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Bullseye · 04-05-2021, 10:36 AM

(04-05-2021, 06:33 AM)SeldomRite Wrote:
(04-04-2021, 11:37 PM)Bullseye Wrote: With this in mind, I wonder what kind of drafter people categorize all of our GMs.

TC? You could argue he hit on more first rounders than any of our other GMs:

1995-Boselli, Stewart
1996-Hardy
1997-Wynn
1998-Taylor, Darius
1999-Bryant
2000-Soward
2001-Stroud
2002-Henderson

Pretty good list, right? But what of his second round picks?
1995-DeMarco, Schwartz
1996-Brackens
1997-Logan
1998-C. Taylor
1999-L. Smith
2000-Meester
2001-M. Williams
2002-Mike Pearson

So if TC were a BAP drafter, why were there so many misses in the second round? If he were a needs picker, why so many hits in the first round?

Shack Harris? His first round picks...

2003-Leftwich
2004-Reggie Williams
2005-Matt Jones
2006-Marcedes Lewis
2007-Reggie Nelson
2008-Derrick Harvey

His second rounders?

2003-Rashean Mathis
2004-Greg Jones and Darryl Smith
2005-Khalif Barnes
2006-Maurice Jones Drew
2007-Justin Durant
2008-Quentin Groves

Here, the dynamic is the opposite of TC: lots of misses in the first round, way more hits in the second round. Was he a needs drafter or BAP? Those who subscribe to BAP as an overarching draft philosophy argue that if the targeted player does not meet the value of the pick, you trade down. That's exactly what he did with Reggie Nelson. Did he switch philosophy from the first and second rounds? Now I remember speculation that Gene Smith used to make the picks after the first round. Fine. Let's look at Gene Smith's picks:

1st round:
2009-Eugene Monroe-9th overall
2010-Tyson Alualu-10th overall
2011-Blaine Gabbert-10th overall
2012-Justin Blackmon-5th overall

2nd round:
2009-Eben Britton
2010-N/A-pick traded in 2009 for CB Derek Cox
2011-N/A-Don't remember what happened with this pick
2012-Andre Branch

He used to say he was a BAP drafter, and people on this board believed him. "In Gene We Trust..." right? The above lists were an unmitigated disaster. According to those who adhere to BAP philosophy, the above shouldn't happen. Not even close. Yet he routinely allowed superior talent to go to lower picking teams. Note: the lists below are in no way all inclusive

2009

Clay Matthews to Green Bay (yes I remember those debates)

BJ Raji to Green Bay

Brian Orakpo to Washington

Malcolm Jenkins to the Saints

Alex Mack to Cleveland

2010
Earl Thomas to Seattle i4th overall

Jason Pierre Paul to the Giants-15th overall

Mike Iupati to the 49ers-17th overall

Maurkice Pouncey to the Steelers -18th overall

2011
J.J. Watt to Houston-11th overall

Robert Quinn to the Rams-14th overall

Mike Pouncey to the Dolphins-15th overall

Ryan Kerrigan to Washington-16th overall

Nate Solder to NE 17th overall

2012
Bryan freaking Anger-A PUNTER-over Russell freaking Wilson

Now for Dave Caldwell

First rounders

2013- Luke Joeckel
2014-Blake Bortles
2015-Dante Fowler
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2017-Leonard Fournette*
2018-Taven Bryan*
2019-Josh Allen*
2020-C.J. Henderson, K'Lavon Chaisson

2nd rounders
2013-Jon Cyprien
2014-Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson
2015-Tj Yelson
2016-Myles Jack
2017-Cam Robinson*
2018-DJ Chark*
2019-Jawaan Taylor*
2020-Laviska Shenault

* Denotes picks that may have been made by TC upon his return to the franchise. Feel free to include them under his category if you like

With Caldwell, his picks most closely resembles Shack Harris': Lots of misses in the first round, more hits in the second.

Undoubtedly you have noticed I did NOT compile a list of players taken after our picks with any of the other GMs except for Gene Smith. Why? Two reasons. First the very nature of the draft shows that teams are going to pick good players after your pick. That part is inevitable. Two, and most importantly, Gene Smith got ZERO IMPACT from his picks, on the whole. TC hit hugely on a good number of his first round picks. Shack got a Pro Bowl season out of Marcedes Lewis (who is still playing) and Nelson developed into a Pro Bowler with Cincy after JDR lost faith in him. Plus, Shack had a slew of outstanding picks in the second round where Smith got none. Finally, Caldwell at least hit big on Ramsey in the first and with Robinson, and Jack in the second.

So which GMs were needs pickers and which GMs were BAP?

It's a trick question, they were all needs based drafters. Gene exposed himself fully when he took Anger because he wanted a starter, no one who takes best player would have done that.

Something the exercise shows is teams with a lot of needs have an easier time picking good players because they're usually picking higher and don't have many good players that they're thinking they shouldn't replace.

The Williams and Harvey picks fully exposed shack, the Anger pick fully exposed Smith, Caldwell got exposed in that moronic Fowler pick, and TC always admitted he was all about need (he just was luckier than the others).

Bap drafting is how teams like the Steelers win over decades. Needs based drafting is how teams like the Jaguars never seem to fill any needs.

1. Was not designed to be a trick question. It was an honest inquiry.

2. So if needs drafters are on teams with lots of needs, why wouldn't they "graduate" to "needs at the most important positions? Under that rationale, Gene Smith would have gotten progressively better at his job the worse he did in earlier drafts. Whatever success he had on the field were primarily due to players acquired before Smith became GM (Garrard, MJD, Marcedes, Meester, Rashean, etc.) The roster got progressively worse as those Shack players disappeared from the roster and the effects of Smith's failures to infuse the roster with talent in his early drafts became apparent.

3. You assume Fowler was a need pick. The team had tons of needs at the time the Fowler pick was made, and again Fowler blew out his knee 30 minutes into his first mini camp workout. Also unanswered is how Caldwell found so much success in the 2014 and 2016 drafts if he were purely a needs drafter and needs drafters get it wrong.

4. I will say this: the Steelers have had an uncanny record of first round drafting since 1995. Very few flat out busts. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/steelers . I think BAP drafting doesn't fully explain their success. I think there's more to it than that.

I believe system continuity has helped. They've been running a 3-4 defense since the 1980s. Their scouts and GMs know exactly what to look for in that defensive system and where to find them in the draft. They haven't gone back and forth like many organizations.
I believe they do an excellent job developing those players. Not just first rounders. But they seem to do a good job with mid round players too. They are willing to be patient and let them develop. To me, this is best exemplified with their LBs, where guys like Jason Gildon, Earl Holmes and Joey Porter, among others, have come in and given them quality play over the years.
I think part of their success is attributable to hitting on their QBs. Even when they have had down years at the position, their QBs were only so bad. Between Bradshaw and Big Ben, they had guys like Mark Malone, Bubby Brister, Neil O' Donnell, Mike Tomczak, Kordell Stewart, and they managed to briefly resurrect the career of Tommy Maddox. Part of that is attributable to good coaching knowing how to best utilize mediocre QBs, no matter how acquired. But when they hit on their QBs, it solidified the position for a decade or more. Since hitting on Big Ben, they've not had any BLs, Gabberts or Bortles. Admittedly, this may speak to good organizational discipline as it pertains to BAP philosophy.
Either as an organization, they know how to beat piss tests, they have a very strong substance abuse/dependence program, or they stay far away from people with any substance abuse issues. The last Steelers first rounder I can recall washing out due to substance dependence was Tim Worley way back in the late 1980s. They don't have a bunch of R Jay Sowards, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones or Justin Blackmons there.
They have the right guys making the ultimate decisions. They had a much higher bust rate among first rounders under Tom Donahoe (1991-1999) then Kevin Colbert (1999-present). Under Donahoe, they drafted busts like Huey Richardson, Jamain Stephens and Troy Edwards. If they had an organizational philosophy of BAP back then and BAP minimizes the chances of drafting busts, then he shouldn't have had three busts in 8-9 years. Colbert has had few busts in 20 or so years since he's been on the job.

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!