(12-13-2021, 12:57 PM)Mikey Wrote:

(12-12-2021, 11:41 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: Below is how we stand with the draft order based upon our remaining games:

• If we win 0 games, we're guaranteed to be drafting at least #2.  We would need Detroit to win a game for us to be drafting #1.  Their remaining schedule is Arizona (10-2), Atlanta (6-7), Seattle (5-8) and Green Bay (9-3).
  
• If we win 1 game, we're guaranteed to be drafting at least #4.  However, that assumes our lone win is against the Jets.  If our lone win is against Houston, we're guaranteed to be drafting at least #3.
  
• If we win 2 games, we're guaranteed to be drafting at least #5.
  
• If we win 3 games, our drinking water should be checked because we're suffering from group hallucinations.
  

The bottom line is that we're picking in the top 5 again.  The most likely scenario is that the Houston/Jacksonville game next week decides who picks #2 and who picks #3.

I know its not gonna happen, but if DET gets a second tie and we lose out, we go to tiebreakers as W-L pct is the same. Ties count as half game in W-L %, so 1-14-2 would be 2/17 wins/games played as would 2-15.

This is why ties are great! Break up monotony!

In these types of analyses, I usually don't bother to mention ties because they are so rare.  However, I believe you are correct.  If Jacksonville loses out and Detroit has a tie, we would be considered to have the same winning percentage.  The tie breaker would be strength of schedule.  Jacksonville has a worse strength of schedule, and it is significant enough that it is likely to hold.  Jacksonville would pick #1.

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