(11-21-2023, 10:10 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote:

(11-21-2023, 09:53 PM)rfc17 Wrote: I know lots have said this game is the defecto afc south championship game. Texans win they'll have the same record as us, will own the tiebreaker, and have easier schedule rest of the way.  What I didn't realize though is if we win we'll essentially own the tiebreaker over them. It wouldn't be official as there will be a couple scenarios they'd beat us out but the final 6 weeks would have to break in such specific ways its almost statistically impossible.  They'd be more likely to just finish with a better record than win the tiebreaker.  Crazy how wildly different the standings will look depending on who wins.

Saying all that I have no idea how this game plays out. Obviously feels like we've got our momentum back.  Doug seems to get these guys ready for important games.  Houston will actually feel some pressure for the first time this year now that they all of a sudden have expectations.  But on the otherhand they seem designed to give us problems.  Strong defensive line.  Accurate QB.  Big play WR.  Similar style as niners.  As others have said we'll need to get pressure on Stroud.  Safeties back and not allow them to get big chunk plays.  Hopefully we jump on them early which we should have done in first game if not for dropped touchdowns, missed field goals, etc.... This game is a total coin flip to me.  If we bring our A game I think we win.

The next tie breaker after head to head is divisional record and they lost to the clots and we didn't.  They also have to play the tacks twice.  If we win in Houston, for them to regain the tie breaker, we'd have to lose to the tacks the next time we play them and they'd have to sweep the tacks as well.  We'd then wind up with the same divisional record and it would fall to the next tie breaker which is common opponents I thinks which would factor in our win against the falcons and their loss against them.