(11-21-2023, 10:10 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote:

(11-21-2023, 09:53 PM)rfc17 Wrote: I know lots have said this game is the defecto afc south championship game. Texans win they'll have the same record as us, will own the tiebreaker, and have easier schedule rest of the way.  What I didn't realize though is if we win we'll essentially own the tiebreaker over them. It wouldn't be official as there will be a couple scenarios they'd beat us out but the final 6 weeks would have to break in such specific ways its almost statistically impossible.  They'd be more likely to just finish with a better record than win the tiebreaker.  Crazy how wildly different the standings will look depending on who wins.

The next tie breaker after head to head is divisional record and they lost to the clots and we didn't.  They also have to play the tacks twice.  If we win in Houston, for them to regain the tie breaker, we'd have to lose to the tacks the next time we play them and they'd have to sweep the tacks as well.  We'd then wind up with the same divisional record and it would fall to the next tie breaker which is common opponents I thinks which would factor in our win against the falcons and their loss against them.

Yes they'd need to win their 3 remaining games against titans and colts and we'd need to lose to titans.  Looking at next tiebreaker, common opponents, it's almost easier to look at uncommon opponents since fewer games to count. The team with the worse record against uncommon opponents would by definition have a better record against common opponents. We've already played our 3 games against uncommon opponents going 1-2 (bills, chiefs, niners). They've only played one of their three beating the cardinals. Which means they'd have to lose to both the broncos and jets. With them having to lose two games that means we'd have to lose at least 4 of our last 6 to finish in a tie with them where they could win a tiebreaker.  This is all far too improbable.  If we win Sunday the tiebreaker is essentially ours.  

Obviously easiest thing to do would be win the division outright but would be nice having that tiebreaker in our back pocket considering the easier schedule they have down the stretch.

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