AFC QB Tiers to start the season

Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes 
Already one of the greatest QB's of all time.

Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes on one leg.
Yes, Nick Wright is correct.

Tier 3: Joe Burrow
As much as Mahomes is tier by self, Burrow has proven himself to deserve standing above the rest of the conference with his production even with lackluster offense lines.

Tier 4: Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson
"I've seen what you can do, but can you consistently do it enough in the playoffs?"

• Yes, Allen had 2 great B2B playoff games once. But that is it, he need more consistency.
  
• Jackson had a similar issue a few seasons back, but now cannot even stay healthy to play in the playoffs.
  

Tier 5: Josh Herbert/Trever Lawrence/Tua Tagovalioa
"I think I see something but was that mirage"

• Herbert appears to have all the talent and mind, but cannot get his team to playoffs. It is the scheme, coaching, injuries, or just horrible luck? Has to overcome eventually or he will fall down to the Jimmy G/Tannehill level.
  
• Lawrence appears to have turned a corner to show the "generational talent/promise". But every fantasy player can list off lots of QB's and players who have a hot stretch for half a season and don't replicate it. 
  
• Tua had a great 1/2 of last season, but injuries and teams starting to better scheme against their offense caused them to fall back to earth. Can he actually last a full season healthy? Can they duplicate their offensive success of the first half of '22?
  

Tier 6: Russell Wilson/Aaron Rodgers/DeShaun Watson
"Are they cooked or can they turn back the clock"

• Wilson. Does he have the ability to not only play Russell Wilson ball? Will he acquiesce to Paytons system?
  
• Rodgers. Need to see if he find enough of his game to take advantage of what is supposed to be a great defense? Will the Jets be a great defense again; we all know how inconsistent defense can be year to year.
  
• Watson. Still trying to show he can be the first QB to basically throw off now 3 years of rust and bad play. But even if he does, at times he was a bad a decision maker with the Texans. It was enough to win weak South divisions and then quickly lose in the playoffs, but will it fly in a very tough North?
  

Tier 7: Jimmy G/Ryan Tannehill
Definition of long term tick-above-league-average QB. How long before their teams get tired of them?

Tier 8: Kenny Picket
Hard to tell. At times looked like Tier 7 level last year with had some nice late game heroics/moxie, but he was way too inconsistent. He left a lot out on the field. His line was horrid though, he could easily jump up as the team gets better around him and he progresses.

Tier 9: Gardner Minshew -- Merely warming the spot to be held by Richardson. Though, he will probably have a great game against his former Jags and have enough highs or great plays that make Colts fans think they found their guy and maybe they should trade Richardson to fill holes on the roster.

N/A until on the field: CJ Stroud

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