(11-29-2021, 05:12 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:

(11-28-2021, 12:50 PM)Bullseye Wrote: It's highly unlikely that we pull off 7 straight wins and make the post season, so I figure why not talk some draft with a few questions.

1.  Irrespective of position or where they are projected to go in the draft, who are on your top 5 wish list for the Jaguars?  Mine?  Jordan Davis, Jameson Williams, Lindenbaum, Isaiah Likely, Jahon Dotson.

2.  Assuming we end up with a top 5 pick, would you be willing to trade down?  If so, how far back would you be willing to trade back?  Is there a player you would have in mind when determining how far back to trade?  In other words, below this point, your targeted player likely would not be available?

3.  Is there a player for whom you would trade up?

4.  Of the top 5 you listed in #1 above, is there a player/position you would be willing to forgo in the draft if you signed a top tier guy in free agency?

5.  If you were unable to get a trade down and were forced to pick in the top 5, who would be your target?  For me, Jordan Davis.

There are only two players on my wish list- Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. I really believe that both of these players have the ability to be multi-year pro bowlers. Along with Josh Allen, either of these pass rushers would elevate the defense to the next level. There are still needs to be filled at linebacker, but I'd feel very good about the roster on that side of the ball.

If the Jaguars do not have a top 2 pick, they should try to trade down if Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are gone. At the current time, I don't see any other players who would be great value with the 3rd pick. I haven't seen enough of Evan Neal to determine whether he'd be worth the 3rd pick. Several mocks have him being taken by the Jags with a top 5 pick. After the Luke Joeckel fiasco, they had better be nearly certain that he can excel at LT in the NFL if they do consider him. Kyle Hamilton has also been mocked to us on some boards, but they can't afford to take a safety that high when they have much greater needs at pass rusher and offensive line. Jenkins and Cisco can be a good tandem once Cisco gets the playing time he deserves. 

There is no way I'd trade up for our first pick. This team cannot afford to lose any high draft picks due to the state of the current roster. The price to move up in round 1 would be too high. However, I would strongly consider moving back up to the end of round 1 or the very top of round 2 if there is one receiver or offensive lineman who they love and is surprisingly still on the board. If they only move up a few spots, the price wouldn't be too bad. 

Free agency will obviously have some impact on who they draft. If they land a tackle like Armstead (highly unlikely), I'd pass on a tackle in rounds one or two. If they sign a top receiver like Godwin, that wouldn't change my opinion that they should take another one in round 2 where a very good player will be available. A receiving corps of Godwin, Bell, Shenault, M. Jones and Agnew would be very solid. If Chark comes back for one more season and stayed healthy, this group would be hard for most defenses to handle.

Earlier, I left the impression with someone that I am somewhat averse to taking a pass rusher early.  I want to emphasize that although I think a competent GM can find a 3-4 OLB in the mid rounds, a dominant 3-4 OLB is well worth a top 5 pick.  Lawrence Taylor, Cornelius Bennett, Derrick Thomas and Von Miller are examples of 3-4 edge rushers well worth the top 5 pick.  You could add Aldon Smith to that analysis were he not for his off field issues.  He had a huge initial impact with the 49ers. 
Certainly the Jaguars could benefit from a guy of that caliber.  We need another catalyst on defense.  Having an effective edge rusher opposite Allen will make Allen and the interior DL more effective rushing the passer.  Considering we have problems getting off the field defensively, considering we have created so few turnovers, a defensive catalyst is very important to any future success we want to have. 

Regarding trading up, I do not, in any way, envision trading up into the top 5.  Aside from the fact I think we'll have a top 3 pick by the time the season is over and the draft order is set and there won't be any need to trade up any higher than we are, I'm not sure anyone would be worth the cost to move up one spot.  On top of that, I think the team is more apt to trade back out of the top 5 than they would to trade further up into the top 5.  When I mention trading up, I am envisioning trading up into the bottom half of the first round or possibly in the bottom half of the second.  We currently have two 3rd round picks (our own and Carolina's), maybe a couple of 5th round picks, maybe four 6th round picks, and I think a couple of 7th round picks.  While we need numbers for depth, more importantly we need impact,  Impact is more likely to be gained with higher draft picks.

As for non edge rusher candidates for the top 5, I have some mixed feelings.  Given how awful Taylor has been, if you can convince me Neal could play RT effectively, I might consider him.  But there are three issues with that.  One, I'm not sure he has the feet needed to succeed at LT.  Second, there is the positional value argument that you should not spend a top 5 pick on a RT when you can find RTs later.  Third, there's the issue of Walker Little.  Because he has gotten so little playing time this year, we don't know what he can do.  He had one last minute start at LT, and looked shaky, but it seems like he has the innate ability to succeed at T if given good enough coaching and reps to develop.  If he can play either T position effectively, do you want to replicate that pick in the top 5?  If we deem Little good at RT, do we want to take Neal in the top 5 if he is a RT and not a LT?  If Little CAN play LT effectively, do we take Neal and shift him to RT, even if he's better at LT?  What if the team decided to retain Cam Robinson another year because they still aren't sure about Little?!?  As for Hamilton, I've gotten so sick of Jenkins' penalties I am almost entertaining the idea of being okay with Hamilton higher than I might otherwise want to draft a S-though I'd prefer to trade back a few spots to take him if it came to that.

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