(10-22-2023, 02:34 PM)Jag149 Wrote:

(10-22-2023, 01:36 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Such a stupid argument - I never said jack [BLEEP] about a lineman  - I'm saying they could have taken a player from their board that ranked similarly to Miller but a position they actually need instead of adding a long shot to an already existing logjam of linebackers. 

It was a stupid use of that draft capital. Every fourth rounder is gonna be a crapshoot to be worth a [BLEEP] or not. May as well gamble on one that may actually help you this century.

Well, if you want to play the odds this article is not bad. (I am sure it is not written in stone however)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round

Here is what they say about 4th round success for a consistent starter.

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

Running Backs
The position has been devalued over the years but the statistics still show that it is better to draft early if you are looking for a starter.
[*]Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
[*]There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
[*]If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.
If you want a stud RB, they are likely to come from the first round. If you are looking for depth, the fourth round seems to be the place to go. This year Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the first round grades based on statistics it seems likely that one of the two will be a bust. However, this could be like 2007 when AP and Beastmode went in the first round. For the Chiefs, since 2007 they have taken a RB every draft except 2010. Both Charles and Davis were the highest drafted both coming in the 3rd round.

---