(05-02-2021, 03:25 PM)rpr52121 Wrote:

(05-02-2021, 02:59 PM)Bullseye Wrote:  

Only the Tacks, Bills or Steelers melting down in such a manner would give me more satisfaction.

---

An interesting take.

How did you arrive at the Colts winning the division over Tennessee?

For Tennessee:
No one has lead league in rushing 3 consecutive years since Emmit Smith with the Cowboys. Henry has 700+ touches in 2 years and few short of 400 touches last year. He will be good, but I just don't see him matching this level of play again. While Tannehill has been exceeded expectations, he is not the kind of QB who lifts up his supporting cast. And he just lost his most explosive TE and 2nd WR.

Also they shed a lot of secondary that has been key to them running their aggressive defensive style. Yes, the defense was bad last year, but that more to lack of creating pressure than really bad coverage, and they didn't do enough to balance that out.

For Indy.
River last year was middling. His only good game against a reasonable defense was GB. Wentz was definitely horrible last year, but I think he can at least duplicate was Rivers was and play like Wentz in 2019. They definitely have some questions on the offensive line, but I still think they can generate a reasonable running game. They also have issues with creating pressure on defense, but I think they are better.

Not saying Colts will run away with it. With the division playing AFC East and NFC West, I think even 9-8 may win the division with tiebreakers, 10-7 definitely would.

This actually makes a ton of sense. 

I could see Henry falling off due to over use and Tannehill being unable to pick up the slack.  I think with his size, Henry could take the wear a little more than some other backs before him, especially since there are so many restrictions on how to tackle now.  That decline may not happen until 2022.  The Jaguars may or may not have the run defense to even exploit any decline until 2022.

---