(04-06-2021, 08:27 PM)Bullseye Wrote:

(04-06-2021, 07:19 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: I haven't researched it but I am willing to be that at least half of all first round picks ever made were considered flops.  The truth is, no matter how much you analyze a good part of the draft is Luck.  I have seen guys the "draft gurus" and media pump up as "can't miss prospects" flat out flop.  It happens every year.

Former Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly frequently says the percentage of players that are starters in the league drops by round.  He repeated this recently, and I can't fully remember it, but I think he was saying a second rounder has a 50% chance of becoming a starter, while a 5th or 6th rounder has maybe a 9% chance.  I have looked for a link reflecting these percentages many times but have never found it.  If I find it I will post.

I'm genuinely awed by your encyclopedic football knowledge and recall, Bullseye.

The NFL Draft: Shotgun Marriages v. Marriages "For Love" – The Sports Economist

"If Phil Miller's Saturday post on the NFL draft is Day 1, then here is a Day 2 examination. NFL writers/analysts love to speculate on draft picks, although a bit of a "draft-grading backlash" has emerged (See PFT on Meaningless Draft Grades.) A particular study of the draft that amounts to more than just hot air is cited by former NFL GM Charley Casserly in a post on Reiss's Pieces (part of Boston.com) and draws from a 10-year study evaluating drafts after four years had passed. Casserly describes the percentage of draft picks, by round, that wind up as NFL starters:

First round – 75 percent
Second round – 50 percent
Third round – 30 percent
Fourth round – 25 percent
Fifth round – 20 percent
Sixth round – 9 percent
Seventh round – 9 percent
The NFL draft is an example of a market "design mechanism" -- the particular decision rights, sequences, and incentives that determine choices and transactions. A subsection of this literature focuses on matching mechanisms -- including two-sided matching like marriage, medical residencies, or the free-agent versus one-sided like the draft (see Google Scholar search for a sampling)..."

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