(02-22-2022, 10:57 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:

(02-19-2022, 11:59 PM)Bullseye Wrote: This is the time of year where draftniks start to formulate their opinions on the ddraft overall and what their particular teams should do in the draft.  There are three guys generally speculated to be the #1 overall pick.  Of those three, it seems Evan Neal is not the most popular choice among many draftniks who are Jaguars fans.  However, contrary to popular belief, Evan Neal ‘s athletic attributes, positional value, versatility, and team need makes him the best choice for the Jaguars if the team is forced to stay at #1.

There is certainly an argument to be made that Neal is the BAP at that spot in the draft.  Based upon the mocks by the national draft experts, Neal is almost universally viewed as a top 3 player.  With his massive size at 6-7. 350 lbs and his considerable athletic ability, it makes him an imposing specimen.   He was a 5 star recruit out of high school, so he has been identified as a pro prospect for years.  He was a 3 year starter At Alabama, playing against top notch pass rushers, giving up only one sack this year.  He received pro level coaching from Doug marrone.  Say what you will about Marrone as a head coach, he is known for getting production out of the OL.  In large part due to Marrone's coaching, one of Neal's strengths is his technique.  Technique is a huge part of what makes for the best tackles.  Anthony Munoz had great technique, as did Boselli. Neal's technique will help his transition into the NFL.   This combination of warrant consideration for him at the top spot.

From a need basis, there is plenty to like about Beal being the #1 overall pick.  As of this writing, the Jaguars have three (3) starters from last year who are free agents:  Cam robinson, Andrew Norwell, and AJ Cann.  Furthermore, RT represents a huge hole, as Taylor has been awful.  His propensity to give up sacks and commit penalties kept the Jaguars and TL in far too many awful down and distance situations which bogged down drives.   Some will argue T is less of a need than people think because Cam Robinson only gave up one sack and Walker Little showed promise at LT at the end of the year.  However, Robinson has been viewed by most as a liability at LT, and most thought it was a mistake tp slap a franchise tag on him last year.Walker Littls started all of three gmes after being sidelined since 2019 in college due to a knee injury and Covid.  He is far from a proven commodity.  Most people argued OL was definitely the area of biggest need last year.  Walker Little’s 3 games as a starter, does not equal the team has upgraded OL.  Drafting Neal would increase comnpetition on the OL and be a bit of a safeguard against possible failure by Little.  Furthermore, dating back to 2015, of the team’s NINE (9) first round picks in that span, SIX (6) f them have been spent on the defense.  Of the three offensive players referenced, two of those picks were RBs-Fournette (no longer on the team) and Etienne (missed his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury).  The 3rd was Trevor Lawrence.  Besides the pending free agents along the OL, there is huge need at the skill positions.  Chark, the only one of the receivers who can get any kind of vertical separation, is a free agent.  Meanwhile, the defense not only had the benefit of all of those high picks, the bulk of the free agency money went to the defense last year.  Trevor Lawrence needs help,  refusing to prioritize getting him surrounding help especially when the draft value is there is gross negligence.
 
Furthermore, Neal’s versatility would have a tremendous positive impact on OL depth.  Injuries to the OL can be one of the biggest obstacles to team success.  If you recall, one of the main reasons the 2018 Jaguars fell off so dramatically from the 2017 performance was the injuries to the offensive line, starting with the loss of LT Cam Robinson. Conversely,it’s proven that sufficient quality depth along the OL can prove to mitigate the negative effects of injuries, even if it wouldn’t completely prevent the injuries from happening.  Jaguars fans who were around the first five years can remember one of the big advantages we enjoyed was having a guy in Ben Coleman who could step in and play LT at a reasonably high level when Boselli went out with injury.  Indeed, at various points, Coleman had success against guys like Derr8ick Thomas, Neil Smith and Jevon Kearse enabled the Jaguars to win games against quality opponents because they were able to provide adequate protection for Brunell in Boselli’s absence.  To cite a more contemporary example, the 2017-2018 Philadelphia Eagles, coached by Doug Pederson,, won the Super Bowl despite being down to their 3rd string LT.   With Neal’s proven versatility (having played 3 positions along the OL in college), the Jaguars could begin to replicate the deoth dynamics cited above.  If you drafted Neal, minimally, you’d have two guys who could put in quality snaps in at LT with he and Little-replicating the dynamic with Boselli and Coleman.  If you kept Robinson, Taylor, Little and still drafted Neal, the team would be in a position where no fewer then three players could presumably give you quality snaps at LT (Neal, Robinson and Little) and three guys who could play RT in a pinch (Neal, Little, and Taylor), which would enable the Jaguars to keep performing at a reasonably high level like that Eagles’ team Pederson coached to a title.   Neither Hutchinson nor Thibideaux can provide that sort of versatility.

Some would argue that taking Neal would be a mistake, especially if he couldn’t immediately play LT, or that selecting Neal would serve to waste Walker Little’s development at LT.  I submit neither proposition would  be the case.  First off, Jon Ogden played G his first year and he was the 4th overall pick in 1996.  Nobody contends Ogden was not worth the selection that year because he started out as a G, and there isn’t too much difference between the #1 overall pick and the $4 overall pick, especially in a draft class without a top tier QB.  Furthermore, I submit that sometimes, the standard of drafting shouldn’t necessarily be BAP, but instead BAP for the team.  The 2013 draft wasn’t a particularly strong draft, especially at the very top.  But two teams in Peserson’s career benefitted greatly from it in Kansas City and Philadelphia.  KC picked LT Eric Fisher #1 overall.  While Fisher was no Boselli, he was the best player  that draft for the Chiefs.  He wound up solidifying LT for the Chiefs for years, and manned that most important spot for the Chiefs when they won the Super Bowl about three years ago, and his absence was critical to the Super Bowl loss the following year to Tampa.  In Philly, the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson out of Oklahoma.  While some thought he had the capability of playing LT, he has played exclusively RT for the Eagles, and was a critical part of the OL that helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl under Pederson.  You don’t necessarily have to be all world to be the # 1 pick in the draft, just the best player for the team that’s picking in that spot.  As for Little, I would envision Little and Neal competing for OL position if Neal were drafted.  I submit the competition would make both players better no matter which side of the line they played.


I believe Neal would provide a tremendous upgrade to the OL no matter whic side of the OL he played on and would provide a lot of support to Trevor Lawrence.  He would fit a need and improve depth tremendously with his versatility  He certainly warrants consideration at #1.

He warrants consideration, but I wouldn't make him my pick.  I start with BAP.  People are entitled to their opinion, but there seems to be a consensus among most that Neal is not BAP at #1.  I saw a 2022 NFL prospect tracker with 8 different sites.  Not one of them had Neal as the BAP.  Not one.  Only two had him second.  Hutch, on the other hand, was #1 in five of those sites.  While Neal is often being mocked to Jacksonville, many of them appear to be doing it largely on perceived need and sometimes ignorance.  I heard one mock drafter on the radio (who projected Neal to the Jaguars) being asked "Why not just franchise Cam Robinson?" and he was a complete deer in the headlights and just stuttered trying to find words to say.  It was obvious he hadn't even considered it.  I doubt he considered the Walker Little factor either.  Many of these professional mock drafters study the draft prospects in detail, but they often don't know the situation in all 32 teams and that's often multiplied by 10 with the Jaguars.  

In regards to needs, your stat about 6 out of our last 9 first round picks being defense sounds nice, but isn't a good argument to justify offense.  3 of those defensive draft picks are no longer on the team and a 4th isn't under contract next year and even if he was hypothetically re-signed, his name is Taven Bryan.  Of the two who are actually under contract for next year, one of them is named K'Lavon Chaisson.  Only 1 of those players is still with team and expected to be a starter for the Jaguars next year.  A single former first rounder being a good defensive player is not great a reason to blindly ignore the entire defensive side of the game.  Besides, when looking at need, I personally don't look at it as "offense" versus "defense", but position versus position.  Just because your defense is better than your offense, it doesn't mean that a defensive position couldn't be your biggest need or vice versa.  While I support taking the edge rusher at #1 this year, it doesn't mean that I'm ignoring offense this off-season.  If I had my way, it would be quite the opposite.  We have the top draft picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round and another early 3rd rounder.  I would likely use at least 3 out of those 4 picks and possibly all 4 on offense.  We also have a ton of money in free agency and would highly target offensive positions with that money.  The top pick would be a nice bone to defense, but the off-season would otherwise be a feast to the offense.

I've also seen this line about 3 offensive line starters being free agents, but I consider it to be misleading.  Bartch started the majority of the season and clearly outplayed Cann.  I consider Bartch to be last year's starting guard and would be this year's starting guard assuming the same team returned.  That leaves two starters as free agents.  One of them is Cam Robinson.  If we want him back, we got him back because of the franchise tag.  That leaves 1 player.  Norwell is the only starting offensive lineman who could leave without us choosing to let him go.  However, he's a guard.  I'm not using the #1 overall pick on a guard.  As such, he's irrelevant to the #1 overall pick discussion.

I also think versatility is extremely over-rated when talking about the #1 overall pick.  Yes, for later picks, and particularly depth picks, it's nice to have players who can play multiple positions to fill in as needed.  However, with the #1 overall pick, I'm taking him to play ONE position.  You mention Coleman and Boselli.  The versatility was with Coleman.  Did Boselli have previous experience at right tackle and guard?  I really don't know and I really don't care.  We took Boselli to play left tackle and I wouldn't want Boselli to play anything but left tackle.  If we draft an offensive lineman #1 overall, I want him at left tackle.  

This brings me to one of my big issues.  With this pick, we are doing one of two things.  One possibility is that we are drafting Neal to be right tackle.  You don't take right tackles at #1 overall.  The positional value is not there.  Let's find some other way to address it.  The other possibility is that we are putting Neal at left tackle which means we are giving up on Walker Little as a left tackle.  That feels extremely premature.  He was a rookie last year.  He was a highly touted draft pick that only dropped to the early second round because of an injury which appears to be healed.  Although it was a limited opportunity, when given a chance to play, he looked good.  I'm not guaranteeing he's the long term answer, but I reject someone who is guaranteeing he's not.  Why not wait a year and see how it plays out?  With so many needs on a 3-14 team, why are we using the very valuable #1 overall pick on a player that isn't BAP and might turn out to not even be a need?

Let's also not under-estimate the value of a good pass rush.  Put pressure on the opposing quarterback and their offense will fall apart.  I've seen it too often.  i also see what happens when you don't put pressure on the quarterback.  Good teams with good quarterbacks will walk all over you.  If our ultimate goal is to be the best, we need a dominant pass rush.  The AFC is completely loaded with great young quarterbacks.  We need to counter that with a great young pass rush.  Josh Allen isn't enough.  You need two edge rushers.  The benefits will filter through the team.  Get a good pass rush and our entire secondary will look better.  By ending these ridiculously long drives, our defense will be more rested and our run defense will be better.  Get some 3 and outs and put THEIR tired defense back on the field and our offense will look better.  Pass rush is a huge part of the game and has become more and more important with the game being centered around passing.  Last year, we drafted the most important position on offense.  This year, let's draft the most important position on defense.  Oh yeah, and he's BAP too.

Two great posts there ^  Really well thought out and well written.  

My thinking on this issue continues to evolve.  But right now, I am strongly leaning towards retaining Robinson and drafting one of the two edge rushers.  It seems like letting go of Cam and drafting Neal is just churning our roster and not making any great improvement.  We've got plenty of cap space, so tagging Cam or signing him to a contract is not going to kill us.  He's a decent left tackle, but who do we have opposite Josh Allen?  Really not much.  Of course, all this has been said before.  

There's a million ways to skin a cat, so the above plan is of course not the only decent plan.  But it seems like the simplest, safest thing to do.  And it allows us to use the #1 overall pick on a player who will give us the greatest roster upgrade.  

Maybe I'm just gun-shy from a decade of thinking we can let a guy walk because he's easily replaced, and then acquiring a replacement who is worse than the guy we let walk.  We have Trevor Lawrence on his rookie contract for 4 more years.  If we start the rebuilding process by tearing things down first, we add years to the rebuilding process.  We know what we have in Cam Robinson.  Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are there for the taking.  Let's not make a hole in the roster that forces us into picking by position instead of by player.

So what I am saying is, let's keep Cam Robinson.

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