Things can change quickly, but as of now, this is a complete disaster for Putin and for Russia.  So far, the invasion has failed miserably, his army looks weak and incompetent, and a whole bunch of neighboring countries have pledged massive amounts of military and financial support to Ukraine.  Nato is united, and sanctions are about to cause an economic disaster in Russia.  Putin's threat of "I have nuclear weapons!" seems like the kind of move someone would make as a last resort. 

As the sanctions hit the Russian economy, and the oligarchs who support Putin pay a very heavy price, one has to wonder, what is the end game for Putin?  Can he successfully extract himself, or will he be humiliated and overthrown?  

Invading Ukraine was Putin's pet project, completely unnecessary.  The oligarchs as well as the general Russian population at some point will think, didn't we have a better life before this invasion?  This totally sucks, and what do we stand to gain?  Even if we manage to conquer Ukraine, what will we have then?  A hostile population and a never-ending insurgency.

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