(03-15-2024, 11:42 AM)Caldrac Wrote:

(03-15-2024, 10:58 AM)cland Wrote: I think this trade makes sense if it lines up with the current Texans draft board. Essentially that picks from 23-42 on the Houston draft board are very similar in terms of grading, and that the decline in player value is well worth a high 2nd in next years draft.

They're also counting on the fact that Minnesota's Sam Darnold (or possibly a rookie QB that Minn would trade their 2 1st rounders to go get) won't pay off in 2024.

In terms of the "magical" draft value chart, the Texans come out ahead.

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I also like that this move counters the number of veteran, short-term contracts that the Texans have made this year.  Allowing them to backfill positions with the draft...assuming, of course, that you draft well.

It's also early. I am not biased as much as some of our fanbase. I see a lot of folks [BLEEP] on this trade on Twitter. They may not be done for all we know. 

They could be eyeing a player to trade for. Especially if they know they're entering next year's draft already with a pair of second round picks. 

I think it's smart. Wouldn't shock me if they land a quality player or two in this draft class. They did it last year.

As you said, one of the things Caserio did in the last draft, was to move up and down the board throughout the draft (mostly up.)  From a top-level draft strategy, moving your draft pick is exactly how to line up BAP with team needs (assuming your getting a 'fair' deal on the trades.)  Now, that's not to say that some luck didn't play a factor, and I generally think there's more value in moving down, but what he did worked.  He took a lot of flack for giving up so much to get Will Anderson, now that he's DROY and made the pro-bowl those critics are admitting they were wrong.

From my perspective, it's nice to see that Caserio can aggressively move down, in contrast to last years draft where he moved up.  Now like anything, it could be that the player at #23 is a 10-year pro-bowler that the Texans missed out on.  But from a draft picks odds chart %50 of first rounders become starters, where as %33 percent of second rounder.  So 2 2nds vs. 1 1st is a %13 increase to the odds of getting a starter.

TLDR - This trade could be good or bad, check back in 3 years.

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