(02-16-2023, 09:27 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: FWIW - This new regime wasn't afraid to roll the dice on upside with the #1 overall pick, so I imagine picks 24, 56, and 88 will be no different if they see enough attractive upside.
Of the guys mentioned, I have a feeling Kancey's measurements at the combine will hurt his stock, but iit only takes one GM willing to pull the trigger.
Personally, I think his lack of arm length makes him better suited to a 4 man front in the 3T role than a 3-4 end. Will be interesting to see where he lands and how he turns out.
Every other prospect report on Breese just glow about his positive traits - while the others urge caution. Seems kind of polarizing to draftniks.
I haven't watched enough to have a take yet. One report I read made him sound perfect for our need of interior disruption.
It said something like "cuts through B gaps like a butter knife" or something silly like that.
Either way - both prospects fit the boom/bust billing here.
Speaking more abstractly - tight end prospects in general seem to have a pretty high bust potential. I can think of several that have been popular draft season topics here that never amounted to much.
I have too much work to get to today, but it would be interesting to sift through the past several years of drafts to see what happened to all the TEs taken in rounds one through four. I bet there are many highly touted prospects who didn't pan out. Perhaps a higher % than some other positions.
Your comments about the risks of taking a tight end high in the draft piqued my curiosity. It is true that tight end is one of the 3 positions in which teams have meaningful numbers of success stories with players taken after the first round. The other two positions are running back and linebacker. Added to that, since 2011 there have only been 10 tight ends drafted in the first round and the success rate for those is very poor. The best has been Hockenson, who was taken 8th in 2019, but the majority of those 1st rounders were major disappointments to their teams. That list includes Noah Fant, Njoku, Gresham, Hurst, Howard and Evan Engram. Hopefully Engram will continue to flourish with the Jaguars, but that will be no consolation to the Giants. Added to that, future HOF'ers Gronkowski and Kelsey were taken in rounds 2 and 3 respectively. Tony Gonzalez is really the only "modern day" first rounder whose team hit a "home-run" on. The list beyond that is also quite small with Kellen Winslow Sr., Mike Didka and Ozzie Newsome the major standouts.
While Musgrave certainly is a "high reward" possibility, the evidence tells us that the risk would be too great. Mayer is likely to be taken by some team in the first round, however is a much "safer" pick in round 1. I'd still pass on him in round 1 preferring one of the OL, DL or even cornerbacks.
Of the 3 players I named, Kancey is the one who has the best chance of dropping to the Jaguars in round 2. As you said, his combine measurements are likely to hold him back- especially if he measures less than 6'0". I believe he'd be my top choice for the Jaguars in the 2nd if he is on the board. His production and superior pass rushing traits would be too hard for me to pass on.
