(04-06-2022, 02:12 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Hypothetically, IF the Jags actually want to draft someone other than Hutchinson, and IF no one else knows this, don't you think the Jags would drop from #1 to #2 for very little in return?  If they're going to draft Neal anyway, for example, and they know they can either have (a) Neal at #1, or (b) Neal at #2 plus anything at all, don't you think they would take (b)? 

That's what I think a lot of people don't seem to understand.  Sure, they aren't going to get a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.  But maybe they don't need a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.

What if the Jags couldn't decide between Walker and Hutchinson?  Wouldn't they be willing to trade the #1 for #2 plus a 4th rounder, for example?  If the Jags don't have any value differential between the #1 and the #2 pick, then #2 plus a 4th rounder is worth more to them than the #1 overall pick.  Right?  

This stuff I hear on the radio about "Oh, no one is going to offer a blockbuster deal, so the Jags won't be trading the pick," is nonsense.  They don't need a blockbuster deal, because the #1 overall pick just isn't worth that much more than any other pick in the top, say 4 or 5 picks.

I understand your point.  Hypothetically, if you are completely indifferent between two prospects, you might as well trade down one spot and take whatever trade compensation you can get.  If the best you can get is a 4th rounder, it makes sense to take it.  However, you are making a lot of assumptions here.  The two players must have perfectly equal talent and equal scheme fits for your team.  If they play different positions, both positions must be equal needs and have equal positional value.  You also need to have the team drafting #2 not feeling the same way.  What logical reason is there for them to offer anything if they are also indifferent between two prospects?

As for the actual case at hand, I am not indifferent between Hutch and the next prospect.  I want Hutch.  I would like to see if Walker Little can develop before making a major investment in a left offensive tackle.  I would make an exception if there was a truly elite tackle here, but there is not.  As for other positions, we don't have a need at cornerback.  I don't like taking a safety at #2 overall as I don't feel the positional value is there.  We need a wide receiver, but none are worthy of the #2 pick.  There are a couple of edge alternatives in Walker and Thibs.  While Walker and Thibs might have Hutch's upside, I see them as much more risky and a lower floor.  I would need more compensation than a 4th rounder for me to assume that risk.  If that's the best offer we get, I would stay with Hutch.

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