but he had years of college coaching experience working against him.  Spurrier stole defeat in games that could have easily been won if it weren't for his poor decisions.  I don't want us to make that mistake with Meyer.  He'll be guessing when making decisions while the coaches above will be using their NFL experience to make informed decisions.  The concerns don't stop there.  You also have the issue that he doesn't seem to stay at a program for very long.  Will he take a short term approach to winning and then dump us in lousy shape?  He also has health issues.  What if he can't coach a big game?  Meyer has also been accused of covering up wrong doings.  He also presumably would get to select the GM and likely have significant control over him.  That will discourage many good GM candidates from coming here.  None of this is good stuff.  In regards to the salary, it's true that it doesn't count against the salary cap.  I would be fine with $12 million for the best candidate if it weren't guaranteed.  However, NFL contracts rarely work that way.  They are typically multi-year and guaranteed.  Let's hypothetically assume, we give Meyer a 5 year, $60 million guaranteed deal.  What happens if Meyer flops?  Khan is not going to pay all that money and then hire a new coach.  We will be stuck with him for the full five years.  On the other hand, if we hypothetically select one of the above coaches at a much lower salary and he sadly turns out to be a disappointment in a couple of years, at least it would be much easier to fire him and get back on track with a new coach.  Meyer is a hard pass for me.  I'm not saying he will 100% fail, but no NFL experience makes him the riskiest candidate on the list (other than possibly the proven loser of Morris).  

Your thoughts?

Though I hate Tennessee, I respect the hell out of what Arthur Smith has done with their passing game.  Since the time we came into the league, for the most part, the tacks have had an absolutely moribund passing game, with maybe a 3-4 year period between 2000-2004.  Now?  A.J. Brown is an absolute stud, and Corey Davis isn't bad, even though the tacks decided not to extend him.  He has gotten far more out of Tannehill than any other coordinator, while still utilizing the strength of that team-Derrick Henry.

Daboll appeals to me because he has experience under several excellent coaching staffs, including Buffalo.  He has direct, first hand experience about developing a young QB and putting in personnel around him.  He helped add OL around him with a drafteee like Ford and free agents like Tszekhe.  He has been part of a group that traded for a stud WR in Diggs, signed a key free agent in Cole Beasley, and added a key TE in Dawson Knox.

As for Bieniemy, his knowledge base is good, coming from the Reid school and his many years in the NFL.  Yes he has fights in his past.  If all football players who have had fights were ever precluded from coaching in the future, there would be a lot fewer people in the coaching ranks.   I also wonder what his defensive scheme would be, as the chiefs have run both 4=3 and 3-4 while he was there.

Saleh provides kinda the opposite problem.  Saleh came through the same schemes that Gus Bradley instituted.  With him, I'm left to wonder about his offensive schemes.

I agree completely with you on Urban Meyer.  But I would consider Jim Harbaugh.  He's played in the NFL and coached in the NFL and reached a Super Bowl.  He's still at Michigan for now, but has run the program down.  This would be the ideal shot for him to control his descent so to speak, and return to the level where he had the most success.

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