(05-20-2022, 05:08 PM)Firesky Wrote:

(05-20-2022, 04:42 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I've been wanting to compare and contrast drop rates and this presents a good opportunity.

Jags 2021 WR/TE drop rates: 

Marvin Jones:  73 catches - 832 yards - 1.7% drop rate
Laviska Shenault: 63 catches - 619 yards -  8.0% drop rate
Laquon Treadwell: 33 catches - 434 yards - 5.9% drop rate
Dan Arnold:  28 catches - 324 yards -   4.9% drop rate
Jamal Agnew:  24 catches - 229 yards - 2.0% drop rate
O'Shaughnessy -  24 catches -  244 yards - 8.8% drop rate

Projected New Jags 2022 WR/TE drop rates from 2021:

C. Kirk:  77 for 982 - 5.8% drop rate 
Z. Jones: 47 for 546 - 2.9% drop rate
E. Engram: 46 for 408 - 8.2% drop rate

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O'Shaugnessy dropped a lot of catchable balls last year and Engram did too. 
Engram is a more dynamic player - so the caught passes should;d amount to more if he's healthy long enough. 

Both Marvin and Zay Jones are very consistent catchers. 

Agnew had few drops but we'll have to wait to see how much of a role he's given in the pass game. 

Treadwell had a pretty average drop rate number, just a shade under the mark you'd like to see. 

Arnold - pretty average rate. 

Shenault's drop rate in preseason could determine his fate.
 His number last year was bad and his rookie year (3.8%) was very good. Will he acclimate? Your guess is as good as mine. His impressive 389 yards after catch and 10 broken tackles last year could be very valuable if he can get his hands back to form.

What was Charks rate? Also it's not just the % of drops, it's also the timing of them and the fact that they're dropping darts and well thrown balls. I forgot to mention in my first post but seperation was arguably as big an issue as the drops were. I just felt like besides Agnew in flashes and Chark in the first 3 weeks that NO ONE got open enough to generate a consistent passing offense.

I think they need to use Shenault like Deebo Samuel. reverses, screens, handoffs. His route running is poor and he doesnt' catch the ball consistently enough for me (8% is gross, thats about 4x as many as MJJ) he's a bulldozer once he has the rock but the problem has been getting it to him in the right scheme/space to make plays once it's there.

Engram has a reputation for drops; im surprised Kirk has 5-6% as well, I thought he was rather sure handed. I'm also curious to see when in games the drops occured, not just quarter but down and distance as well. It felt like on 2nd and long and on any 3rd down we had that the ball was hitting the turf. I strongly suspect that Sanjay Lal did little to contribute to the WR's development and him and Urban combined led to some extreme regression as opposed to how good most of the same guys looked under Keenan's tutelage. Really hoping that Pederson & Chris Jackson can turn this group around.

Chark's rate has been consistently between 3%-4.5% each year. 

Separation was a major issue. You can definitely put a little of that on the scheme and route tree Bevell/Meyer had in place, but much of it was on the receivers. 

Zay Jones represents a major upgrade in this department. His cut-up from 2021 is chock full of catches being made with 2 steps or more on his guy. 

Kirk is an upgrade as well, but to a lesser degree than Jones. Both of those receivers are VERY adept at sitting down in the gaps between zone coverage when they face it. (Kirk's prior seasons' drop rates have been 5.9, 3.7, and 2.5 - so he's capable of a better number)

TE mismatches are also going to be a helpful offset to the separation issue. Pederson is sure to dial up plenty of them. 

RE: Shenault - I trust Pederson to use him more wisely than what we've seen, but it will all likely hinge on whether he proves he can shake this case of drop-pox he picked up last year. (I really think it's a matter of acclimating to Trevor's velocity and likely overcome-able - he had no issues as a rookie w/ Minshew)

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