This year's pre-draft mocks seem to be all "over the place" including the projections for the Jaguars at pick 24. Which 3 potential draft picks for the Jaguars would you consider having the highest risk/reward if selected? My 3 (in no particular order) are:

1. Siaki Ika- If he doesn't gain more weight and improve his durability, he has the potential to be a very disruptive nose tackle who opens things up for pass rushers. Or he can eat himself out of the
                  NFL after a few seasons.

2. Luke Musgrave- Could be major receiving weapon alongside Engram at tight end. Is also a capable blocker. Risk is his small body of work and injury during 2022 season.

3. Calijah Kancey- This pass rushing DT is mocked all over the place. Great production in college with several desirable traits. Can he become Aaron Donald "light" or will he "swallowed up" by 
                          much bigger NFL offensive linemen?


As things stand now, I'm still undecided on whether I'd take any of these in round 1, but they are all very intriguing possibilities.

---

If we stick with a 34 base Ika makes too much sense. I like what I have seen of Kancey, even if he isn't the biggest DL out there. I have been wanting is to draft a top TE for years, I would be stoked if we draft Musgrave.

---

1.Breese
2. Smith-Njigba
3. Kancey

---

Breese

---

FWIW - This new regime wasn't afraid to roll the dice on upside with the #1 overall pick, so I imagine picks 24, 56, and 88 will be no different if they see enough attractive upside.

Of the guys mentioned, I have a feeling Kancey's measurements at the combine will hurt his stock, but iit only takes one GM willing to pull the trigger.
Personally, I think his lack of arm length makes him better suited to a 4 man front in the 3T role than a 3-4 end. Will be interesting to see where he lands and how he turns out.

Every other prospect report on Breese just glow about his positive traits - while the others urge caution. Seems kind of polarizing to draftniks.
I haven't watched enough to have a take yet. One report I read made him sound perfect for our need of interior disruption.
It said something like "cuts through B gaps like a butter knife" or something silly like that.

Either way - both prospects fit the boom/bust billing here.

Speaking more abstractly - tight end prospects in general seem to have a pretty high bust potential. I can think of several that have been popular draft season topics here that never amounted to much.
I have too much work to get to today, but it would be interesting to sift through the past several years of drafts to see what happened to all the TEs taken in rounds one through four. I bet there are many highly touted prospects who didn't pan out. Perhaps a higher % than some other positions.

---

1.Breese
2. Smith-Njigba
3. Kancey

Think I agree here.

---

1.Breese
2. Smith-Njigba
3. Kancey

Breese is a good call. He also seems like a Baalke-type player. He's not one of my favorite choices for the Jaguars, maybe due to his ACL injury, but he definitely falls into the boom or bust category.

---

FWIW - This new regime wasn't afraid to roll the dice on upside with the #1 overall pick, so I imagine picks 24, 56, and 88 will be no different if they see enough attractive upside.

Of the guys mentioned, I have a feeling Kancey's measurements at the combine will hurt his stock, but iit only takes one GM willing to pull the trigger.
Personally, I think his lack of arm length makes him better suited to a 4 man front in the 3T role than a 3-4 end.  Will be interesting to see where he lands and how he turns out.

Every other prospect report on Breese just glow about his positive traits - while the others urge caution. Seems kind of polarizing to draftniks.
I haven't watched enough to have a take yet. One report I read made him sound perfect for our need of interior disruption.
It said something like "cuts through B gaps like a butter knife" or something silly like that.

Either way - both prospects fit the boom/bust billing here.

Speaking more abstractly - tight end prospects in general seem to have a pretty high bust potential. I can think of several that have been popular draft season topics here that never amounted to much.
I have too much work to get to today, but it would be interesting to sift through the past several years of drafts to see what happened to all the TEs taken in rounds one through four. I bet there are many highly touted prospects who didn't pan out. Perhaps a higher % than some other positions.

Your comments about the risks of taking a tight end high in the draft piqued my curiosity. It is true that tight end is one of the 3 positions in which teams have meaningful numbers of success stories with players taken after the first round. The other two positions are running back and linebacker. Added to that, since 2011 there have only been 10 tight ends drafted in the first round and the success rate for those is very poor. The best has been Hockenson, who was taken 8th in 2019, but the majority of those 1st rounders were major disappointments to their teams. That list includes Noah Fant, Njoku, Gresham, Hurst, Howard and Evan Engram. Hopefully Engram will continue to flourish with the Jaguars, but that will be no consolation to the Giants. Added to that, future HOF'ers Gronkowski and Kelsey were taken in rounds 2 and 3 respectively. Tony Gonzalez is really the only "modern day" first rounder whose team hit a "home-run" on. The list beyond that is also quite small with Kellen Winslow Sr., Mike Didka and Ozzie Newsome the major standouts.

While Musgrave certainly is a "high reward" possibility, the evidence tells us that the risk would be too great. Mayer is likely to be taken by some team in the first round, however is a much "safer" pick in round 1. I'd still pass on him in round 1 preferring one of the OL, DL or even cornerbacks.

Of the 3 players I named, Kancey is the one who has the best chance of dropping to the Jaguars in round 2. As you said, his combine measurements are likely to hold him back- especially if he measures less than 6'0". I believe he'd be my top choice for the Jaguars in the 2nd if he is on the board. His production and superior pass rushing traits would be too hard for me to pass on.

---

Jaelyn Duncan is another high risk high reward guy.

If he hits, he's going to be a 10 year starter at LT.

---

Breese, Musgrave and Ringo are my biggest boom/bust type players. Due to very common patterns we see in players deemed boom or bust. Health concerns, consistency issues on the field and scheme fit specific.

I personally wouldn't want neither of these players in RD1 with the 24th overall pick. However, with that said? It wouldn't surprise me if this group has a decent impact in year two, year three. It won't be world beater level impact but it'll be some degree of impact.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

1. Anthony Richardson.
2. Breese
3. Ringo

---

Breese, Musgrave and Ringo are my biggest boom/bust type players. Due to very common patterns we see in players deemed boom or bust. Health concerns, consistency issues on the field and scheme fit specific.

I personally wouldn't want neither of these players in RD1 with the 24th overall pick. However, with that said? It wouldn't surprise me if this group has a decent impact in year two, year three. It won't be world beater level impact but it'll be some degree of impact.

Good call on Ringo.  Very boom or bust pick.

---

Ringo and Duncan are both good calls. Both of these players possess the physical/size attributes of what teams are looking for at cornerback and offensive tackle respectively. Unfortunately they were both quite inconsistent. Ringo is still likely to go in the first round, however I'd pass on him at 24 since there should be other players on the board who had more consistency. Duncan is likely to go in rounds 2 or 3. He'd be a great 3rd round choice since he could eventually become a quality starter at tackle with the proper coaching and hard work.

---

A bit on the side, but do you guys see the current coaching staff tilting the boom/bust-ratio in our favor? Seeing how many players who have improved throuout this season I would be more inclined to take more chances.

---

A bit on the side, but do you guys see the current coaching staff tilting the boom/bust-ratio in our favor? Seeing how many players who have improved throuout this season I would be more inclined to take more chances.

It would be interesting to watch the dynamics between Baalke and Pederson when deciding on their big board for the Jaguars. We know Baalke loves taking big players with freakish athletic traits. Trevon Walker certainly fit that category. We still don't know how good he will become as a pass rusher, although he has to improve significantly in this area to become an elite Edge rusher. I would still not have called him a high risk pick since his athleticism and other positive traits pretty much guaranteed he wouldn't be a total bust. Baalke has never had any hesitation in selecting players who had significant injuries like ACL's while in college. I could see Baalke favoring someone like Breese for these reasons, however I'm not sure how Pederson would feel about that. I could certainly see Pederson preferring that the Jaguars draft a "difference maker" on offense. If he is extremely high on Luke Musgrave, for example, I could see him as a possible pick despite the fact that he certainly falls into the high risk/reward category. Not saying Pederson would insist on an offensive player in round 1; he would just be more likely than Baalke to feel this way to his strength in coaching the offense.

Bottom line, we have no way of knowing their thoughts on this prior to draft-day. I'd prefer they not select anyone in the high risk/reward category in round 1 since there should be several "safer" choices who would be great fits for the Jaguars based on need and value. They are close to becoming a top 3 team in the AFC (as long as Lawrence and Pederson are around), but can't afford a bust at the number 1 pick if these hopes are to become a reality. Therefore, I would prefer they pass on players like Breese, Ringo and Musgrave in round 1- despite the fact that have the possibility of becoming elite players in the NFL. I'd be much less hesitant in rounds 2 and later to take a player in this category. Both Myles Jack and MJD fell into this category and were great picks in the 2nd round.

---