(05-03-2021, 11:52 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:

(05-03-2021, 05:20 PM)Bullseye Wrote: So it's inaccuracy by omission?

I'm not sure if I fault Meyer for putting an emphasis on guys he has first hand background information on.

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I can understand the criticism based on need.  That's not what I'm asking about, though I wanted to explore his logic above.  As to the larger initial inquiry. I'm wondering about the lack of defense of the team's draft based upon BAP.

It seems nobody thinks the Jaguars drafted BAP, even though nobody has access to their board.

Fans almost never have access to a team's board.  The team will be accused of ignoring BAP if they ignore players that people consider BAP.  As I stated in a previous message, I looked at 8 different draft prospect rankings.  Not one had Etienne as the BAP at that spot.  Ditto for Campbell and by an even larger margin.  To pour salt on the wounds, at both draft spots, there were players available at need positions that were considered very good value at those spots.  In most cases, multiple players.  We got neither need nor value.  Maybe every single draft analyst is wrong and the Jaguars are right, but when a team makes moves that don't make much sense, they are going to be criticized for it.  Would you expect anything less?

Of course fans won't have access to the team's board.

While your diligence in comparing eight different player rankings boards is really quite commendable, there are still problems with that approach to the analysis.  First and most obviously, none of those player rankings boards may actually reflect the feelings of the Jaguars specifically or NFL teams generally. If, for example, the creator of a board has a positional bias against RBs in the first round that NFL teams don't have, them it stands to reason any RB would be ranked lower on the board than the NFL team might rank them.  Player rankings boards do not take into account the overall philosophies of the teams drafting or the draft order.  That's why most sites have separate mock drafts and player rankings boards.  A team's player rankings board will undoubtedly take their own schemes, player or positional paradigms and philosophies into account.   As a result, even if these things threw off the rankings by as little as one spot (i.e. the average ranking is 26th as opposed to 25th), the Jaguars might come off on the losing end of the analysis even if they stuck to BAP philosophy according to their own rankings.

Secondly, creators of these board can tell you there isn't necessarily a correlation between the board rankings and draft order, because any number of things can impact where a player comes off the board.  Even assuming any player rankings board or aggregate ranking of numerous player rankings boards reflect the feelings of NFL teams, a trade up by a team desperate for a position can skew the board.  Teams may well have felt JOK was a first round pick in terms of pure talent, but his medical condition recently revealed knocked him down.  Farley was ranked in the top ten for the first part of the offseason until his back surgery was disclosed.  Furthermore, the unpredictable pick nor non pick-whether or not skewed by a trade or undisclosed medical condition or character concern-can also throw things off.  Almost nobody had Leatherwood the 17th ranked player on their board, and almost nobody had him going ahead of Darrisaw.  Once the unexpected happens, teams below them could adjust their boards accordingly.  Guys they didn't expect to be on the board at their picks are suddenly there, while guys they expected to be there are gone.  That impacts who gets taken off the board and when.   Do teams make mistakes?  Absolutely.  Lord knows the Jaguars have made more than their share.  But what is never considered is that maybe those who compile these player rankings for public consumption make mistakes, too.

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(05-04-2021, 06:29 AM)MarleyJag Wrote: All the angst and second guessing is fine, it's what fans do. But grading a draft immediately after is like judging a college recruiting class before they've played their first game. One thing Meyer has demonstrated in his career is the ability to recognize talent so I'm betting in retrospect this draft will get a better grade then it's currently being given.

With that said, I'll give the draft a B+. I really like Little, I think he'll be looked at as one of the steals of the draft. Obviously Lawrence was a no brainer. The rest are largely solid picks demonstrating Meyer's commitment to building better team speed and a better culture.

I certainly hope you are right about this draft class getting better grades over time and games played.  That's ultimately what counts.

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