(04-04-2021, 11:37 PM)Bullseye Wrote:

(04-04-2021, 03:11 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: Bingo!  Every time the team mis-evaluates a player, he goes down in history as a "need pick" and every time the Jaguars hit, he goes down as "BAP" in some people's world.  They often forget that many of our good players were considered "needs" and "reaches" at the time and we have plenty of guys who were called "BAP" on draft day who turned into busts.  Just because Mel Kiper has a player ranked a certain way, it doesn't mean the Jaguars do.  No team purposely takes busts.

With this in mind, I wonder what kind of drafter people categorize all of our GMs.

TC?  You could argue he hit on more first rounders than any of our other GMs:

1995-Boselli, Stewart
1996-Hardy
1997-Wynn
1998-Taylor, Darius
1999-Bryant
2000-Soward
2001-Stroud
2002-Henderson

Pretty good list, right?  But what of his second round picks?
1995-DeMarco, Schwartz
1996-Brackens
1997-Logan
1998-C. Taylor
1999-L. Smith
2000-Meester
2001-M. Williams
2002-Mike Pearson

So if TC were a BAP drafter, why were there so many misses in the second round?  If he were a needs picker, why so many hits in the first round?

Shack Harris?  His first round picks...

2003-Leftwich
2004-Reggie Williams
2005-Matt Jones
2006-Marcedes Lewis
2007-Reggie Nelson
2008-Derrick Harvey

His second rounders?

2003-Rashean Mathis
2004-Greg Jones and Darryl Smith
2005-Khalif Barnes
2006-Maurice Jones Drew
2007-Justin Durant
2008-Quentin Groves

Here, the dynamic is the opposite of TC:  lots of misses in the first round, way more hits in the second round.  Was he a needs drafter or BAP? Those who subscribe to BAP as an overarching draft philosophy argue that if the targeted player does not meet the value of the pick, you trade down.  That's exactly what he did with Reggie Nelson.  Did he switch philosophy from the first and second rounds?  Now I remember speculation that Gene Smith used to make the picks after the first round.  Fine.  Let's look at Gene Smith's picks:

1st round:
2009-Eugene Monroe-9th overall
2010-Tyson Alualu-10th overall
2011-Blaine Gabbert-10th overall
2012-Justin Blackmon-5th overall

2nd round:
2009-Eben Britton
2010-N/A-pick traded in 2009 for CB Derek Cox
2011-N/A-Don't remember what happened with this pick
2012-Andre Branch

He used to say he was a BAP drafter, and people on this board believed him.  "In Gene We Trust..." right?  The above lists were an unmitigated disaster.  According to those who adhere to BAP philosophy, the above shouldn't happen.  Not even close.  Yet he routinely allowed superior talent to go to lower picking teams.  Note:  the lists below are in no way all inclusive

2009

• Clay Matthews to Green Bay (yes I remember those debates)
  
• BJ Raji to Green Bay
  
• Brian Orakpo to Washington
  
• Malcolm Jenkins to the Saints
  
• Alex Mack to Cleveland
  

2010

• Earl Thomas to Seattle i4th overall
  
• Jason Pierre Paul to the Giants-15th overall
  
• Mike Iupati to the 49ers-17th overall
  
• Maurkice Pouncey to the Steelers -18th overall
  

2011

• J.J. Watt to Houston-11th overall
  
• Robert Quinn to the Rams-14th overall
  
• Mike Pouncey to the Dolphins-15th overall
  
• Ryan Kerrigan to Washington-16th overall
  
• Nate Solder to NE 17th overall
  

2012

• Bryan freaking Anger-A PUNTER-over Russell freaking Wilson
  

Now for Dave Caldwell

First rounders

2013- Luke Joeckel
2014-Blake Bortles
2015-Dante Fowler
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2017-Leonard Fournette*
2018-Taven Bryan*
2019-Josh Allen*
2020-C.J. Henderson, K'Lavon Chaisson

2nd rounders
2013-Jon Cyprien
2014-Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson
2015-Tj Yelson
2016-Myles Jack
2017-Cam Robinson*
2018-DJ Chark*
2019-Jawaan Taylor*
2020-Laviska Shenault

*  Denotes picks that may have been made by TC upon his return to the franchise.  Feel free to include them under his category if you like

With Caldwell, his picks most closely resembles Shack Harris':  Lots of misses in the first round, more hits in the second.

Undoubtedly you have noticed I did NOT compile a list of players taken after our picks with any of the other GMs except for Gene Smith.  Why?  Two reasons.  First the very nature of the draft shows that teams are going to pick good players after your pick.  That part is inevitable.  Two, and most importantly, Gene Smith got ZERO IMPACT from his picks, on the whole.  TC hit hugely on a good number of his first round picks.  Shack got a Pro Bowl season out of Marcedes Lewis (who is still playing) and Nelson developed into a Pro Bowler with Cincy after JDR lost faith in him.  Plus, Shack had a slew of outstanding picks in the second round where Smith got none.  Finally, Caldwell at least hit big on Ramsey in the first and with Robinson, and Jack in the second.

So which GMs were needs pickers and which GMs were BAP?

It's a trick question, they were all needs based drafters. Gene exposed himself fully when he took Anger because he wanted a starter, no one who takes best player would have done that.

Something the exercise shows is teams with a lot of needs have an easier time picking good players because they're usually picking higher and don't have many good players that they're thinking they shouldn't replace.

The Williams and Harvey picks fully exposed shack, the Anger pick fully exposed Smith, Caldwell got exposed in that moronic Fowler pick, and TC always admitted he was all about need (he just was luckier than the others).

Bap drafting is how teams like the Steelers win over decades. Needs based drafting is how teams like the Jaguars never seem to fill any needs.

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